Moving spreads through multiple key numbers is the name of the game with teasers, and I’m targeting a handful of teams on this weekend's schedule.
The Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both have favorable home matchups and check out as my go-to teaser NFL picks for the NFL Week 3 odds slate.
NFL Week 3 teaser picks
6-point teaser
- Browns (-0.5)
- Buccaneers (-0.5)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Week 3 Teaser
Browns (-6.5 to -0.5) vs Giants
Progress is progress, and Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson took a step forward in Week 2. He didn’t fill the box score with eye-popping numbers, but he protected the football to win as a road dog. It’s the recipe for success for the Browns because the defense will quickly return to the ranks of the elite stop units.
A home date with the disjointed New York Giants offense comes at the perfect time for the Dawg Pound D to pad those fancy stats and remind any doubters of its prowess. Cleveland already ranks ninth in success rate allowed and eighth in PFF defense-grade, while New York enters with floundering 26th and 23rd respective offensive ranks. Plus, Giants QB Daniel Jones is 1-5 straight up in his past six road games.
In addition to this six-point teaser moving this Cleveland leg to a moneyline pick, I also value that the total is calling for a low-scoring game with the Browns at home and fielding the superior defense.
Buccaneers (-6.5 to -0.5) vs Broncos
It’s probably too early to call from the rooftops that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are back, but it’s early enough to declare the Denver Broncos are not. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix has been turnover-prone with four interceptions and four sacks while getting knocked down 11 times. He’s led the Broncos to the second-lowest EPA per play, too.
Additionally, while this reeks of a potential letdown spot for Tampa, the Broncos have a laundry list of injuries on defense, and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee) went on injured reserve Wednesday. The Bucs have impressed through the air with the fourth-highest EPA per dropback and second-highest dropback success rate, so there’s going to be a lot of pressure on a banged-up Denver defense to hold Tampa in check.
The Bucs also have impact players nursing injuries, but landing the -6.5 number is key here. Multiple shops have already tested a touchdown margin, and the higher vig is on the Tampa side of this spread across the board.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 3 teaser spots
- Browns (-6.5 to -0.5)
- Buccaneers (-6.5 to -0.5)
- Bengals vs. Commanders (-6.5 to -0.5)
- 49ers at Rams (-7 to -1)
- Bears at Colts (+1.5 to +7.5)
The 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals are no strangers to slow starts, and this is a get-right spot against a bad Washington Commanders defense ranking last in defensive DVOA and EPA per play allowed. Cincy hung with the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 2, and now they face a rookie quarterback at home.
I don’t have faith in the Los Angeles Rams. They overachieved last season and send out an inexperienced defense that lost eight-time All-Pro Aaron Donald to retirement. The result has been ranking 29th in defensive DVOA and 31st in EPA per play allowed, and the San Francisco 49ers enter with the ninth-ranked offensive DVOA and fourth-ranked offensive success rate. San Fran sits seventh in PFF defense grade, too.
The Chicago Bears have been opportunistic on defense with four turnovers, and Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson already has tossed four interceptions. If Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams had played well at all through two weeks, there’s a case that Chicago would be the favorite Sunday. With the Colts ranking 30th in defensive DVOA and allowing the sixth-highest EPA per play, this game will slow down — at least a bit — for Williams.
Not intended for use in MA.
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