The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re coming off our fourth profitable TD week with a 3-1 SU Week 5 that profited +5.7 units. We’ve fallen smitten over this week’s touchdown prospects and feel we have a great mix of value with plus matchups on this week’s card. Onto the (hopeful) plane-breakers.
NFL Week 6 touchdown props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 6 TD props
Ricky Seals-Jones TD (+333 at bet365)
Washington TE Logan Thomas is still out, meaning Ricky Seals-Jones should see more than 90 percent of the snaps for the third straight week. He saw the second-most targets last week (nine) and three of those were in the red zone, where he caught one scoreless ball. RSJ has become a big part of this team’s passing attack and has a salivating TD matchup with the Chiefs in Week 6. Terry McLaurin spent Friday with the trainers while Curtis Samuel is week-to-week.
Buffalo TE Dawson Knox scored a 53-yard TD versus the Chiefs last Sunday night while Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert went 5/56/1 in Week 4. We keep saying it: safety Daniel Sorensen is one of the worst TE coverage defenders in the league and has allowed 16 receptions on 20 targets this season.
Kansas City is in a great spot to bounce back after last week’s loss, which should keep Washington QB Tyler Heinicke in passing mode on Sunday. Taking a TD prop in a game with a 55-point total is also an advised move.
Seals-Jones’ TD price has jumped from +500 from last week to +310 this week, which is warranted as his role has increased. Some books have this TD as low as +250 but bet365 is offering at +333. Sign us up for 1.2 units to win four units.
A.J. Dillon anytime TD (+300 at bet365)
After last week’s win over the Bengals, head coach Matt LaFleur stated that he wished he had gotten Dillon more than his 12 touches. The RB has totaled 28 touches over the last two weeks and his coach’s praise may increase Dillon’s role in the passing game. Any extra time on the field is a massive bonus for a hopeful 1B back with a TD price of +300 compared to Aaron Jones’ -105.
Dillon tied Jones with three RZ rushes in Week 5 and has collected four runs inside the 20 over the last two weeks. QB Aaron Rodgers has not been a threat to steal carries near the goal line as he has zero RZ rushes this year.
Green Bay has covered four straight games against the Bears and has outscored them 76-41 over the last two meetings. Chicago could also be without defensive captains Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack, who are both questionable. If Green Bay gets up early, this Justin Field-led offense, that has barely passed the ball of late, will struggle to play catch-up keeping the Pack run-heavy.
Dillon’s props have moved well north since opening and this could be the last week we see a +300 price on him if he does, in fact, become Green Bay’s 1B, much like Jamaal Williams last season. It’s a one-unit play for us.
Chris Moore anytime TD (+750 at PointsBet)
Our fringe TD of the week comes straight out of Houston, where receiver Chris Moore is fresh off a 5/109/1 performance versus a very good New England secondary in Week 5. He also had another TD erased by a penalty. The former practice-squad player could lose snaps to Danny Amendola, who was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but at +750 it's worth a roll of the dice. Nico Collins also could be eligible to play but he is just returning for the IR and has 21 days to be activated.
There is a real chance that Moore sees another 25 or more routes versus the Colts, who are 10-point favorites. Passing will be the name of the game for Houston and facing an Indy defense that has the worst defensive success rate against the pass — yes, worse than Seattle and Kansas City — Moore at +750 to score again is worth a small-unit play.
Moore tied for the team lead in targets last week and saw two targets in the red zone. With some books as low as +350, getting at +750 at PointsBet is a true bargain and worth 0.5 units or from us.
Myles Gaskin anytime TD (+140 at bet365)
We have to be square for at least one pick this wee,k and Myles Gaskin has our attention. No team has given up more rushing TDs than the Jacksonville Jaguars, and after getting embarrassed by the Bucs last week, Miami might want to return the favor to a Jacksonville defense that has allowed seven rushing TDs over the last three weeks.
Gaskin only saw five carries last week, but the game script had a lot to do with it. He excelled in the passing game and caught two TDs on his 10 targets. Accounting for all the team’s offense may force the play-calling to lean more in Gaskin’s favor in a favorable matchup this Sunday.
Gaskin has zero TD rushes this year but Miami has struggled to get into the RZ this year and has 10 trips inside the 20 which is the fewest in the league. Good thing for the Dolphins, the Jaguars are allowing 4.2 red zone trips per game to their opponents this season and allowing TDs on 67 percent of those trips.
The price is the thing that sets this pick apart from other square TD props. A Gaskin anytime TD is priced as low as -105 but can be found at bet365 for +140. At that price, we’re wagering 1.1 units to win 1.5.
Season to date: 9-11 SU +6.92 units
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