We've reached Week 18 of the NFL season, and there's still plenty to be determined before the playoffs begin.
The Packers control their postseason destiny as they collide with the Bears, who are playing with pride as the season winds down. I've crunched the numbers and have constructed a same-game parlay for that late-afternoon tilt.
But first up is my traditional three-leg parlay that weighs motivation much more heavily than in past weeks, albeit while not paying a premium and giving in to the "this team needs it more" mentality.
Join me as I give out my free NFL picks for this final batch of NFL odds before the playoffs arrive.
Week 18 NFL parlay picks
- Titans +4 + Cardinals +3 + Raiders moneyline = +494
- Packers moneyline + CHI/GB Over 44.5 + J. Love Over 1.5 TD passes = +255
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best Week 18 parlay pick
Titans +4
Cardinals +3
Raiders moneyline
BetMGM is one of three books that offer these standard lines as of Friday afternoon, but the parlay at DraftKings pays only +472, while Caesars is 10 cents lower than that.
The lone 1 p.m. ET game I'm lumping into my parlay picks for Week 18 has the Titans potentially winning one for the Tanner. Ryan Tannehill, that is, who sees the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of his days in Tennessee.
“I spent five years of my life here in this organization,” Tannehill told USA Today. “A lot of great people. I would love to be able to leave it on a win.”
I think Tennessee will rally around the veteran and at least keep things close against the Jaguars, who I'm skeptical are "back" after beating up on the pitiful Panthers to end an ugly four-game losing streak in Week 16. Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to be at 100% even if he suits up, and the Titans have picked up four of their five wins at home this season.
The Seahawks likely did some soul-searching after a Week 17 loss that took away control of their postseason destiny. The Steelers ran roughshod in Seattle as Pete Carroll's team "did not tackle well," as he put it on radio on Tuesday. He continued, "We did not pursue properly on some stuff ... and it [was] just crappy. It looked lousy, and we felt lousy about it.”
Poor tackling is a recipe for disaster against the Cardinals and James Conner, who is playing like a man possessed as 2023-24 winds down. He's accounted for six touchdowns and 109.8 all-purpose yards over his last four games.
The Raiders go for their eighth straight win over the Broncos, who took the air out of their own balloon by benching Russell Wilson in an overtly cost-conscious move last week. While Denver did win with Jarrett Stidham under center, that was at home and possibly more about the Chargers mailing it in following the season-ending injury to Justin Herbert.
Davante Adams stumped for interim head coach Antonio Piece this week, telling reporters, “It’s obviously who I wanted and that’s my vote, and I’ve been vocal about that. That’s basically how the whole locker room feels and with good reason. He’s come in and done a great job. He’s continued to win us over.”
Las Vegas looks like by far the more motivated team and has owned this opponent, making them a sensible third and final addition to this near-5/1 parlay.
Best Week 18 SGP
Packers moneyline
Bears vs. Packers Over 44.5
Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing TDs
BetRivers offers the best odds on this three-legger, with FanDuel checking in second at +241.
Jordan Love built on the legacy of Aaron Rodgers in terms of owning the Bears in Week 1, putting up the Packers' ninth consecutive victory over Chicago in a 38-20 decision. While it's true the Bears got off to a rough start before winning five of their last seven overall, it can easily be argued that Love has also blossomed as the season has gone on.
The three touchdowns he threw vs. the Bears on Sept. 10 marked the first of 10 multi-touchdown games for the young signal-caller. In fact, Love has hit the two-touchdown plateau in seven of his last eight overall, and he now faces a Chicago defense that's given up the fourth-most passing touchdowns in football (29).
This leg sets up the other two nicely and is worth a straight-up wager too. BetRivers has it at -157, but FanDuel is offering a market-best -148 as of Friday afternoon.
Love has succeeded by spreading the ball around, due in part to necessity. With Jayden Reed looking doubtful, the potential long-awaited returns of both Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave could be a shot in the arm for this offense. The recent resurgence of Aaron Jones, who's hit the century mark in two straight, has also been a boon.
The Bears are banged up too, with both Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman in danger of missing Week 18, but Justin Fields can still find a way to put up points vs. Green Bay's 21st-ranked total defense. This unit has come alive down the stretch, eclipsing 25 points in four of its last six games.
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