Week 16 NFL Trend Report: Underdog Ravens Get Tested in San Fran

When putting this article together this week, I couldn’t help but think to myself that there are a lot of team total-related trends here — just one of those weeks in the latest NFL odds, I guess.

Team totals aren’t an incredibly popular betting market, but maybe they should be, because it’s an easier handicap if you think about it. When betting a team total, you’re simply narrowing your analysis down to an offense vs. a defense, which eliminates a lot of factors that are involved in a traditional full-game bet. 

I usually have at least one team total on my card this week, but I’ll likely set a personal record for the amount I play in Week 16 odds — what could go wrong? 

Enough about me though. Taking a look at league-wide NFL betting trends, Week 15 belonged to home teams who went 11-4-1 ATS. Perhaps late-season travel is starting to take a toll while unfamiliar weather conditions might keep some teams from playing their best.

Don’t read too much into one week though, it’s just something to monitor (and perhaps act on) in the final weeks of the regular season.

Best of luck with your NFL picks this week and Happy Holidays!

Best NFL Week 16 betting trends

Saints vs Rams

The trend: The Rams are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games played in December 

I think it’s fair to say that Sean McVay’s teams finish the regular season strong, especially at home where they’ve gone 10-1-1 ATS within this trend. Another trend for this matchup has seen the New Orleans Saints go a brutal 6-14-1 ATS after a win since the start of the 2021 season. The Los Angeles Rams are currently favored by four.

See all Saints vs Rams trends for Week 16.

Bengals vs Steelers

The trend: The Steelers are 20-6-4 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog

It’s been quite a run as a home dog for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are getting 2.5 points against the Cincinnati Bengals. Mason ‘The Red-Nosed Reindeer’ Rudolph will get the start for the Steelers, which makes backing them a tough sell, but is he really that much of a downgrade from Pickett and Trubisky? 

See all Bengals vs Steelers trends for Week 16.

Bills vs Chargers

The trend: The Bills have gone Under in eight of their last 10 games

This stretch of Unders includes games vs elite quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Now the Buffalo Bills will face… Easton Stick! The total for the game is at 42.5 and will likely come down to how many points the Bills want to score. Maybe we’ll see a better effort from the Los Angeles Chargers defense after Brandon Staley was sent packing.

See all Bills vs Chargers trends for Week 16.

Lions vs Vikings

The trend: The Lions are averaging 32.02 points per game when playing indoors this season

This trend of high-scoring games encompasses the seven home games for the Detroit Lions, as well as road games in New Orleans where they scored 33 points, and in Los Angeles where they put up an impressive 41 points against the Chargers. Their team total for this matchup is 24.5. The Minnesota Vikings' defense has been coming on strong lately, but they've primarily been matched up against mediocre offenses. 

See all Lions vs Vikings trends for Week 16.

Colts vs Falcons

The trend: The Colts are an NFL-best 11-3 to the Over on their team total

The Indianapolis Colts have developed into a surprisingly strong offensive team behind first-year head coach, Shane Steichen, and backup QB Gardner Minshew. Their team total for this game is at 21.5, which is a number they’ve topped in seven of eight games in an indoor stadium (six times at home, once in Houston). Five of the Atlanta Falcons' last seven opponents have also eclipsed this total. 

See all Colts vs Falcons trends for Week 16.

Browns vs Texans

The trend: The Browns have allowed four opponents to score 29 or more points in their road games this season

Elite defense is the first thing a lot of us think of when it comes to the Cleveland Browns, but they’ve actually been god-awful on the road. It’s crazy, but they rank dead last in points allowed on the road with 30.7 and rank first at home with 13.1. The Houston Texans team total is listed at 22.5, which is a number all six of Cleveland’s opponents on the road have topped.

See all Browns vs Texans trends for Week 16.

Seahawks vs Titans

The trend: The Titans are an NFL-worst 4-10 ATS on the second-half spread

As we saw last week against the Texans, the Tennessee Titans typically don’t finish strong (except for when they’re playing my Dolphins, dammit!). They’re averaging a brutal 7.8 second-half points, which is bad enough for 28th in the NFL. If you like the trend to continue, you can back the Seattle Seahawks on the second-half spread at -1.5.

