Week 6 NFL Trend Report: Unders and Covers

Week 6 NFL odds are out and I’m back for more betting action as new trends are beginning to develop, while ones from past seasons are starting to whittle away. 

If you’ve been consuming this article each week, you’ll notice I got back to the well with recommendations for certain team’s games, for the simple reason that they continue to hit – hello Saints’ Unders! 

As the season progresses, I’ll likely share more trends that are specific to this season, as those numbers are more of a reflection of a team’s current roster and coaching staff. As a result, some of these trends could have a smaller sample size, which isn’t as sexy, but trends need to start somewhere.

Taking a look at some stand-out league-wide NFL betting trends, road teams are cashing at a 56.2% clip, while Unders are hitting in 58.3% of non-overtime games.

Before you make your NFL picks, let's get into this week's trends!

Best NFL Week 6 betting trends

Broncos vs Chiefs

The trend: The Broncos have gone Over in 9 of their last 10 games

Denver is on a serious run of Overs going back to last season. This is mainly due to their awful defense that’s allowed 28 or more points seven times during these 10 games including allowing 34 to the Chiefs in a game last season. Coming into this Over tear, the Broncos were on a stretch that saw them go Under in 16 of their previous 20 games. Another trend has seen the Chiefs win 15 straight games vs the Broncos, although I doubt many are eager to pound that KC -550 moneyline.

See all Broncos vs. Chiefs trends for Week 6.

Ravens vs Titans

The trend: The Ravens have gone Under in 15 of their last 19 and the Titans have gone Under in 8 of their last 9

This one looks like an Under bettors’ dream. The total is hovering around the 40-point mark which is a number these teams have failed to cross in seven of their combined 10 games this season. Another trend to keep on your radar is the 4th quarter Under in Titans games which has hit in an amazing 16 of their last 18 games. Four of Tennessee’s five games this season have seen seven or fewer points scored in the fourth quarter.

See all Ravens vs. Titans trends for Week 6.

Commanders vs Falcons

The trend: The Falcons have gone Under in 9 of their last 11 games

It’s been rock-bottom scoring in Falcons games lately with their last 11 games having an average combined score of just 36 points. Despite dedicating first-round draft picks to offense the past couple of years, they’re averaging just 16.6 points per game. Defensively, however, they rank in the top seven in yards allowed per play, opponent third down conversion % and opponent red zone touchdown conversion %. This game has a total of 42.5.

See all Commanders vs. Falcons trends for Week 6.

Vikings vs Bears

The trend: The Bears have gone Over in every game this season

This total has trickled down to 44 with the news that Justin Jefferson will miss multiple weeks, but that perhaps is an overreaction. Bears’ games this season have had an average combined score of 54.4 and this game appears to set up nicely for each offense. The Bears are at or near the bottom of the league in many key defensive categories while Minnesota has allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games. 

See all Vikings vs. Bears trends for Week 6.

Colts vs Jaguars

The trend: The Jaguars are 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite (excludes London games)

We saw this trend continue into this season when the Jaguars lost by 20 as a 7.5-point home favorite against the Texans. It’s one thing to not be covering in this spot, but all those outright losses are simply pathetic. Jacksonville is favored by 4.5 in this matchup which is a rematch from Week 1 where Jacksonville won by 10 despite the Colts leading by four at the end of the third quarter.

See all Colts vs. Jaguars trends for Week 6.

Panthers vs Dolphins

The trend: The Dolphins are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite

Many of these wins predate the Mike McDaniel era, but this is still worth considering with the team going 6-2 ATS in this spot under McDaniel, while covering both times as a double-digit favorite. They haven’t made a habit of playing down to the competition over the years and will face a big spread for a second straight week as they’re favored by 13.5.

See all Panthers vs. Dolphins trends for Week 6.

49ers vs Browns

The trend: The 49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games

This is as straightforward as a trend gets and is even more impressive when you consider that two of the ATS losses occurred in the playoffs last season vs the Eagles when they ran out of quarterbacks and earlier this season when the Rams inexplicitly kicked a field goal with time expiring. During this 16-game stretch, the 49ers have 11 wins by double digits.

See all 49ers vs. Browns trends for Week 6.

Saints vs Texans

The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 14 of their last 15 games

Right back to the well on this one as the Saints have gone Under in every game this season with none of those games topping 37 combined points! This game has a total of 42.5 which is a mark New Orleans has stayed beneath in 14 games during this Under tear. Houston has played in three games this season that failed to cross 40 points.

See all Saints vs. Texans trends for Week 6.

Seahawks vs Bengals

The trend: The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games in October

Yeah, this is a bit of a weird one and maybe it’s just a coincidence, but it’s not totally inconceivable that a team hits their stride in the second month of the season after getting a few games under their belt. They’re a three-point underdog in this game and they’ve gone 14-4-2 ATS as a road dog in October going back to the 2008 season. Take this one with a grain of salt. 

See all Seahawks vs. Bengals trends for Week 6.

Patriots vs Raiders

The trend: These teams have combined to go Under in eight of 10 games this season

Patriots and Raiders games have given us some extremely ugly football this season. The offenses come in at 25th and 28th in yards per play and if you enjoy punting this game might be for you as they also rank 28th and 29th on third down. They combined for 54 points in a matchup last season, but 14 of those points were scored by the defenses and the teams combined for just 333 passing yards. The total for the game is at 41.5 points.

See all Patriots vs. Raiders trends for Week 6.

Lions vs Buccaneers

The trend: The Lions are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games

This team is on a serious roll and this trend was put to the test when they covered as a 9.5-point favorite last week vs the Panthers. They’re favored by three in this one which is rare territory for Detroit as they’ve only been a road favorite twice since the start of the 2021 season. They won by 14 against the Packers in this spot in Week 4.

See all Lions vs. Buccaneers trends for Week 6.

Cardinals vs Rams

The trend: The Rams are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs the Cardinals

The Rams have been smacking the Cardinals for years with all of these games taking place in the Sean McVay era. The Rams are coming off a loss which is another hot spot for them as they’ve covered in 62.9% of games following a loss under McVay. L.A. is favored by 6.5 points.

See all Cardinals vs. Rams trends for Week 6.

Eagles vs Jets

The trend: The Jets are 4-8 ATS after a win under Robert Saleh

The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets are having trouble with momentum in Robert Saleh’s two-plus years as head coach. They got smacked by 20 in Dallas after their first win of the season and will now face an Eagles team that’s a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road. Philly is favored by seven and will likely be on 99.9% of teaser tickets this week.

See all Eagles vs. Jets trends for Week 6.

Giants vs Bills

The trend: The Giants have lost five of their last six games by 18 or more points

This game has the biggest spread of the week at 14 points, which might cause some to simply look away, but not so fast! In their wins this season, Buffalo has won by 28, 34, and 28 again… when they win, they win big and there could be no better bounce-back spot than against an opponent who has a league-worst -91-point differential. The Giants have failed to cover in both games as a double-digit dog this season.

See all Giants vs. Bills trends for Week 6.

Cowboys vs Chargers

The trend: Cowboys are 10-1 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2021 season

The Cowboys’ bounce-back ability was on full display in Week 4 when they followed a disappointing loss to the Cardinals by obliterating the Patriots by 35 points. This added to a list of impressive performances after a loss, as last season they had an outright win as a 7-point underdog vs. the Bengals with Cooper Rush starting, an 18-point win over Detroit, a 37-point win in Minnesota, and a 17-point playoff win in Tampa Bay. They’re favored by two points in the ‘Kellen Moore Revenge Game.’

See all Cowboys vs. Chargers trends for Week 6.

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