What’s better than opening up presents from Santa on Christmas? Winning money on NFL player props, of course. We’re bringing you our extensive Christmas Day prop card, which we hope turns your Christmas into anything but a silent night.
The Covers Elves have been working overtime so without further ado, our Week 16 free player props and predictions:
Latest NFL prop picks
- Davis Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Okwuegbunam Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Burrow Over 264.5 passing yards (-110)
- Chase Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Michel anytime TD (+240)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 16, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
NFL prop picks for Week 16
Free-Gabriel theory
The Bills will be without Cole Beasley this week versus the Patriots and Emmanuel Sanders’ availability is also up in the air. Outside receiver Gabriel Davis has been coming on of late and has seen his snap share increase in back-to-back weeks with a season-high 90 percent snap share versus the Panthers in Week 15. Davis finished that game with five grabs on sevens targets and a season-high 85 yards. He also added two scores for good measure. If Sanders is out, Davis could be in for another big day and even if Sanders does suit up, both players have lined up in the slot this year and should be featured in three-WR sets.
Davis is a big 6-foot-2 receiver with decent wheels (4.54 40-time) and has gained the trust and the ability to snag Josh Allen missiles. Gaining yards against the Patriots is hard for any receiver, as the Pats allow the second-fewest yards to opposing WRs, but Davis finished with a 2/30/1 on four targets against New England in the Wind Bowl three weeks ago.
Davis’ receiving yard total closed at 42.5 yards last week so his 46.5 yards heading into this weekend isn’t a big jump for the relatively unknown receiver.
Over the last three games, Davis has a 17% target share, which should hopefully increase as Beasley’s 20% target share will have to go somewhere. He’s recorded zero drops on his last 12 targets and all of those grabs have gone for more than 10 yards. His 12.0 yards before reception ranks eighth in the league among WRs with 20 or more receptions and he could top this total in three catches
PICK: Gabriel Davis Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Locked on Albert
Denver tight end Albert Okwuegbunam finally has a receiving prop market thanks to some great play over the last two games. The tight end has eight grabs on nine targets for 99 yards and a score over that stretch. Even with Noah Fant in the lineup, Albert-O is averaging roughly 50 percent of the snaps and has nearly matched the No. 1 tight end in production over the last two weeks.
The Denver passing game will get a bit of a boost on Sunday with Drew Lock under center. Lock is a bit more erratic but takes more chances than Teddy Bridgewater, which can result in some bigger plays downfield. Okwuegbunam caught both of his second-half targets from Lock last week and had a pair of 24-yard receptions. Fant hauled in two of his three Lock targets for just seven yards versus the Bengals.
The Raiders allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Their 63 yards allowed per game to TEs is the fourth-highest in football. We’ve been waiting for an Albert-O market to open, and that day is finally here. We love this Over 16.5 receiving yards and this number is already trending upwards.
PICK: Albert Okwuegbunam Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Burrow vol. 2
Joe Burrow finished with a season-high 416 passing yards vs. the Ravens back in Week 7. He needed only 23 completions to do it and will have a chance to recreate those numbers again this Sunday against a Ravens’ secondary that has six corners on the IR and another questionable. Not one projected starter in the secondary is graded positively, per PFF, and CB Kevon Seymour and S Anthony Levine have played a total of 94 snaps this season.
Burrow hasn’t been stacking passing yards of late, but he'll be three weeks removed from his finger injury and has a healthy receiving corps ahead of the matchup. In the first meeting, his four best passing options (Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah) accounted for 393 of Burrow’s 416 yards.
The Ravens also like to give up big plays, as their 61 explosive passes allowed is the most in the league. Completions of 15 or more yards are happening at a 12% rate versus this defense. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in average explosive pass rate.
Burrow’s passing total sits at 264.5 yards, which is a five-week high, but is 15 yards fewer than Aaron Rodgers’ total last week versus the Ravens.
PICK: Joe Burrow Over 264.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Stack overflow
We’re stacking our Burrow play with an Over on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving total of 63.5 yards. Chase had eight catches on 10 targets in the first meeting, which he turned into a 200-plus yard performance and a score. Despite those impressive numbers, Baltimore DC Wink Martindale is not ready to double or triple team Chase like they did last week versus Davante Adams.
"Adams is one of the Top 2 receivers in the league and he's not No. 2. Aaron Rodgers is a Hall of Fame QB, and I don't think we're ready to buy a gold jacket for Joe," Martindale told reporters earlier this week when asked if Chase would see the Adams treatment this Sunday.
Chase has been held to under 60 yards in six of his last seven games but following a season-low three-yard outing last week, Joe Burrow should be looking to get the rookie Pro-Bowler involved early. Facing a shorthanded Baltimore secondary that ranks 29th in DVOA pass defense and 26th in dropback EPA should also help the Cincinnati receiver.
The 63.5 receiving yards is the lowest Chase’s total has been since Week 3 and we’re happy to stack it with our Burrow Over 264.5 passing yards prop.
PICK: Ja’Marr Chase Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Sony up
Darrell Henderson made his return to the lineup last week versus the Seahawks but it was Sony Michel who got the majority of the snaps and the red-zone work. Michel out-touched Henderson 18-8 and finished with 115 total yards. He also had all three of the RB red-zone rushes and played 73 percent of the snaps.
The books were high on Henderson, as his TD prop closed at +110 last week while Michel's closed at +150. In our opinion, these numbers were backward and despite Michel not scoring, he is clearly the preferred back and should be treated as such heading into Week 16’s matchup versus the Vikings.
Minnesota’s rush defense sits 25th in EPA, 21st in success rate and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (127). Minnesota will also likely be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen is still questionable. If the Rams get up, we could expect a heavy dose of Michel, who has averaged over 20 rushes over his last three games.
We still don’t understand the reasoning on the Michel TD price in relation to Henderson, but we’re content in taking the better price with the more preferred runner.
PICK: Sony Michel anytime TD (+240 at bet365)
Season to date: 103-98 +2.36 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
NFL Week 16 prop betting card
- Gabriel Davis Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Albert Okwuegbunam Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Joe Burrow Over 264.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Ja’Marr Chase Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Sony Michel anytime TD (+240 at bet365)
