NFL Week 17 is a weird slate of games.
With folks home for the holidays, Roger Goodell goes all in and has action scheduled for Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
That means smaller windows and a lot more money coming in on those matchups, which will have spreads and totals moving faster than Saint Nick on Xmas Eve. And that’s fast, clocking in at an estimated 3,125,000 miles per hour.
To get the best of the bookies, you need to make sure your Week 17 wagers and NFL picks have the best numbers backing them up. I single out the spreads and totals to "bet now" with lines hitting the board and also highlight some lines you may want to "bet later" after adjustments.
Week 17 bet now, bet later picks
- Dolphins (-5.5) at Browns: Bet Now
- Colts (-8.5) at Giants: Bet Later
- Broncos at Bengals (Over 47.5): Bet Now
- Falcons at Commanders (Under 47.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Miami Dolphins (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns: Bet Now
The Miami Dolphins are fighting to stay in the postseason hunt and could get an extra shot of motivation after the Broncos play the Bengals on Saturday.
A loss by Denver would be a boon to the Fins’ playoff plans while a Broncos win would keep the pressure on, knowing the Broncos battle Kansas City in Week 18 (Chiefs could be resting/fighting for No. 1 seed). Either way, Miami is in must-win mode at the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns look like they’re done with 2024. The team benched QB Jameis Winston for the wet noodle arm of Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Week 16. The result was six points and 125 yards passing.
Miami opened as a 5.5-point road favorite for Week 17 and we’re starting to see Dolphins -6 show up at some books. Cleveland has mustered 27 total points in the past three games, so Miami’s defense won’t get much pushback.
If you think the Dolphins can make a late-season surge to the postseason, grab them now below the key number.
Best odds to bet Dolphins -5.5 right now
Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) at New York Giants: Bet Later
Coming off a shootout win over Tennessee to stay alive in the AFC race, the Indianapolis Colts are also pushing for the postseason. However, Indianapolis needs help to make the tournament.
The Colts must win out while the Broncos and Chargers need to lose for Indy to slide into the seventh and final AFC playoff seed. Denver plays on Saturday and is currently a 3-point underdog at Cincinnati.
Should the Broncos beat the Bengals, Indianapolis’ postseason hopes are toast. That would force a market move, with the hefty 8.5-point spread against the New York Giants getting a trim.
But even with motivations mixed for the Colts, covering against the G-Men won’t take much. New York is dead in the water and in the hunt for the worst record and No. 1 pick in the draft.
If you believe in Denver getting it done in Cincy, stick a pin in the Colts and come back after the Saturday game goes final.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 47.5): Bet Now
As mentioned, the Denver Broncos battle the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday in an important AFC affair for those clubs clamoring for a wild-card ticket to the tournament.
Denver is starting to look like a team nobody wants to find on the other end of the bracket, holding up as one of the best defenses in the NFL but now putting up serious points in recent outings.
The Broncos have scored a collective 266 points in their last five games and while those tallies have come against sub-par defenses, Denver takes on another porous stop unit in Cincinnati.
The Bengals are an Over bettor's wet dream, with a 10-5 O/U count built on a bad, bad defense and an explosive downfield attack. That’s panned out to an average of 56 combined points per game.
The extended forecast for Paycor Stadium looks good for Saturday, with game-time temperatures at a balmy 58 degrees and little to no wind to wreck those deep looks. Both the Broncos and Bengals rank among the Top 10 in "home run" passing plays of 20 yards or more.
I’m betting the Over now before it moves quickly to the key number of 49 points.
Best odds to bet Over 47.5 right now
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (Under 47.5): Bet Later
This total is already as high as 48.5 points at some books. It’s not hard to see why the initial action is on the Over, given the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons each put up a ton of points this past Sunday.
However, Atlanta was able to gash a garbage defense from the Giants and rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. will be making his first professional road start in Week 17. He may also be making that start without WR Drake London, who left Week 16 with a hamstring injury (head coach Raheem Morris downplayed its severity after the game).
Atlanta has seen its offense sputter away from home in recent road trips, failing to crack 21 points in each of its last four away games. The extended forecast for Landover is calling for rain and 23 mph gusts on Sunday night, making temperatures feel closer to freezing.
I’m not rushing to bet the Over, so we’ll see if this goes higher before thinking about betting the Under.
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