Poof! And just like that, we've reached Week 4 of the NFL season.
September comes to a close and we welcome October football with bookies starting to pump up their power ratings with more data. That means getting the best number is even more important when handicapping the NFL Week 4 odds.
I help you do just that — depending on which sides and totals you like — with my best NFL bets to make now and which ones you should wait to make later.
Week 4 bet now, bet later picks
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Bet Now
- Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Carolina Panthers: Bet Later
- Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 47.5): Bet Now
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Over 43): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Bet Now
Gawd damn, this is a sexy game.
Not only do we get two of the most improved teams in 2022 butting heads, but we get also a great narrative with former Philly coach Doug Pederson returning to the Linc in Week 4. Jacksonville crashed SoFi Stadium and roughed up the Chargers for a 38-10 blowout win, but still opened as big as +7.5 for this game at respected online shops.
This spread has settled in at Eagles -7 at most books but places like PointsBet are dealing -6.5 shortly after odds hit the market. If you’re buying into Jacksonville’s current form, grab all the points you can.
Philadelphia is flying at 3-0 and crushed former QB Carson Wentz in Washington on Sunday. That said, those three wins have come against DC, Minnesota, and Detroit — not as sexy as slapping around the Colts and Chargers (the Jags did lose to the Commanders in Week 1, however).
On top of that, Jacksonville is wet dream fodder for football analytics nerds, ranked out No. 7 in offense EPA per play and No. 3 in EPA allowed per play — a tick higher than Philadelphia.
Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Carolina Panthers: Bet Later
The Cardinals could easily be 0-3 entering this trip to Carolina. But that was to be expected considering the quality of competition this team has faced out of the gate. Arizona has taken on Kansas City, Las Vegas, and the L.A. Rams — a murderer’s row of quality QBs. Next up: Baker Mayfield?
You can flip that logic for the 1-2 Panthers, who are coming off a win over New Orleans in Week 3. Carolina’s defense has kept the team competitive, especially on Sunday with a first-quarter scoop and score that turned out the be the difference. But the Panthers have faced the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, and jacked-back Jameis Winston.
Arizona has injuries on both sides of the ball but Kyler Murray is by far the best quarterback Carolina has had to face this season. Kliff Kingsbury is hoping to have WR Rondale Moore back for Week 4 after he’s sat with the hamstring injury and Hollywood Brown is stepping up big for this passing game.
If you’re not convinced about Carolina, wait it out. And I mean wait. The Panthers have been a popular pick on Sundays, with last-minute money showing up in all three games and moving Carolina late. This spread is already up to Cardinals +1.5 and even +2 at some shops. Hold out for more if you’ve got cash for the Cardinals.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 47.5): Bet Now
The Under seems like an automatic play in Bucs games now. Tom Brady and this offense are really struggling, and I’m not sure getting back some of those receivers is an instant fix. The Buccaneers' battered offensive line has given up six sacks and isn’t giving Brady enough time for deeper plays to develop.
Kansas City comes into Week 4 having lost a little shine following a dead-armed loss to Indianapolis on Sunday. The Chiefs' scoring attack made a big splash with 44 points in Week 1 but has looked earthbound ever since, culminating in just 17 points against the previously disappointing Colts on Sunday.
The Kansas City defense, however, is playing well above expectations. The Chiefs checked the Colts to only 259 yards and sacked QB Matt Ryan five times. Kansas City has wrangled some top-tier passers to start 2022, owning the 10th rated EPA per dropback.
Tampa Bay’s stop unit continues to hold the team together and did a great job limiting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers attack for the final three quarters of Sunday’s two-point loss. The Bucs are No. 1 in EPA allowed per play and have allowed a grand total of just 27 points through three games.
This total had a look-ahead line of 53 points before the start of the season. It officially opened at 47.5 and started dropping at a number of books on Sunday night. Plunder this Sunday Night Football Under now.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Over 43): Bet Later
The Colts avoided DEFCON 1 levels of panic with a big home win over Kansas City in Week 3, but the victory has a rotten core as the Indy offense truly struggled again a week removed from a shutout loss to Jacksonville.
The Colts put up 20 points on an embarrassing 3.75 yards per play. They only came away with a win thanks to a generous amount of turnovers, miscues, and a muffed punt from KC. That’s a big reason why this total hit the board at 44 points and why it quickly slid down to 43 as of Sunday night.
But on the other side of the field is Tennessee. The Titans have given up a ton of yardage through three games, but the final scores haven’t always shown that ineptitude. Tennessee currently sits 30th in EPA allowed per play, well off the mark for Indianapolis’ last two defensive opponents.
As for the Titans’ offense, it’s starting to gain traction. Derrick Henry had a good day in Week 3, amassing 143 yards of offense and Ryan Tannehill ranked out No. 5 in EPA per dropback among passers on Sunday afternoon (+0.344).
These AFC South rivals conjured closing totals of 51 and 47 points in their two meetings last year and while they may not be as electric to start 2022, there’s a high ceiling for offense inside the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium.
If you’re not soured on the Over, kick back and wait to see if early Under play keeps walking this one down before getting involved.
