Week 16 NFL Touchdown Props: WFT Rookie Strikes Paydirt

The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.

We’re hoping Santa brings us some touchdowns this Christmas because the COVID landscape is making things difficult in the TD prop market world. With that said, we’ve still dug up a handful of TD plays for Sunday that we hope to have better returns than that pair of new socks.

Without further ado:

NFL Week 16 touchdown props

• Emmanuel Sanders anytime TD (+260)
• Isaiah McKenzie anytime TD (+550)
• Tim Patrick anytime TD (+375)
• Jaret Patterson anytime TD (+200)
• Tyler Johnson anytime TD (+400)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

NFL Week 16 TD props

Emmanuel Sanders anytime TD (+260 at bet365) and Isaiah McKenzie anytime TD 0.5u (+550 at bet365)

We were coming in hot on the Gabriel Davis hype train heading into Week 16, as Cole Beasley was out and Emmanuel Sanders was working his way back from injury. Sadly, Davis has been put on the COVID list, which means it will likely be Sanders who gets the big reps on the outside after he was upgraded to a full participant at Thursday’s practice.

Davis had four touchdowns over the last three games, while Sanders missed most of Week 14 and all of last week’s game. Touchdowns from receivers are not a common occurrence against the Patriots, but with better weather conditions than the last meeting, Josh Allen will be looking to mimic his 2020 performance at Gillette Stadium, where he threw for four TDs.

Sanders is a one-unit play for us at +260 and we’re also going to put a half-unit down on Isaiah McKenzie at +550. McKenzie should start in the slot and offers big-play ability.

Tim Patrick anytime TD (+375 at bet365)

It’s the Drew Lock show this week in Vegas, as the Broncos will be going with Plan B as Teddy Bridgewater is out. Lock has proven to be inconsistent and a coach’s nightmare over the last two-plus seasons, but he does offer a slight boost to the Broncos’ deep passing game.

Interceptions and fumbles aside, Lock has tossed 24 TDs in his short NFL career, with just 18 starts to his name. He stepped into a relief role last week and immediately hit Tim Patrick with a 25-yard touchdown on just his second pass. He didn’t do much with the rest of his possessions but his consistency in looking at Patrick was tough to ignore. 

In his three games this year, Lock has targeted Patrick just as much as the other pass-catchers on the team. He targeted Patrick four times (2 for 4 for 32 yards) last week and is 4 for 8 this year when going the receiver’s way. Lock has completed just one of eight passes to Courtland Sutton this season and went 0 for 4 last week. 

Patrick is coming off a season-high 71 snaps last week (95%) and didn’t excel with Bridgewater’s conservative play under center, but Lock could possibly change that.

Vegas allows 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, which ranks 26th in the league and is only better than four other teams. Bridgewater threw for three TDs versus the Raiders in Week 6, with one of those scores going to Patrick. 

Patrick is paying +375 to score, which is better than Jerry Jeudy, Sutton and Noah Fant, giving this play some serious value. All three WRs have a similar target share since Week 11, with Patrick leading the way with four red-zone targets.

Jaret Patterson anytime TD (+200 at bet365)

Washington’s Antonio Gibson is dealing with a toe injury that forced him from Week 15’s game and has caused him to miss practice all week. With JD McKissic already on the IR, Ron Rivera may have to turn things over to Jaret Patterson, who carried four times in Gibson’s absence last week. He also scored a +500 touchdown that savvy live bettors jumped on when they saw Gibson hit the blue tent.

Patterson is just a 5-foot-8 running back, but he got the red-zone work last week ahead of Jonathan Williams and handled two of his four carries inside the 20 — one of them being a one-yard TD.

Gibson is still questionable, and a reason why Patterson’s TD price is at +200, but it's dropping quickly. If Gibson sits, this number could fall closer to +140. Gibson has dealt with multiple injuries this season and has missed time because of it. We’re betting on Patterson taking the No. 1 role this week. If Gibson does play, he's likely to be less than 100 percent. 

We’re hitting Patterson for one unit and taking the risk before Gibson’s status is confirmed, but the way his price is trending, it’s looking more like Patterson could have a big role versus the Cowboys.

Tyler Johnson anytime TD (+400 at bet365)

Tampa Bay offensive players are dropping like flies. Leonard Fournette is out, Chris Godwin is out, Mike Evans has had back-to-back DNPs and is highly questionable, while Antonio Brown has been limited but looks like he’ll suit up Sunday. With some open vacancies in the league’s highest-scoring offense, where is the best spot to put our money?

Last week, receivers Tyler Johnson (95%), Scott Miller (78%) and Jaelon Darden (55%) saw the extra snaps with the injuries to Evans and Godwin. Of those three, Johnson saw the most targets (seven) and turned them into four catches for 41 yards. Johnson plays primarily out of the slot which means he should still see plenty of work even if Brown draws back in.

Drops are an issue with Johnson, but he led all Tampa receivers with a 14.6% target share last week. He's played more snaps than Miller and Darden and has more familiarity with Tom Brady this season.

Johnson’s TD price is way down the list at +400 and is worth a half unit. Like most early-week TD picks this week, there are plenty of risks here, but getting a high-snap receiver in this offense at this price could return something nice.

Season to date: 21-46 -1.835u

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