See all Seahawks vs Titans trends for Week 16.

Commanders vs Jets

The trend: The Jets are 1-7 ATS in the first half at home

In a season full of ugly games, this one should crack the top five. Even against a defense as bad as the Washington Commanders, can the New York Jets truly be trusted to outscore them in the opening half? They’re favored by -1.5 in the first half and are averaging a league-low 5.1 first-half points at home, having been shut out in the first half in their last two games. 

See all Commanders vs Jets trends for Week 16.

Packers vs Panthers

The trend: The Panthers have gone Under their team total in all six of their home games this season

What a disgrace! The Carolina Panthers are averaging just 12.8 points per game at home and they’ve now scored 13 or less on eight occasions, regardless of the location. They’re averaging 0.7 offensive touchdowns per game at home, where they also rank last in yards per play. Their team total for this game is listed at 15.5.

See all Packers vs Panthers trends for Week 16.

Jaguars vs Buccaneers

The trend: Jacksonville is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games

Do you mean to tell me the Jacksonville Jaguars (who sell out their hometown fans for London every season) play better on the road? That appears to be the case, where they’ve also won eight of these 10 games outright. The Jags are a 1-point favorite in a potential buy-low/sell-high spot against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have won three straight games.

See all Jaguars vs Buccaneers trends for Week 16.

Cardinals vs Bears

The trend: The Cardinals have gone Under in six of seven road games this season

This one is interesting when you consider that the Arizona Cardinals have gone Over in every single one of their home games this season. The total for this game is 44.5 and the average combined score in Arizona road games this season is just 35.7. The Chicago Bears are on an Under tear of their own, with it hitting in six of their last seven games.

See all Cardinals vs Bears trends for Week 16.

Cowboys vs Dolphins

The trend: The Cowboys are 12-1 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2021 season

In what’s being dubbed by many (not me, of course) as the ‘Fraud Bowl’, the Miami Dolphins will need to be on high alert for an elite performance from the Dallas Cowboys, who’ve been fantastic at bouncing back after a loss. Dallas is 3-0 ATS in this spot this season, but this will also be their first time as an underdog in this situation, where they’re 0-3 ATS on the year. 

See all Cowboys vs Dolphins trends for Week 16.

Patriots vs Broncos

The trend: The Patriots are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games

No need to get fancy with this one as this trend is as straightforward as it gets and tells us everything we need to know about the New England Patriots — they absolutely stink and are an embarrassment to Tom Brady’s legacy! The Denver Broncos will be happy to be back at home for the holidays after being on the road for three straight games. Denver is currently favored by 6.5 points.

See all Patriots vs Broncos trends for Week 16.

Raiders vs Chiefs

The trend: In 11 career starts against the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to an average of 35.5 points per game

Excuse my language, but Patrick Mahomes beats the living shit out of the Las Vegas Raiders defense whenever he plays them. The Kansas City Chiefs scored no fewer than 28 points in these 11 games and scored 35 or more in six of these contests. This includes dropping 31 on them a month ago. In what’s been a difficult year for the KC offense, this might be a bit of a ‘get right’ game for them with the playoffs right around the corner. The Chiefs’ team total is sitting at 26.5 points.

See all Raiders vs Chiefs trends for Week 16.

Giants vs Eagles

The trend: The Eagles have wins of 24 or more points in three of their last four games against the Giants

Small sample size here, but a very relevant one, especially with the Philadelphia Eagles as an 11.5-point favorite. Speaking of ‘get right’ spots, Philadelphia desperately needs to get back on track after three straight losses. The New York Giants looked like they were about to turn a corner, then got smacked by 18 against the Saints. That was New York’s seventh loss by 15 or more points this season.

See all Giants vs Eagles trends for Week 16.

Ravens vs 49ers

The trend: The Ravens are 19-3-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog

The best game of the week has the best trend of the week. What a roll for the Baltimore Ravens, who REALLY play up to the competition! They’re a five-point underdog for this game, which seems like a lot of points, but we must consider that the San Francisco 49ers smack almost everyone they play. 10 of the 49ers' wins this season have come by double-digits, including in each of their last six games. Regular season games don’t get much bigger than this!

See all Ravens vs 49ers trends for Week 16.

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