Did you get everything you wanted for Christmas? Nope.
Well, you’re not alone, which is why the days proceeding December 25 are some of the busiest shopping days of the year. And while you’re righting those Xmas wrongs, you might as well start shopping the NFL Week 17 odds.
I give you a head start, pointing out the NFL spreads and totals you’ll want to bet right now and some Week 17 lines you may want to wait for market moves before getting your action down. Here are my “Bet Now, Bet Later” NFL odds for Week 17.
Week 17 bet now, bet later picks
- New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): Bet Now
- Miami Dolphins (-2) at New England Patriots: Bet Later
- San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 43.5): Bet Now
- Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (Over 43.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): Bet Now
Some books are waiting on an update on Jalen Hurts’ health for Week 17 while other shops have opened Philadelphia as 6.5-point home chalk to the Saints — just below the key number of a field goal.
Hurts sat out the Xmas Eve loss at Dallas with a sprained shoulder but Eagles coach Nick Sirianni told the media that Hurts would play in Week 17 rather than rest up for a playoff push if he's good to go. According to multiple reports, Hurts is pushing to play on New Year’s Day and there’s a “real chance” he’ll suit up on Sunday.
If Hurts is ruled in, this line is going through the touchdown spread and could flirt with double digits considering the sad state of the Saints. Even without Hurts under center, this Eagles defense should have no trouble shouldering the load against a NOLA attack ranked out 26th in EPA per play since November.
Miami Dolphins (-2) at New England Patriots: Bet Later
The home stretch of the schedule has been a beast for the Dolphins and continues to cramp Mike McDaniel’s style with a trip to Foxboro to play the Patriots in Week 17. Despite a four-game losing slide and a dismal Xmas Day performance at home, Miami opened as big as -2 at New England.
That spread is slipping quickly with early play on the Patriots, taking this line to as low as Dolphins -1 at respected online books Sunday night. New England hasn’t fared much better than its AFC East rival in recent weeks, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one hit pick’em and even jump the fence to Patriots -1 soon.
Miami desperately needs to stop the bleeding as its playoff hopes dim and New England is hot on its heels for the final Wild Card tickets in the AFC. The Fins did beat the Pats way back in Week 1 and Miami outgained Green Bay in Sunday's loss, but turnovers left a lump of coal in bettors' socks on Dec. 25. If you’re not completely down on the Dolphins, wait this one out and you’ll likely get some bonus points to play with.
San Francisco 49ers at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 43.5): Bet Now
This total is slowly creeping up, jumping from a low opener of 43 points and flirting with 44 as juice on the Over 43.5 climbs at known sharp books on Sunday night.
The Niners have the NFC West locked up but can make a run at the NFC’s top seed in the final two weeks of play and get to come inside and play on the fast track in Las Vegas in Week 17.
San Francisco’s attack hasn’t really skipped a beat since Brock Purdy took over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, with the 49ers ranked out No. 6 in EPA per play since the move. The Niners just hung 37 points on a very good Washington defense and face a Raiders team that has watched some pretty pitiful offenses put up points on their own turf (Patriots, Colts, Houston, Denver).
At least the Silver and Black counter that defensive downtick with a good offensive show for the Sin City faithful, owning the fifth-highest points per play at home in the NFL. That’s why Vegas is 4-1-1 Over/Under as a host this season.
San Francisco should have no trouble providing the lion’s share of scoring in this matchup of former Bay Area rivals, hanging scores of 38, 33, 35, and 37 over the past six contests. The total isn’t tall enough, so bet the Over now.
Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans (Over 43.5): Bet Later
This total opened between 44 and 44.5 points early Sunday morning and has ticked down to as low as 42.5 at some sportsbooks. However, a few respected online shops are clinging to 44 points and juggling the juice, leaving me to take a good look at how the scoring could shake out.
The last time we saw the Cowboys, they were effortlessly moving the chains and scoring points against an Eagles defense ranked among the league’s elite. Tennessee pales in comparison to Philadelphia, especially in the secondary. Injuries have the Titans’ pass defense running on fumes and now they face a Dallas air attack ranked out No. 4 in EPA per dropback since Dak Prescott's return from an early-season injury.
Tennessee is playing without starting QB Ryan Tannehill — which is a big reason why this number is so low — but let’s be honest: the Titans’ passing game wasn’t great with him under center. Rookie QB Malik Willis can at least run away from the Cowboys’ pass rush and thundering RB Derrick Henry will do his thing on the ground.
Another thing towing this total downward is the weather in Nashville, which is calling for rain on Thursday. But that's expected to clear by the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff, leaving calm and cool conditions but nothing that would slow down scoring.
If you’re ogling this Over, don’t mind the early money. Wait for the total to tumble before buying back the other side. Hell, Dallas might eclipse this number all on its own.
