The two worst teams in the NFL get together Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars travel west to face the Las Vegas Raiders.
Las Vegas holds the top pick in the draft as things stand now, and the Raiders have seen the line shift to make them slight favorites. Both teams feature defenses that can’t get stops against the pass, and offenses missing starting quarterbacks.
But there’s one player in particular who could be a diamond in a field full of coal, and we explain how he can help you make some cash in our Jaguars vs. Raiders predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 22.
Jaguars vs Raiders prediction
- Spread pick: Jaguars +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Raiders moneyline (-135 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Over 40.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Brian Thomas Jr. Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Jaguars vs Raiders spread prediction
The Jaguars have covered five of their last eight, pushing once, while the Raiders have covered the spread only once in their last six outings. This one should be close, and the Covers Consensus agrees with 51% of picks taking the points.
Jaguars vs Raiders moneyline prediction
Jacksonville has the worst pass defense in the NFL, and the return of Aidan O’Connell is a massive boost for the Raiders. The Jaguars have a habit of giving up leads when they actually get them, and it’s just too difficult to trust them on the road.
Jaguars vs Raiders Over/Under prediction
The Under is favored by 57% of the Covers Consensus, but I think the Over might be the call here. At just 40.5 points, this number is indicative of how poor these two offenses have been. But the best elixir for a bad offense is facing a worse defense, and there are offensive weapons on both sides that can punish these poor pass coverage units.
My best bet
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Since the Jacksonville Jaguars returned from their last bye week, rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has been on fire. He’s not only become the favorite target of Mac Jones but has also become the first read on passing plays.
In fact, Fantasy Points Data lists him as being the first read on 37.5% of plays where he’s run a route in the Jaguars’ last three games—the eighth-most in the league over that span. It’s led to Thomas having 10+ targets in each of those contests, catching 22 of 36 passes thrown his way.
The season-ending injury to Evan Engram, in addition to the absence of Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, means the bulk of the receiving yards are there for him to take. And with how the Jaguars are finding different ways to get him the ball, I love him to blow past his 70.5-yard receiving total.
The Las Vegas Raiders have ranked 28th in EPA per dropback defensively over the past month and a half. They’ve been running a lot of man coverage in that span, something Thomas has been torching consistently. That’s why the Jaguars have been getting him into the slot either by lining him up there or putting someone in motion to flank him.
His amazing speed and excellent route running have allowed him to break big plays after the catch, with both of his touchdowns against the Jets coming against man coverage. Not only is he stretching the defense vertically, but he’s being used more in flanker screens to get the ball into his hands quickly.
Thomas has posted at least 76 receiving yards in each of his last four outings, with 82+ in three of those contests. He caught 10 passes for 105 yards against the Jets, and the Las Vegas pass defense is worse than theirs.
He needs just 44 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark in his rookie campaign, and he’ll get that and more against a secondary that ranks in the Bottom 10 in dropback success rate.
Jaguars vs Raiders same-game parlay
Brian Thomas Over 70.5 receiving yards
Brenton Strange Over 37.5 receiving yards
Brock Bowers Over 68.5 receiving yards
Thomas wasn’t the only player that Jones connected with frequently last week. Tight end Brenton Strange filled in quite well for Engram, catching 11 passes for 73 yards on 12 targets. The Raiders have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL this season, and he should be able to reach a fairly low number.
Of the few teams defending tight ends worse than Las Vegas, one of them is Jacksonville. Brock Bowers is just 10 grabs away from being the fourth rookie ever to reach 100 catches and needs 110 yards to set the NFL rookie tight end record in receiving yards. Look for him to have a strong game against the worst pass defense in the NFL.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Jaguars vs Raiders odds
Jaguars vs Raiders live odds
Jaguars vs Raiders opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +2.5 | Las Vegas -2.5
- Moneyline: Jacksonville +120 | Las Vegas -140
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jaguars vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
- Las Vegas opened at -1.5 but the line swung on Tuesday to see them one-point dogs. It quickly moved back, and now the Raiders are favored by 2.5 points as of Saturday evening.
- The Jaguars are 1-6 SU in their last seven but have gone 5-2 ATS with a push in their last seven. The Raiders have lost 10 straight games, and are 1-4 ATS with a push in their last six outings.
- The total is quite low, sitting at 40.5 points after moving up a point early in the week.
- The Over offers value here given how poor these defensive units are. The Jaguars have seen the Over hit in seven of their last 10, while the Under is 3-0 in the last three for the Raiders.
Jaguars vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Raiders.
Jaguars vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Jaguars vs Raiders latest injuries
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