Week 1 was about as wild as it gets, with shocking upsets (rip to all Bengals backers in survivor pools), unexpected breakouts (looking at you, J.K. Dobbins), and the Giants, Browns, and Jets never failing to disappoint... by being disappointments.
All that craziness led to a 2-3 week for me with my NFL player props, so we've got a reasonably low bar to pass for an improvement in Week 2.
My bounce-back week started with some tough luck in TNF, but my NFL picks today provide more optimism in backing a pair of WRs to exploit iffy defenses, a 3DRB to continue getting work in the pass game, and Travon Walker ravaging the Browns' offense.
Latest NFL prop picks
Walker o0.75 sacks
-140 at DraftKings
Hill o11.5 rec yards
-110 at bet365
Williams long rec o21.5 yards
-115 at Caesars
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 2
Travon Walker Over 0.75 sacks
The No. 1-overall pick two years ago, Travon Walker was underwhelming with just 3.5 sacks. Last season he took a step forward, finishing with 10 sacks (and six in his last seven games), then kicked off this season with two sacks and throwing around grown men like they're children.
Bully ball from Travon Walker (44). pic.twitter.com/Hv0cqv9mHc
— Ryan Fowler (@_RyanFowler_) September 8, 2024
Walker's sack prop has already gained some steam, which does make sense because the Cleveland Browns offensive line is beat-up and looked horrendous last week against Dallas — and quarterback Deshaun Watson looked even worse.
With both starting tackles injured, the Browns allowed pressure on 43% of Watson's dropbacks, and his inability to see open receivers (and general lack of pocket composure) led to him getting sacked six times and taking a whopping 17 hits — which, per the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, was the most in a single game since Week 3... of 2006.
Jack Conklin is trending in a positive direction, but he and Jedrick Wills — along now with guard Joel Bitonio — were limited in practice. Even if some of them play, it will be at less than 100% and Watson looks like such a trainwreck that Walker should add to his total.
If all three are out... then hoo boy it's open season.
Pick made on 9-13 at 1:28 p.m. ET
Justice Hill Over 11.5 receiving yards
All the hype for the Baltimore Ravens this offseason was on the acquisition of running back Derrick Henry — but in Week 1 it was backup Justice Hill who was more productive in the yardage department.
Sure, it was all through the passing game but yards are yards... and I like Hill to again chip in with some passing game production in Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Hill was the clear passing back for the Ravens, taking all 11 third-down snaps where an RB was in the backfield, and he actually out-snapped Henry 43-37.
Baltimore should see more rushing success against Las Vegas than it did last week, but the Ravens' offensive line isn't great; I'd expect Maxx Crosby and the blitz-heavy Raiders to still pressure Jackson into some quick check-downs, where Hill can top a low receiving yards total.
The veteran RB ran a route on 28 of his 43 snaps in Week 1, getting targeted eight times and turning that into six catches for 52 yards. Over his last six games, Hill has registered 31, 64, 26, 11, 34, and 52 receiving yards — and three of those games were blowout wins, which gives added confidence that he'll still see some targets even if Baltimore pulls away.
Industry projections range as high as 20.5 yards for Hill this week, accounting for a slightly more run-heavy game, but that still gives some buffer on 11.5 yards, which is just too low of a total.
Pick made on 9-13 at 11:10 a.m. ET
Jameson Williams longest reception Over 21.5 yards
This matchup between the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers gets the "shootout alert" stamp of approval this week, with Detroit's Week 1 breakout receiver my focal point.
All of Jameson Williams' odds look good this week — but the longest reception market stands out the most.
Williams went off on SNF last week, hauling five catches for 121 yards, including receptions of 27, 36, and 52 yards.
Finally healthy and able to showcase his 4.25 40-speed, Williams had the fourth-highest average depth of target last year (among WRs with at least 40 targets) and last week played 85% of the Lions' offensive snaps — a huge bump considering he only played 70% of the snaps in 2/15 games last year.
The speedster also has a juicy matchup in the wounded Bucs, who lost *checks notes* four defensive backs in last week's game, including their Nos. 2 and 3 CBs and star S Antoine Winfield Jr., all of whom seem unlikely to play.
He's on the injury report with an ankle ailment but is expected to be good to go on Sunday. Even if he does play a lower snap count than Week 1, the explosive play potential against this depleted secondary is too good to shy away from.
His receiving yardage is also sitting around 45.5, which I'm also on, and barring a late announcement that he'll be extra limited, I'd also look at an alt-total of 60/70+ yards — especially if he can get 25-30 yards on one play.
Pick made on 9-12 at 11:27 a.m. ET
Terry McLaurin Over 47.5 receiving yards
Another guy who had a rough week, Terry McLaurin logged just two catches for 17 yards in Week 1 — but I'm trusting "Scary Terry" to get back to his usual form against a New York Giants defense that was equally scary...
...to Giants fans.
The G-Men made Sam Darnold look like Fran Tarkenton last Sunday, as he completed 11 straight passes to start the game and logged 145 yards as the Vikings cruised to a 28-6 laugher, and this defense is chock-full of replacement-level players at every level, especially in the secondary.
Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels looked more comfortable passing as his NFL debut went on, and McLaurin still dominated all Commanders players in snaps and led the WR room in targets.
McLaurin, who predominantly lines up on the left side, should see a lot of right-side CB Deonte Banks, who gave up three catches on five targets for 56 yards in Week 1, including 47 yards to Justin Jefferson. Per ProFootballFocus, Banks is 22nd in yards allowed per coverage snap and tied for 19th in explosive pass plays allowed rate out of 32 defensive-right cornerbacks with at least 255 coverage snaps on the right side since the start of 2023.
Projections range as high as 60 yards for McLaurin this week; most books are currently offering this at 52.5, but FanDuel is hanging a 47.5 at regular juice — I love the extra edge here for the unquestioned WR1 to exploit a scary-good matchup.
Pick made on 9-11 at 4:26 p.m. ET
Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions
In the wake of Stefon Diggs getting shipped out of town during the offseason, expectations were sky-high for the Buffalo Bills' second-year tight end.
However, Week 1 was an absolute dud as he caught one pass (on two targets) against a bad Arizona defense — but there are a number of encouraging factors that have me betting on Dalton Kincaid odds for TNF.
He played in 84% of Buffalo's offensive snaps against Arizona; a number he matched just twice last season, both being games in which fellow TE Dawson Knox was sidelined... except Knox DID play last week.
He also played in 36/39 second-half snaps, so Kincaid is getting the snap volume consistent with a key contributor. Plus, with rookie Keon Coleman the only wide receiver that stood out in terms of targets — and the likelihood that he could see a lot of Jalen Ramsey in a matchup against a Miami defense that is much better than Arizona overall — the need for another reliable passing target will be more pressing.
Bills QB Josh Allen did not shy away from Kincaid last year, as the rookie TE was targeted 4+ times in 14 of his 18 games last season and hauled in 5+ catches in 10 of his final 13 matchups.
Kincaid's receptions line sits at 4.5 — already down from the 5.5 total in Week 1 — and industry projections come out to around 4.9 catches for the sophomore. That puts the fair line for this prop at about -118, but BetMGM is currently hanging this at even money.
Pick made on 9-11 at 4:16 p.m. ET
NFL Week 2 prop betting card
- Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 receptions (+100)
- Terry McLaurin Over 47.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Jameson Williams longest reception Over 21.5 yards (-115)
- Justice Hill Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Travon Walker Over 0.75 sacks (-140)
Last week: 2-3, -1.49 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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