Sunday's Week 16 slate will wrap up indoors at Jerry's World as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to stay ahead in the NFC South with a win over Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys, who have won three of their last four games.
With the Bucs coming off a 500-yard performance last week, Rush getting this offense back on track, and the week's highest total on the board, my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions don't think it'll be too hard to find a few Over bets for Sunday night.
These are my best NFL picks for Sunday Night Football on December 22.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys SNF predictions
- Spread pick: Buccaneers -4 (-105 at bet365)
- Moneyline pick: Buccaneers moneyline (-200 at bet365)
- Over/Under pick: Under 48.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Best bet: Jalen McMillan Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Buccaneers vs Cowboys spread
This was a -3.5 on the look-ahead and re-opened at -4.5 at bet365 Sunday night before dipping to 4. I hate to fall victim to recency bias but that win over the Chargers was impressive. The Bucs put up 500 yards of offense and held Justin Herbert to zero third-down conversions. This team is looking scary on both sides of the ball and nobody is taking the Cowboys for granted now after they beat the Commanders, Panthers, and Giants over a four-game stretch.
There are too many ways the Bucs can beat you right now and they've shown they can win by margin. I like the Bucs at -3.5 and at -4 here. They should be able to flirt with 30 points as every team who has come into Dallas has put up at least 27 points except for Drew Lock and the Giants.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys total
I understand that the Cowboys are playing better and that their opponents are averaging 100 points per game at home, but I don't want to bet on Cooper Rush for the biggest total of the week. I'd much rather just bet on the Bucs' team total Over 26.5.
Dallas struggles to punch it in as Rico Dowdle has almost 1,100 total yards and just one rushing TD. I don't trust the Cowboys in the red zone to bet this Over, but still think there will be plenty of yards for both offenses.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys moneyline
If Tampa Bay wins 38-10, would you be really surprised? Tampa is one of the hottest teams heading into January. They are getting healthier on defense and have very few holes in their game.
My best bet
Jalen McMillan Over 36.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Dallas Cowboys' defense has to pick its poison on Sunday night. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can run all over them if they don't bring the safety into the box. If they gameplan to stop the run, then they have to contain Mike Evans, who just put up 159 yards and two TDs last week. The Tampa offense put up over 500 yards of offense vs. the Chargers last week and will be able to do whatever it wants Sunday night.
So where does the rookie receiver Jalen McMillan fit in? His role is increasing week-over-week, and whatever Dallas decides to defend, the breakout rookie will still get his.
With so many other stars on this offense, McMillan is being overlooked. But the third-round pick is running the furthest routes of all Tampa receivers and has cemented himself as the No. 2 receiver in this offense. He has 134 yards and three TDs over his last two games and has set season/career-highs in yardage in consecutive weeks.
Remember when Cade Otten was racking up the yards in this offense? Well, a lot of that output is going McMillan's way these days.
There might be even more room for targets this week as the Bucs have some injuries. Otton was a DNP at practice on Thursday, and he had 17 targets over the last four games. Trey Palmer was also a DNP this week with an illness, and Sterling Shepard is nursing a foot injury.
Fellow rookie Bucky Irving has also been limited this week. There could potentially be an extra 10 targets available on Sunday when you add in the increased pass rate that an indoor game also brings.
Dallas doesn't have the resources to stop everyone Sunday, and McMillan will continue to break out as high-end WR rookies tend to do near the end of the season.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys SNF same-game parlay
Jalen McMillan 40+ receiving yards
CeeDee Lamb 8+ receptions
Cooper Rush 2+ passing TDs
Mike Evans 70+ receiving yards
I'm going a little bigger for a holiday lotto SGP. McMillan, Cooper Rush, and Evans all project as +EV plays by themselves, per THE BLITZ, and CeeDee Lamb has been hogging Rush's targets.
The Dallas receiver is the target of 26.4% of Rush's targets since he took over and 31% of his total yards. No other receiver is getting more than 11% of the targets. If Dallas is in catch-up mode, he could rack up the receptions.
Rush has 2+ passing TDs in three of his last four games, while even Justin Herbert threw for a pair vs. the Bucs in that one-sided loss last week.
Since Evans returned in Week 12, only two other WRs have put up more yards. Of the Top-20 WRs from Week 12, only Davante Adams has a better yards per catch than Evans' 15.9. Let's have another shootout in Dallas on Sunday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys odds
Buccaneers vs Cowboys live odds
Buccaneers vs Cowboys opening odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay -3.5 | Dallas +3.5
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -200 | Dallas +165
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Buccaneers vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has been on the other side of 3 since the look-ahead on December 10. It did hit as long as 4.5, but it has never touched the flat 3. If the Buccaneers can't get guys like Tristan Wirfs, Bucky Irving, and a handful of questionable DBs ready, this spread could hit 3.
- This total re-opened at 48.5 Sunday night following some solid offensive performances in Week 15. It has bounced around from 48.5 and 49 and is the highest total of the week. The Cowboys had a closing total of 50.5 vs. the Bengals two weeks ago.
- Rush is 4-2 to the Over in his six starts while both teams are 9-5 to the Over on the season. The Bucs are also a matching 9-5 ATS this year and 4-2 ATS as a favorite.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys betting trend to know
The Cowboys have hit the 1Q Over in seven of their last nine games at home (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Buccaneers vs Cowboys latest injuries
Buccaneers vs Cowboys weather
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