The Super Bowl odds opened with the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. Early betting action echoed that opinion, moving Kansas City to -2 at many mainstream sportsbooks on Sunday night.
Should that early line movement shape your NFL picks for Super Bowl 59? I dig into the historical data below.
Super Bowl 59 odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs |
-2 -110 |
-130 | Over 49.5 -110 |
 Philadelphia Eagles |
+2 -110 |
+110 | Under 49.5 -110 |
Super Bowl odds courtesy of Caesars.
Super Bowl odds early movement augurs well for Chiefs
Early line movement has been a divining rod of sorts when it comes to Super Bowl profits.
Over the past 17 Big Games, the early opinion — most often the “sharp” opinion — has been on the right side of the Super Bowl spread 12 times. That’s a 70.6% cover rate since Super Bowl XLII back in 2008.
Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as big as a 3-point underdog versus the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, and initial action on the Chiefs trimmed that spread to +1. Kansas City would go on to win outright, 25-22, in overtime.
Super Bowl betting is a different echo system than any other NFL game. There are two weeks of ramp up, but the majority of action on the Super Bowl odds comes in the first 48 hours after opening and the final 48 hours before kickoff.
Those initial wagers are most often respected bets from professional gamblers, which help mold the point spread, and bookmakers will move their odds off that analysis. As we get closer to kickoff, the casual fans and “public” players will start placing wagers on the weekend of the game, but that action will be betting into a market that has already moved and been manipulated by the early opinion.
Recent results
This prominent predictor doesn’t always pan out, however. Before last year’s win and cover by Kansas City, the early line movement for both Super Bowl LVII and LVI ended up being toward the losing side of the spread.
The Los Angeles Rams opened at -3.5 and moved to -4.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022, but while the Rams won the game 23-20, they failed to cover as favorites in Las Vegas. In 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles moved from -1 to -2.5 and closed at -1.5 against the Chiefs yet lost outright 38-35 in Arizona.
Currently, Kansas City is available as an expensive 1.5-point favorite (-115) or at -2 (-110) for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on February 9.
Here’s a look at the last 17 Super Bowl ATS results and what side the early line movement favored:
| Super Bowl | Matchup | Open | Early Move | Close | Early Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Chiefs vs. Eagles | Chiefs -1.5 | Chiefs -2 | TBD | TBD |
| 58 | Chiefs vs. 49ers | Chiefs +3 | Chiefs +2.5 | Chiefs +1 | Win |
| 57 | Chiefs vs. Eagles | Eagles -1 | Eagles -1.5 | Eagles -1.5 | Loss |
| 56 | Rams vs. Bengals | Rams -3.5 | Rams -4 | Rams -4.5 | Loss |
| 55 | Buccaneers vs. Chiefs | Buccaneers +3.5 | Buccaneers +3 | Buccaneers +3 | Win |
| 54 | Chiefs vs. 49ers | Pick 'em | Chiefs -1 | Chiefs -1.5 | Win |
| 53 | Patriots vs. Rams | Patriots -1.5 | Patriots -2 | Patriots -2.5 | Win |
| 52 | Patriots vs. Eagles | Eagles +5.5 | Eagles +3.5 | Eagles +4.5 | Win |
| 51 | Patriots vs. Falcons | Patriots -3 | Patriots -3 (-120) | Patriots -3 | Win |
| 50 | Broncos vs. Panthers | Panthers -3.5 | Panthers -4.5 | Panthers -4.5 | Loss |
| 49 | Patriots vs. Seahawks | Patriots -1 | No Move | Patriots -1 | Draw |
| 48 | Broncos vs. Seahawks | Pick 'em | Seahawks -1 | Seahawks +2.5 | Win |
| 47 | 49ers vs. Ravens | Ravens +4 | Ravens +3.5 | Ravens +4.5 | Win |
| 46 | Patriots vs. Giants | Giants +3.5 | Giants +3 | Giants +3 | Win |
| 45 | Packers vs. Steelers | Packers -2 | Packers -3 | Packers -3 | Win |
| 44 | Colts vs. Saints | Colts -3.5 | Colts -6 | Colts -4.5 | Loss |
| 43 | Steelers vs. Cardinals | Cardinals +6.5 | Cardinals +5.5 | Cardinals +6.5 | Win |
| 42 | Patriots vs. Giants | Giants +13 | Giants +11.5 | Giants +11.5 | Win |
