The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to five units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re banking on the Texans giving up more touchdowns again this week, trying to find some value in a pair of backfields that are reshuffling, and playing a tight end in a plus-plus matchup.
Without further ado:
NFL Week 14 touchdown props
- Austin Walter anytime TD
- NYJ/NO defensive/special teams TD
- D’Wayne Eskridge anytime TD
- Jeff Wilson anytime TD
- Travis Kelce anytime TD
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 14 TD props
Austin Walter anytime TD (+400 at DraftKings) and defensive/special teams TD (+215)
The Saints are somehow 5.5-point favorites this week despite allowing more touchdowns over the last three weeks than any team in football. Of the 11 TDs allowed, it's been an even split of five passing TDs and four rushing TDs with two defensive TDs sprinkled in. This should be great news for New York’s Elijah Moore, but availability is key.
No player in football has been more profitable than Moore. He has five TDs over his last five games and offers rushing upside as well. The sad thing, however, is that Moore has been DNP in back-to-back practices, which hurts his availability for Sunday’s game. We will be watching his Friday practice report with a hopeful eye, but we’re pivoting to another Jet who is offering a solid price.
Running back Tevin Coleman is dealing with a concussion and is on the wrong side of questionable as well. The Jets will likely have to go with a backfield of Ty Johnson and Austin Walter. We rode Walter last week to poor results, but he should get a massive boost in snaps as Johnson is more of a prototypical third-down back.
Walter had nine carries and a score two games ago but was used sparingly last week. If Walter lands the early-down work, his +400 TD price is a great deal even against a New Orleans rush defense that is tough to run against. With the state of the Saints’ offense, Gang Green might not need long drives to put up points and get cracks in the red zone.
A defensive/special teams TD at +215 is also enticing here, as the Saints have allowed two defensive TDs in the last three games and the play under center here could be disastrous.
We’re splitting a full unit and going 0.5 units on Walter +400 and 0.5 units on a defensive/special teams +215.
D’Wayne Eskridge anytime TD (+700 at bet365)
Seattle’s D’Wayne Eskridge has carved out a nice role in the offense of late and offers versatility, as he can line up outside or in the slot. The second-round rookie has seen roughly 30 percent of the snaps over the last two games and has seen three targets in back-to-back games. He scored last week, which paid +500, and is paying an even better price (+700) for Week 14 versus a Houston team that sits dead last in success rate.
Fellow slot WR Freddie Swain played 21 passing snaps last week and saw three targets. Eskridge saw the same amount of targets in 17 passing snaps but is paying +700 to score compared to Swain’s +333. Eskridge has seen six targets on his last 25 passing routes (0.24 targets per route run).
Eskridge could also see a massive boost in snaps if DK Metcalf were to sit, as the starter has missed practices in back-to-back days and is currently questionable heading into Friday’s practice. This Eskridge price could fall dramatically if Metcalf is DNP on Friday.
Houston will be starting Davis Mills this week and that means this already awful offense will be even worse. Seattle should see plenty of short fields, and if last week’s 31-0 loss to the Colts is any indication, TD opportunities should be plenty for a Seattle offense that is beginning to gain some confidence as Russell Wilson gets back to his old self.
We’re dropping 0.57 units on the rookie receiver to win four units.
Jeff Wilson anytime TD (+120 at bet365)
The San Francisco 49ers have scored five rushing TDs over their last three games and are passing the ball at one of the lowest rates in football. They'll also likely be without running back Elijah Mitchell, who has missed practice all week with multiple injuries. Mitchell has rushed the ball an incredible 76 times over his last three games, and those carries are now headed elsewhere.
Matt Barrows (The Athletic’s 49ers beat writer) believes that Jeff Wilson will be the “frontrunner” to take over the starting role. Mitchell missed Week 11 and Wilson finished with 19 carries in that game. The 49ers could also be without receiver Deebo Samuel, which could force Kyle Shanahan to keep things on the ground even more in a matchup versus the Bengals, who have a better defensive EPA/play versus the pass than the rush.
Wilson is available at +120 as of Friday at bet365, while most books are not committing to opening their TD markets thanks to the injury uncertainties. Wilson was upgraded to full at practice on Thursday and has a clear path to a possible massive workload in a game that could top its total of 49 points.
This price might actually open at a more desirable number as Mitchell opened at +130 last week, but we’re getting on this early for the sake of the article and looking to win 1.5 units.
Travis Kelce anytime TD (-110 at bet365)
Travis Kelce has more TDs against the Raiders than any other team he’s seen in his career. He posted an 8/119/0 versus the Raiders back in Week 10 and went 16/235/2 against the Raiders in 2020 and 13/197/1 in two 2019 games. It’s safe to say that the Kansas City tight end gets up to play his AFC West rivals.
There are no price breaks on this plus-matchup for Kelce. bet365 has the best price at -110 while other books are listed as low as -135. But this is one of, if not, the best matchup for tight ends in football.
The Raiders have allowed the most TE touchdowns this season at 0.8 per game and no team allows more receiving yards to opposing TEs than Las Vegas at 67.8 yards. Logan Thomas and Dalton Shultz have scored in consecutive weeks versus this Las Vegas defense that has two outside linebackers that grade poorly in coverage.
There is nothing sexy about this pick other than a proven track record and a great matchup. We’re in it to win 1.00 unit.
Season to date: 19-43 SU +1.495 units
