The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
With two weeks to go in the regular season, we’re looking to finish off strong. We’re jumping on the Buffalo passing game yet again, taking a hometown boy in Kansas City, fading the Ravens and taking the smart play in Dallas.
Without further ado:
NFL Week 17 touchdown props
- Travis Kelce anytime TD
- Dawson Knox anytime TD
- Gabriel Davis anytime TD
- Odell Beckham Jr. anytime TD
- Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 17 TD props
Travis Kelce anytime TD (-110 at bet365)
Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce will be back in the lineup Sunday after missing last week’s game due to COVID. The last time we saw him on the field, he posted a 10-catch, 191-yard performance and scored a pair of touchdowns. The outburst earned him AFC Offensive Player of the Week and now he’ll look to keep that play going against a Cincinnati team that allows the third-most yards per game to opposing tight ends and allows 0.5 TDs to the position per game.
The Bengals won easily last week, but TE Mark Andrews had his way with the secondary and posted an 8/125/1 in the loss — and that’s with Josh Johnson as his quarterback. Cincy gave up over 100 yards to Denver tight ends in Week 14 while George Kittle went 13/151/1 against them in Week 13.
Kelce was born in Ohio and played his University football at Cincinnati. He’s also paying -110 to score a TD which is a great price considering it has closed at -140 in the past and can be found as low as -130 at other books.
It’s risky taking players off the COVID list but with a plus-matchup, the second-highest total on the board, a great price and a hometown angle, we’re taking Kelce to score to win one unit.
Dawson Knox anytime TD (+240 at PointsBet) Gabriel Davis (+225 at BetMGM)
Josh Allen and this Buffalo passing game are rolling right now. It doesn’t matter who lines up, Allen seemingly has a handful of weapons that all have touchdown upside. If Emmanuel Sanders would have caught that layup last week, four separate pass-catchers would have all hit their TD props in Week 16.
With Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley being activated off the COVID list, coach Sean McDermott has decisions to make. Does he put Davis on the outside, opposite Diggs? Is Isaiah McKenzie the odd man out after a monstrous performance last week?
The Bills enter their Week 17 matchup against the Falcons’ No. 29 EPA/play pass defense (since Week 9) as 14.5-point favorites and should cruise to an easy victory at home in the cold. We’d assume that McDermott will rotate his receivers regularly due to the weather and the injury risk. With so much talent at receiver, the Bills have the luxury of not having to lean on one guy. The three-WR set has Diggs and Sanders on the outside with Beasley in the slot, but with the emergence of Davis and now Mckenzie, the two newest stars should get their fair share of snaps, especially since Beasley is coming off the COVID list and Sanders was a DNP at practice on Thursday.
The safest bets here are Diggs and tight end Dawson Knox, whose roles are cemented. Knox is a play for us at +240 as he has nine TDs in 13 games and is Allen’s favorite target in the red zone. We’re also hitting Davis at +225, as Sanders’ DNP on Thursday has him on the wrong side of questionable. Sanders has also missed two games this month due to injuries. Davis had four TDs in three games before being sidelined by COVID. The weather could be an issue, but Allen is a great poor-weather QB.
Odell Beckham Jr. anytime TD (+162 at bet365)
The Baltimore Ravens’ secondary is non-existent at this point. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns over the last three weeks than John Harbaugh’s team, as opposing quarterbacks have thrown for nine total TDs since Week 14. Joe Burrow annihilated this group for four scores and 525 yards in Week 16.
Heading into Baltimore’s Week 17 matchup with the Rams, the Ravens have five defensive backs out and another two questionable. Anthony Everett was forced into an every-down role for the Ravens and his fractured ribs may force him to the sidelines this week, leaving Harbaugh with five DBs who all rank below the league average in coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
Cooper Kupp will no doubt have another monster game but at -120 to score, there might be better value in the Rams’ receiving corps. Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham both played over 90 percent of the team’s snaps last week with OBJ racking up three red-zone targets and eight in total which were the second-most on the team. He has four TDs in basically five games with the Rams and has a 19.2 percent target share since Week 12.
Matthew Stafford will look to bounce back after a three-interception day last week, and with decent weather and a tough Baltimore run defense, the Los Angeles passing game could be on full display. Beckham’s TD can be had at +162 which is a five-week high in terms of price. Only one team (Washington) has allowed more passing TDs this season than Baltimore.
Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD (-115 at BetMGM)
Ezekiel Elliott has plodded his way to TDs in back-to-back games but the No. 1 back is starting to get his wheels back after a knee injury slowed him down for multiple weeks. The Cowboys' commitment to giving him snaps, even when he was obviously less than 100 percent, is evident, and in the red zone, Mike McCarthy has eyes only for Zeke.
Over the last three weeks, Elliott has received 13 red-zone rushes/targets compared to Tony Pollard’s three. Any Pollard prop bettor knows all too well that Pollard is the clear No. 2 despite the higher ceiling.
McCarthy doesn’t rotate his backs like other teams and consistently leaves his RBs in for the entire series. Zeke gets the first crack in both halves and is getting more work inside the 20s. After embarrassing the Football Team last week, the Dallas running game gets to face the Cardinals, who gave up 107 yards to Jonathan Taylor behind a decimated offensive line.
The Dallas passing game is looking elite again and it should only help this rushing attack that averages nearly 140 yards on the ground at home this season.
With Elliott looking sprier and a coach that's committed to giving his highest-paid back the important reps, we’re hitting Elliott to score a TD at -115 to win 1.5 units. This price is as low as -150 at some books.
Season to date: 22-50 SU -2.125u
