In a Shanahan tree showdown, Kyle Shanahan leads his San Francisco 49ers across the country to take on his former OC Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.
With the 49er's injuries depleting the roster and the defense’s poor play against the run, I expect Miami to show up in a big way by leaning on its young running back in my 49ers vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 22.
49ers vs Dolphins prediction
- Spread pick: Dolphins +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Dolphins moneyline (-110 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Over 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best best: De’Von Achane Over 51.5 rushing yards (-111 at BetMGM)
49ers vs Dolphins spread predictions
San Francisco is among the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now. Down its top four running backs, All-Pro Trent Williams, and dealing with a plethora of other injuries, the 49ers are going to have too tough a time against Miami at home. The Dolphins won’t need to worry about cold weather in the Sunshine State, and Tua Tagovailoa should bounce back, especially with his run game set to thrive.
49ers vs Dolphins moneyline predictions
While Jaylen Waddle being out is a tough pill to swallow, De’Von Achane is poised for a massive day. Even with Tyreek Hill listed as questionable, the Dolphins run game should be the difference. Leaning on its run game, Miami can take advantage of a struggling 49ers defense that may be down with Nick Bosa, who’s questionable with a hip and oblique injury.
Defensively, the Dolphins have a budding star in Chop Robinson, who gets to play a San Francisco defense that’s without its future Hall-of-Fame tackle. With Brock Purdy set to face some serious pressure and without a trustworthy running back, Miami can slow this offense just enough to win.
49ers vs Dolphins Over/Under prediction
Thanks to neither of these offenses living up to the preseason hype, this game total is far lower than you’d have expected in August. With the Dolphins at home and Tagovailoa set to bounce back after a poor outing last week, Miami’s offense shouldn’t have trouble scoring.
Prior to the Houston Texans game, Tagovailoa had thrown 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his previous four games. As for the 49ers, even with their injuries, Purdy, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle can attack a Dolphins defense that’s 16th in EPA per dropback.
My best bet
De’Von Achane Over 51.5 rushing yards (-111 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Despite De'Von Achane having not topped 51.5 rushing yards in four straight games, he’s set to have a huge outing against the 49ers. With Jaylen Waddle out and Tyreek Hill banged up, Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel would be smart to go to his young running back early and often.
The San Francisco 49ers have struggled to stop the run this season and sit just 28th in EPA per rush on defense. In the 49ers’ last four games, they’ve allowed three 100-yard rushers - Kyren Williams went for 108 against it; James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson combined for 198 on the ground; and Josh Jacobs had Emanuel Wilson combined for 147.
That makes this the perfect matchup for Achane to remind the country why he’s considered one of the best young playmakers in the game. The second-year back out of Texas A&M has gone for 52-plus rushing yards five times this season.
Achane has 452 rushing yards after contact this year with 25 forced missed tackles and 16 runs of 10-plus-yard runs, per PFF, proving he’s capable of creating on his own. And with the 49ers’ 123 missed tackles this season, he should be able to take advantage of a defense with more than a half dozen players that have a missed tackle rate of over 10%.
49ers vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Achane Over 51.5 rushing yards
Malik Washington Over 2.5 receptions
Brock Purdy Over 240.5 passing yards
Achane isn't the only young playmaker McDaniel will need to have step up against the 49ers. With Hill dealing with a wrist injury and Waddle out, rookie Malik Washington will be used often.
We saw a sneak peek of it last week when the sixth-round pick out of Virginia caught five passes on six targets against the Texans. Expect designed touches for Washington again this week after he had 38 yards after the catch last week.
With Achane and Washington set to shine, Brock Purdy is going to need to do the same to keep San Fran in this with fifth-string running back Patrick Taylor Jr. set to start. Purdy is averaging 244.2 passing yards per game this season and has gone Over 240.5 in eight of 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
49ers vs Dolphins odds
49ers vs Dolphins live odds
49ers vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: San Francisco +2.5 (-110) | Miami -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Francisco (+110) | Miami (-135)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
49ers vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Dolphins opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line has slowly moved in the 49ers' direction with Miami being offered at -1.
- Both Miami and San Francisco are just 5-9 ATS this season.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 48.5 and has dropped drastically all the way down to between 44 and 44.5.
- While the Dolphins are only 6-8 betting the Over this year, the 49ers are 7-6-1.
49ers vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+1.15 Units / 5% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for the 49ers vs. Dolphins.
49ers vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
49ers vs Dolphins latest injuries
49ers vs Dolphins weather
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