For my gambling dollar, there’s no better slate of games than Week 2 of the NFL season.
The NFL Week 2 odds are oozing with overreaction as bookies and bettors make knee-jerk decisions based on the first games of the season.
Here’s the thing. Teams are never as good or as bad as they seemed in Week 1. Well, maybe the Carolina Panthers. They look pretty damn bad.
Those abrupt adjustments in market perception make for good bets in the opening hours of the Week 2 odds and also opportunities to buy back the bigger line moves later in the week for your NFL picks. And with that, I welcome you to the first "Bet Now, Bet Later" article of the 2024 season.
Week 2 bet now, bet later picks
- Raiders at Ravens (-8): Bet Now
- Seahawks at Patriots (+3): Bet Later
- Saints at Cowboys (Under 45.5): Bet Now
- Giants at Commanders (Over 41): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Bet Now
This look-ahead line was Baltimore Ravens -7.5 in the summer. After a lifeless loss from the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday and Baltimore a toenail away from a win in Arrowhead, we’re somehow seeing a slim adjustment of only half a point.
Las Vegas managed only 10 points against a ho-hum Chargers defense in Week 1, showing nothing on the ground and serving up mistake-prone QB Gardner Minshew for four sacks. The Raiders defense was steamrolled by the Bolts’ new Ravens-inspired playbook, giving up 176 rushing yards, and now faces the real deal in Week 2.
Baltimore took the Super Bowl champs to the wire, with the defense checking KC to a 1-for-3 day in the red zone. The Ravens have enjoyed a mini-bye to prep for the Silver and Black in the home opener, which is a 1 p.m. ET start on the East Coast for the Raiders.
Some books are up to Baltimore -8.5 and it wouldn’t shock me to see this flirt with -9.5 later in the week. Grab the low at Ravens -8 now.
Best odds to bet Ravens -8 right now
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (+3): Bet Later
The New England Patriots were the shocker of Week 1, roughing up the shorthanded Cincinnati Bengals and thinning NFL Survivor pools with a 16-10 win.
New England plays its first game inside Gillette Stadium of the post-Belichick era in Week 2, welcoming the Seattle Seahawks for an early 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT). Books opened Seattle as a field-goal fave on the road.
The Seahawks started the schedule with a Week 1 win but didn’t look good doing it. They held off the Denver Broncos for a 26-20 victory and suffered another injury on an already hurting offensive line. We also saw RB Kenneth Walker leave the game late with an abdominal injury (told reporters he was "good" after the game).
Pass protection has always been the key for QB Geno Smith, who crumbles when under pressure. The linchpin to New England’s upset was just how much the defense disrupted Joe Burrow, leaving the star QB to complete 21 passes for just 154 yards while also suffering three sacks, panning out to a QB rating of 56.2.
Even with the Patriots picking up the W, the public perception of this team is still in the dumps. Sharp books have drawn early play on the Seahawks, pushing the spread to an expensive -3 and that will likely move to -3.5 or -4 as money comes in on the visitor.
If you’ve got the marbles to bet on the Pats, pump the brakes and wait for more points to pad the home spread.
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (Under 45.5): Bet Now
The New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys’ respective Week 1 totals were among the lower numbers on the board, closing at 41 and 42.5 points.
Both teams soared past those expectations, doing the lion’s share of the scoring. New Orleans hung 47 points on the Panthers (as mentioned, they’re shite) and Dallas put up 33 points versus Cleveland.
However, we did see those offenses settle for eight collective field goals (four of which were 50-plus yards) and turnovers from their foes led to extra possessions and solid starting field position. The Cowboys also added a punt return touchdown.
Those debut offensive outpourings have pumped up this Week 2 Over/Under from 44.5 to 45.5 O/U in the hours since opening.
The New Orleans offense may have scored three weeks’ worth of points against Carolina but runs into a very dangerous Dallas defense on the road. The Saints offensive line is a sore spot and now faces one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the league, with the Cowboys collecting six sacks in Cleveland.
The Cowboys’ scoring attack wasn’t great against the Browns, entering the red zone only one time and picking up just 4.4 yards per play on Sunday. Crazy stat from Week 1: Cleveland and Dallas each had 15 first downs. On top of that, TE Jake Ferguson is nursing a knee injury that may sideline him for Week 2.
This total is too much. I’m betting Under 45.5 now.
Best odds to bet Under 45.5 right now
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (Over 41): Bet Later
This NFC East matchup carries one of the shorter totals for Week 2, opening as high as 42.5 and quickly adjusting to 41 Over/Under across the market on Sunday evening. The initial move makes sense considering how bad the New York Giants looked in Week 1.
New York managed only six points on 240 yards of offense in the loss to the Minnesota Vikings, including going 0-for-3 in the red zone. Quarterback Daniel Jones was sacked five times and threw two interceptions, finishing the day as the most memed player of Week 1.
The Washington Commanders also lost Sunday, getting busted 37-20 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, inside the lopsided score were serious positives. The offense was a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone, thanks to rookie QB Jayden Daniels, and entered Sunday night as the sixth-best offense in EPA per play for Week 1. And that was with Terry McLaurin catching just two balls.
Let’s also remember both defenses stunk it up in those respective defeats. The G-Men made Sam Darnold look like Peyton Manning for a half and the Vikings averaged 6.1 yards per play. The Commanders got lit up by Baker Mayfield, hemorrhaging almost 400 total yards at 6.4 yards per play, struggling to adapt to Dan Quinn’s new schemes.
The Under has been the play when these divisional rivals meet, with Washington and New York going 6-10-2 O/U since 2015. But if you don’t give a rat’s ass about trends, there could be value on the Over if this total keeps ticking down.
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