We’re in the end game people. Christmas is less than a week away and if you haven’t started your shopping yet, get ready for some L’s on December 25.
The same can be said about betting NFL odds for a festive Week 16. If you want Xmas bliss at the book this holiday weekend, you’d better start shopping the opening spreads and totals now. That said, you can sometimes get a great last-minute deal after the crowds have cleared.
I look at the NFL Week 16 odds and tell you which sides and totals to bet now and which ones you may want to wait until later to wager.
Week 16 bet now, bet later picks
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at New York Jets: Bet Now
- Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3.5): Bet Later
- New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (Under 35.5): Bet Now
- Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Under 51): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at New York Jets: Bet Now
Week 16 starts in East Rutherford, where the Jets host the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. New York was as big as a 2-point look-ahead favorite but after Gang Green’s tough loss to Detroit and Jacksonville’s comeback win in OT over Dallas, this spread is swinging quickly.
The Jags re-opened +1 and the juice is very loose, sitting as high as -120 on Sunday evening. Some books have already jumped down to a pick’em. Add to the fact that pro groups and sharp bettors have had a crush on Trevor Lawrence & Co. for the past month, and Jacksonville is likely showing up as a road favorite by the time Thursday rolls around.
The extended forecast is calling for a miserable night in New Jersey, with rain, wind, and “feels like” temperatures hovering around freezing. That may be enough to keep this spread from going any further but if you like the Jaguars, you need to grab them with a bonus point right now.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3.5): Bet Later
This spread is going to Bengals -4 and beyond. Cincinnati is the hottest team in the NFL right now, reeling off six straight winners and covering in all of those games.
The Bengals did need some help from the Buccaneers' buttery fingers this past Sunday, turning around a 17-3 deficit thanks to a tidal wave of Tampa turnovers. Joe Burrow & Co. stay on the road for the second week with a short turnaround on December 24.
The Patriots are coming off a freak loss in Las Vegas, with that last-second foolishness spoiling a hard-fought game on the road. New England returns to Foxboro for this Saturday's showdown with Cincinnati, opening as 3.5-point underdogs and quickly seeing the vig spike on the other side.
The Bengals are busted up on the defensive side of the ball, with starting DEs Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson nursing injuries and the secondary running thin. Cincy was getting rolled by the Bucs in the first half of Week 15 before Tampa gave the Bengals the game on a platter.
If you can’t fade Belichick’s boys at home in December — The Hoodie is 34-23-2 ATS in those contests — then wait for more points. Because they’re coming.
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (Under 35.5): Bet Now
The weather outside is frightful for Xmas Eve in Cleveland. That’s when the Browns host the Saints for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The extended forecast is calling for snow showers, temperatures that feel like zero degrees, and — most impactfully — winds gusting up to 60 mph.
Mix that mess with two offenses struggling to put up points and you have the lowest Over/Under total of the entire 2022 season. This number hit the board as high as 35.5 points and respected online shops saw play on the Under slim this total to 35 points.
Should this total close at 35.5 or lower, it would be the shortest O/U since Chicago played Minnesota on December 29, 2019. That total closed at 35.5, and the Bears won 21-19, going Over the total in the process. And while totals of 35.5 or less have pumped out a 12-7 O/U mark since 2010, this extreme weather along with two offenses ranked 23rd and 26th in EPA per play since November is giving good value to the Under now.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Under 51): Bet Later
This is the big one in the NFC. The Eagles come to Arlington on Christmas Eve looking to secure the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the conference. The look-ahead total for this game was sitting at 50 points this past week and early play on the Over has pumped up this total to as high as 51 points on Sunday night.
But while there’s plenty of firepower on the field, you also have two very strong defenses dueling in Big D. Philadelphia sits No. 7 in EPA allowed per play since November and goes after the Cowboys with an aggressive pass rush that has 13 sacks the past two games.
Dallas’ defense just gave up 40 points in the overtime loss to Jacksonville but has remained among the elite all season, sitting Top 3 in DVOA and EPA allowed per play while playing with an element of danger, collecting 26 takeaways and 49 sacks.
These rivals played in Philadelphia back in Week 6 with Cooper Rush under center for the Cowboys. That game closed with a 42.5-point total and the Eagles won 26-17 — just getting over the number. Divisional games have leaned to lower-scoring finishes and a 61% winning run for Unders this season.
If you don’t think the Eagles and Cowboys will light up the scoreboard like a Christmas tree, push pause on that Under bet and see how tall this total will go.
