We’re heading into Week 14, and it was a wild start to the week. If the Thursday Night Football game is any indication, this weekend might have some insane finishes.
In the early window of games, we have found some nice value and solid parlay opportunities, especially in divisional games. Find out more in my NFL parlay picks.
Week 14 NFL parlay picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Browns +5.5 (-110) + Jets +10 (-110) = +264 (at BetMGM)
Browns +5.5 (-110)
All eyes will be on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 as they host the Cleveland Browns in a key AFC North Division game.
While the Bengals picked up a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs with Joe Burrow remaining perfect in his career against Patrick Mahomes, Burrow has failed to earn a win in four career tries against the Cleveland Browns.
There is a little bit of concern here, as wide receiver Amari Cooper showed up on the injury report with a late-week injury. Even more so, the Browns are 5-13 against the spread in the past 18 games inside the division while going just 2-7 ATS in the past nine following a straight up win.
However, this is also a Cleveland team that pounded Cincinnati 32-13 in a Monday night game in Week 8 at FirstEnergy Stadium on Halloween. Not many saw that coming.
Jets +10 (-110)
In the second end of the parlay, the Jets head to western New York catching double digits. New York Jets topped Buffalo Bills outright in Week 9 as an 11-point underdog in New Jersey.
We’re not expecting an outright win by Gang Green. Simply taking the Jets plus the points is a fantastic value, however, as New York is 3-1 ATS in the past four as an underdog of 6.5 or more points.
The Jets are 5-0 ATS in the past five following a non-cover and 4-0 ATS in the past four after a straight-up loss. The Bills are also just 1-4 ATS in the past five games as a favorite of 6.5 or more points, so this is a strong play in a key AFC East battle.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Seahawks -3.5 (-110) + Chargers +3.5 (-115) = +256 (at BetMGM)
Seahawks -3.5 (-110)
The Seattle Seahawks welcome the Carolina Panthers to the Pacific Northwest, and a home game in front of the 12s is a very favorable matchup for Seattle.
RBs DeeJay Dallas (ankle) and Kenneth Walker III (ankle) are each questionable and considered game-time decisions for Sunday’s game. The good news is that RB Travis Homer (knee) was taken off the injury report ahead of the Week 14 game, so the cupboard is not totally bare.
In addition, QB Geno Smith made it through practice this week with a right shoulder issue. He was limited Thursday but practiced in full, and he will be ready to roll against a Panthers pass defense which is just OK. Overall, Carolina is No. 19 in total defense.
The Panthers will be making their second trip to the Pacific Time Zone this season. The first occasion was a 24-10 loss on October 16 in Week 6, the first game under the tutelage of interim head coach Steve Wilks. In that game, the Panthers scored a lone defensive touchdown with a field goal.
QB Sam Darnold will get the start again, and he actually helped the Panthers look good two weeks ago in a 23-10 win over Denver. But again, that was against the hapless Broncos.
The Seahawks have won two of the past three games at home, going 2-1 ATS during the span. They were defeated 40-34 in overtime against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12, but Seattle won’t get beat in a second straight game at home by a team with a losing record.
Chargers +3.5 (-115)
In the second end of the parlay, you’ll have to wait until Sunday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers are a strong play at home against the Miami Dolphins in a prime-time affair.
Los Angeles is catching three and a hook on their home field, which is a great value. The Bolts covered the last time they were home against the Kansas City Chiefs on a Sunday night game in Week 11, catching five and a hook. In fact, as an underdog, the Chargers are 3-0 ATS this season when they are an underdog of three or more points.
As a road favorite, Miami failed to cover as 4-point favorites in Chicago in Week 9. It did narrowly cover in Detroit as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 8, winning 31-27. However, the Dolphins are 1-2 SU/ATS in three road games as a favorite, and the Bolts might even be worth playing as a moneyline play for a small-unit bet.
The concern is L.A.’s defense, which is No. 27 overall in total yards allowed. As long as the defense can do a little bit to slow down QB Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game, we’ll see the Bolts cover.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert will also be facing a shabby defense, as the Dolphins' pass D ranks No. 22 in the NFL, allowing 233.5 yards per game. This should be a fun and high-scoring matchup that comes down to the very end.
