Week 2 NFL Touchdown Props: Back the Browns' Backfield

The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them. 

Last week, we were really close to a massive payday. Ty’Son Williams cashed at +290 but Brandin Cooks had 132 scoreless yards, Damien Harris fumbled on the 11-yard line in the fourth while Hayden Hurst couldn't find the endzone. That’s in the past. On to Week 2.

NFL Week 2 touchdown props

Chris Godwin Over 0.5 TD receptions (+113) 

Chris Godwin was the most targeted wide receiver in Week 1 catching all four of his red zone targets including one score. This week, he gets an Atlanta secondary that comes into the year as the worst-ranked unit, per Pro Football Focus.

Godwin played 46 of his 64 snaps out of the slot and gets to face Atlanta nickel corner Isaiah Oliver, who has ranked outside the Top-80 at his position for two straight seasons. He has less than optimal speed, with a 4.5 40-yard dash, and gave up three catches on three targets last week versus the Eagles.

Over the last three weeks of last year’s regular season, Godwin saw the Falcons twice and racked up stats versus the porous secondary, hauling in nine of his 12 targets and scoring three times, including twice in Week 17. 

Slot corners are usually the worst of the starting CBs on a team and Atlanta’s outside corners are not good. This is a high total and high spread game and we’re taking on the +113 Over 0.5 TD receptions for 1.32 units to win 1.50 units.

Nick Chubb Over 0.5 rushing TD (-118) and Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+170)

Good players pad their stats against bad teams and that could be the case with the Cleveland backfield heading into its Week 2 matchup with the Houston Texans as 12.5-point favorites. Cleveland led all offenses in yards per play last week at 8.2 and has a team total of over 30 points for Sunday.

Defensively, Houston had just four plays inside their own 20 last week versus Jacksonville and never had a rush attempt against. That will change Sunday with the Browns’ rushing attack that ran for 5.9 yards per carry versus the Chiefs in Week 1. This Houston defense may be riding high after its win, but it is still nearly the same unit that allowed 1.5 rushing TDs per game a season ago and is still adjusting to a new DC and scheme.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt split the workload fairly evenly in Week 1 with Chubb getting 53 percent of snaps compared to Hunt's 47. Chubb out-carried Hunt 15 to 6 but each RB got plenty of love in the red zone, with Chubb getting six carries and converting two for TDs while Hunt had three carries and scored on one.

PFF has Cleveland’s offensive line as the best matchup in Week 2 at 138 percent, which is 50 percent higher than the second-best matchup. This is as lopsided as an OL vs DL matchup goes in the league.

We may be getting greedy, but we’re double-dipping on both RBs who we think will have plenty of scoring opportunities. In the 12 regular season games that both Hunt and Chubb have started since last season, they've each scored at least one TD in five of them, including three of their last four regular season games.

We’re throwing down two total units on both TD plays — so it’s 1.18u on Chubb to win one unit and 0.82u on Hunt to win 1.4u.

Jared Cook Over 0.5 TD receptions (+234)

The Cowboys and Buccaneers treated us to some TD-eccentric football last Thursday, as both teams combined for seven total touchdowns with Tampa tight end Rob Gronkowski hauling in a pair. Both of Gronk’s TDs came in the red zone versus a Dallas defense and pass rush that generated next-to-zero pressure (6.3 percent). Now they won’t have the services of their best edge rusher in Demarcus Lawrence. The Chargers’ passing game has a great matchup in a game that is tied for the highest total on the board for Week 2.

Tight end Jared Cook had a good debut with his new team in Week 1 taking eight targets and turning them into 56 scoreless yards and finishing third in team targets. Cook also got the attention of QB Justin Herbert in the red zone drawing two of the team’s 10 RZ targets. New OC Joe Lombardi is very familiar with Cook, as they were both with the Saints for the 2019 and ‘20 seasons. 

Cook is getting looks in the offense, has a plus matchup versus a generous Dallas defense, is playing in a high-total game and is giving us a fantastic price at +234. Cook closed at +300 for a TD last week which shows the books are higher on Cook coming into Week 2. At this price, we’re throwing down 0.65 units to win 1.5 units.

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