Lumen Field will host an important NFC matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks in Week 16.
With both teams pushing for a postseason spot, Sunday afternoon’s showdown will have the feel of a playoff game — and my Vikings vs. Seahawks predictions explain why that intensity, along with some classic Pacific Northwest weather, will put points at a premium.
Here are my best NFL picks for December 22.
Vikings vs Seahawks prediction
- Spread pick: Seattle +3 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Vikings moneyline (-155 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Vikings vs Seahawks moneyline
The current outright price has the Seahawks listed as +135 underdogs, giving Seattle an implied win probability of 42.5%.
Seattle watched a four-game winning streak explode on Sunday Night Football last week, getting rolled 30-13 by another NFC North member, Green Bay. That made us look long and hard at the Seahawks’ previous wins.
Two of those four victories came against Arizona; one was a nail-biting comeback against the Jets, and the other was courtesy of an injury-plagued 49ers team. That said, Minnesota’s current seven-game winning run has featured any world-beaters.
Given the short spread, I could see the Vikings squeaking out a 21-19 win in Week 16.
Vikings vs Seahawks point spread
Given that final score forecast, I would lean toward Seattle as a 3-point home underdog, but a slew of offensive injuries could see this spread spike closer to kickoff.
Quarterback Geno Smith isn’t 100%, and many of his top weapons have missed practice time, with RBs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet listed as questionable, along with WR1 D.K. Metcalf and TE Noah Fant.
Vikings vs Seahawks total
This Over/Under opened at 45 points last Sunday night and came down with Smith’s injury prompting early Under money.
That number dropped to 42.5 O/U, but with Smith now expected to play in Week 16, this total has ticked up to 43.5 points. That puts the number half a point beyond the key spot of 43 points (the sixth most frequent collective score).
I’m betting the Under with more on that wager below.
My best bet
Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This Week 16 contest holds a ton of water for both the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks, as these teams jockey for a spot in the Top 7 qualifiers for the tournament.
Minnesota looks to maintain its position as the No. 5 seed, while Seattle needs to skip over Washington for the No. 7 and final ticket to the playoffs. This is essentially a must-win matchup for the home side and should give this game a playoff-like atmosphere.
The Vikings have seen their defensive prowess slip in the second half of the schedule but remain relentless in their pursuit of pressure. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores dials up the blitz more than any team in the NFL, which has boiled down to the fourth-highest pressure rate and 42 sacks on the season (tied for fourth).
Seahawks QB Geno Smith limps into Week 16 after a scary knee injury many thought would end his 2024. However, Smith is back at practice and prepping for this aggressive pass rush.
The Vikings will exploit his lack of mobility, and Smith sees his passing metrics slide when under pressure, with a completion rate short of 57% and 11 of his total 13 interceptions coming while feeling the heat.
Not helping things is a rash of ailments to the guys around Geno. Running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are questionable, top WR D.K. Metcalf is fighting through a shoulder injury, and a knee injury limits safety blanket TE Noah Fant.
Seattle will lean into Mike Macdonald’s defense to keep it close on Sunday. The Seahawks struggled to grasp their new coach’s concepts early into the schedule but have been among the strongest stop units in the NFL since Week 9.
Seattle was busted for 30 points on 369 yards last Sunday, but the Packers did the bulk of that damage in the first half. The Seahawks made some smart defensive adjustments in the final 30 minutes and gave up only 10 points in the second half, yet they couldn’t overcome that 17-point hole with Smith on the sideline.
Seattle now sits No. 5 in EPA allowed per play over the past six games. This is by far the stingiest stop unit Minnesota has faced in a long time, with the Vikes taking advantage of some of the softest defenses during their current streak.
Some nasty December weather at Lumen Field will help the Seahawks slow down the Minnesota air attack. The current forecast calls for rain throughout this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff, with some weather models showing gusts up to 23 mph blowing SE from corner to corner.
Both teams have leaned toward the Under in recent weeks. Minnesota is 2-5 O/U in its last seven showings, while Seattle is 2-6 O/U in its last eight outings.
Vikings vs Seahawks same-game parlay
Under 43.5 Points
Minnesota Vikings moneyline
T.J. Hockenson 25+ receiving yards
With two solid defenses duking it out and the Seahawks skill positions banged up, I like the Under in a soggy Seattle showdown.
The Vikings may not cover, but they should win outright, especially if Seattle is missing some of those injured stars.
Hockenson faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the ninth most receptions and yards to tight ends. His player projections sit beyond 40 yards in Week 16.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Vikings vs Seahawks odds
Vikings vs Seahawks live odds
Vikings vs Seahawks opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -4.5 (-110) | Seattle +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -250 | Seattle +175
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Vikings vs Seahawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- With Geno Smith’s status up in the air last Sunday night, oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as big as 4.5-point home underdogs. But with a positive update, that spread has bounced between +3 and +3.5 across the market, with other injuries to Seattle skill players keeping bettors on their toes.
- The Over/Under total hit the board at 42.5 points and dropped to as low as 41.5 O/U at some books before coming back up to 43.5 points.
- According to Covers Consensus, 74% of picks are laying the points with the road favorite while 62% of total picks are on the Over.
Vikings vs Seahawks betting trend to know
The Seahawks have been a rare home underdog since 2010, getting points inside Lumen Field only 14 times in the regular season. Seattle is 4-8-2 Over/Under in those spots, including 1-2 O/U as a home pup this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Seahawks.
Vikings vs Seahawks game info
| Location: | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Vikings vs Seahawks latest injuries
Vikings vs Seahawks weather
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