Super Bowl LIX features a pair of powerhouse offenses and stingy defenses, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to pull off the first three-peat in NFL history by topping the Philadelphia Eagles at the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, February 9.
Kansas City topped Philly in Super Bowl LVII and my top NFL picks and Chiefs vs. Eagles predictions expect the championship pedigree of KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to lead the way to a third straight trip to Titletown, USA.
Chiefs vs Eagles predictions
Chiefs vs Eagles spread
Chiefs -2 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Expect oodles of warranted acknowledgment of the experience, coaching, and quarterback edges the Kansas City Chiefs have over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
While I agree with those factors, an edge I give the Chiefs that I haven’t seen highlighted as much yet is how much easier the Eagles' regular-season schedule was. Philly had the third-easiest strength of schedule during the regular season, per PFF, and the Eagles definitely didn’t have to face an opponent as complete as the Buffalo Bills during their run through the NFC.
I also think it’s easy to overlook the Kansas City offense's expansion with its full complement of skill-position talents. The Chiefs are healthier right now than they’ve been at any point during the season, and I expect to see a more dynamic offense under the brightest lights on February 9.
Chiefs vs Eagles Over/Under
Under 49.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
Weather won't be a factor inside the Caesars Superdome, and both the Eagles and Chiefs will have the luxury of a two-week layoff for their skill-position weapons. Additionally, as noted, we’re just beginning to see the best of the Kansas City offense.
We’re seeing an inflated total because Jalen Hurts aired it out more successfully against the Commanders in the AFC Championship Game, and Philly hung 55 on the scoreboard. With KC likely allocating a lot of attention to stopping Saquon Barkley, I’m skeptical Hurts can consistently connect with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert for chunk plays.
Of course, the same two-week break will enable defensive coordinators Vic Fangio and Steve Spagnuolo to counterpunch with their own rested and healthy personnel loaded with game-wrecking talents.
I also anticipate several long, clock-churning drives resulting in field-goal attempts instead of touchdowns because the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, allowed red-zone trips to result in touchdowns at the sixth- and eighth-lowest clips during the regular season.
Chiefs vs Eagles prop bet
A.J. Brown Over 69.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
My analysis
Brown closed with a receiving yards total of 68.5 for the NFC Championship Game and turned his eight targets into six receptions and 96 yards against Washington. It was the ninth time in 16 games he finished with 70+ receiving yards.
Additionally, the 68.5 total was tied for his second-lowest in this market dating back to the regular season, and there’s only been an adjustment of a single yard despite Philly having the luxury of largely abandoning the passing game in the second half and Brown garnering just two targets.
Fast forward to Super Bowl LIX, and I don’t envision the Eagles offense being able to take its foot off the pedal. Additionally, as noted, Brown should have opportunities to pad his stat line with the Chiefs keyed on Barkley.
Of course, Brown is also a matchup nightmare, and I fully expect this total to climb leading into Super Bowl Sunday. He paced all pass-catchers in ESPN's receiver scores while ranking third in PFF receiving grade among wideouts, after all.
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Chiefs vs Eagles live odds
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