We’re officially past the one-third mark of the 2024 NFL regular season, and like every other season, NFL Football remains the best reality show on TV.
We’re cooking with gas this week in terms of intense drama as it’s probably the best slate of the season so far, headlined by a Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and 49ers, while Davante Adams and Russell Wilson are both likely to make their debuts for their new teams on Sunday Night Football.
Week 6 was dominated by favorites (10-3-1 ATS) and Overs (11-2-1)… and Will Levis ending the career of a ball boy. It wasn’t a very competitive week though as nine of the 14 games were decided by double digits. Week 7 should offer some closer matchups as nine of the games have spreads of three or less.
If you’re looking for the right starting point for your handicapping, I got you. Below you’ll find my favorite NFL betting trend for every Week 7 game.
Happy betting!
Best NFL Week 7 betting trends
Broncos vs Saints
The trend: The Saints are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog
Six of these games were losses by double-digits, including last week’s game against the Bucs where they allowed a ridiculous 594 yards of offense. This is a very ugly-looking game thanks in part to an injury-ravaged Saints team. The Broncos are a 2.5-point favorite in Sean Payton’s return to New Orleans.
See all Broncos vs Saints trends for Week 7.
Patriots vs Jaguars
The trend: The Patriots are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog of seven or less
People won’t exactly be lining up to place a bet on the Jaguars, especially as a favorite, but the Patriots have been an absolute money pit as an underdog of seven or less. So far this season, they’re 0-4-1 ATS in this spot. If you like this trend to continue, you can back the Jaguars at -5.5 this Sunday morning in Jolly Old England.
See all Patriots vs Jaguars trends for Week 7.
Lions vs Vikings
The trend: These teams have gone Over in five straight games against each other
Each of these games saw the teams combine for at least 50 points, which is especially noteworthy with this game having a total of 50. Detroit’s offense had its way with the Vikings' defense last season, scoring 60 points and racking up 770 yards in the two games. Bettors will also be interested to know that the Lions have covered seven straight games against Minnesota and are on a 9-1 ATS roll as an underdog.
See all Lions vs Vikings trends for Week 7.
Texans vs Packers
The trend: The Texans are 14-6 to the Under in regular-season games since the start of last season
Of the six games that went Over during this stretch, four were set at 40 or below. The total for this matchup at Lambeau Field is at 47.5. Conveniently enough, the Packers' defense has had some standout performances at home where they’ve held two of their three opponents to 13 points or less.
See all Texans vs Packers trends for Week 7.
Seahawks vs Falcons
The trend: The Seahawks are 5-1 to the Over this season
After a cupcake schedule to open the season, Seattle’s defense has really been exposed in the last three games where they allowed 36, 29, and 42 points. Now they head to Atlanta to take on a red-hot Falcons offense that’s scored 74 points in its last two games. Odds makers aren’t doing us any favors though as this game has a total of 51 points.
See all Seahawks vs Falcons trends for Week 7.
Titans vs Bills
The trend: The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of seven or more
Buffalo got into a bad habit of playing down to the competition last season and even had some ugly outright losses to the likes of the Patriots and Broncos. The vibes are high in Buffalo right now with the team coming off a big win on the road vs the Jets and acquiring Amari Cooper. They’re favored by 8.5 in this matchup — what could go wrong?
See all Titans vs Bills trends for Week 7.
Eagles vs Giants
The trend: The Giants have gone Under in nine of their last 11 home games
Of these 11 games, only two crossed the 40 points mark and there were nine instances of one of the sides scoring 10 points or less. With scoring being an issue for the Eagles lately, it might be an opportune time to hop on that Under at 43.5 points.
See all Eagles vs Giants trends for Week 7.
Bengals vs Browns
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in all six of their games
This is just getting pathetic now. It’s one thing if they’re getting shut down by the Steelers or Vikings, but they still haven’t scored more than 18 points vs. a schedule of opponents who’ve combined to allow an average of 25.28 points. To put that number into perspective, the Bengals rank 26th in points allowed per game this season with an average of 25.3. The Browns have a team total of 19.5.
See all Bengals vs Browns trends for Week 7.
Dolphins vs Colts
The trend: The Dolphins are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games as an underdog
Remember the narrative around the Dolphins last season that they couldn’t play up to the competition and beat good teams? Well, it might be carrying over to this season. Miami is also 1-12 SU in their last 13 games as an underdog which is especially pathetic when you consider that eight of these games had spreads of four or less. The Colts are favored by three in Sunday’s matchup.
See all Dolphins vs Colts trends for Week 7.
Panthers vs Commanders
The trend: These teams are a combined 10-2 to the Over
Carolina has seen four of their six games reach 57 total points while the Commanders have hit 53 or more in four of their six games. Don’t expect a lot of kicking in this one as these teams each rank near the bottom of the league in both red zone and third down defense. The game has a total of 51.5.
See all Panthers vs Commanders trends for Week 7.
Raiders vs Rams
The trend: The Rams have gone Under their team total of four of five games this season
Who would’ve thought losing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua could derail an offense? Well, everyone. The Rams come into this game ranked 24th in scoring with 18.8 points per game. Their team total is at 26.5 points which is a number they’ve only topped once all season.
See all Raiders vs Rams trends for Week 7.
Chiefs vs 49ers
The trend: Kansas City is 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018
This run includes six straight outright wins vs some serious juggernauts like the 49ers in the Super Bowl and in road games vs the Ravens and Bills in last season’s playoffs. The Chiefs are also on a tear that’s seen them go 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games and they haven’t lost a game since Christmas Day. The 49ers are favored by 1.5 points.
See all Chiefs vs 49ers trends for Week 7.
Jets vs Steelers
The trend: Pittsburgh is 17-6-4 ATS as a home underdog under Mike Tomlin
The Steelers went 3-1 SU and ATS in this spot last season and will be looking to spoil the debut of Davante Adams. The Jets are on a 2-6-1 ATS slide as a favorite and are favored by 1.5 points in a game that’ll have more drama than a Presidential debate.
See all Jets vs Steelers trends for Week 7.
Ravens vs Buccaneers
The trend: These teams have each scored at least 30 points in three straight games
It’s a nice run that’s seen them combine to go 5-1 to the Over with each squad averaging over 35 points per game. Conveniently, each of these defenses is also struggling with Baltimore being among the worst in the league against the pass while Tampa hasn’t been good against the run. The total for this game is 49.5 points.
See all Ravens vs Buccaneers trends for Week 7.
Chargers vs Cardinals
The trend: The Chargers haven’t seen a game reach 40 combined points yet this season
This seems kinda notable with this game having a total of 44 points. Chargers’ games this season have had an average combined score of just 31.4. The most points in a Chargers game this season came this past week where they combined for 39 points with the Broncos. Also of note is that the Cardinals' offense has scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games.
See all Chargers vs Cardinals trends for Week 7.
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