NFL Week 7 Bet Now, Bet Later: Back Jags Before Lawrence Moves Line

Our heads are still spinning from a wild and whacky NFL Sunday and NFL odds heap on the opening spread and Over/Under totals for Week 7.

This will be a difficult week to navigate, given the number of wonky results to weigh in addition to several big-name injuries throughout the league. Sunday night's opening NFL Week 7 odds could look very different when these lines close next weekend.

However, the mission is still clear: get the best number for our opinion. 

I give you some NFL picks to make now and some you’ll want to wait on until later for Week 7.

Week 7 bet now, bet later picks

• Jaguars at Saints: Bet Now
• Dolpins at Eagles: Bet Later
• Browns at Colts: Bet Now
• Lions at Ravens: Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jaguars (pick'em) at Saints: Bet Now

The Jacksonville Jaguars are starting to look like AFC contenders, having won three straight outings, but the health of QB Trevor Lawrence is anchoring the Week 7 odds at a pick’em. 

Lawrence left Sunday’s blowout win over Indianapolis with a knee injury late in the fourth quarter and told the media that he was OK after the game. The issue is the Jags have a short turnaround in Week 7, visiting the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football.

"Feel pretty good," Lawrence told the media after the win. "Walking around all right. I can't really say much now but want to make sure everything's checked out before (Thursday)… It's a little bit bruised, too, so just trying to kind of sort through what it is now."

There are a handful of books shading the opening spread to Jacksonville, between -0.5 and -1.5. There are also plenty of shops keeping this one off the board until further notice. Lawrence was walking around on the knee and did appear for the postgame press conference without a brace, wrap, or crutches.

The Jaguars face a New Orleans team that has dropped three of its last four contests, including a 20-13 defeat at Houston. The Saints defense has performed well, but the offense ranks in the back third of many offensive measurements.

The look-ahead line was Jacksonville -1 before the events of Week 6. I have to think if Lawrence is cleared, the Jags would be closer to -2 or -2.5. Bet them now if you believe Lawrence is OK.

Best odds to bet Jaguars -0.5 right now

Dolphins at Eagles (+2.5): Bet Later

The Week 6 results for these two teams couldn’t have been any different. The Philadelphia Eagles flopped against the Jets as 6-point road favorites while the Miami Dolphins flipped — literally — to a 42-21 squash of the Panthers as 14-point home faves.

But regardless of recent performances, I believe we’re going to see Philadelphia money at some point this week that will push this point spread to a field goal.

Fueling that move will be the narrative that Miami can roll over the weaker foes but can’t compete with the big boys. And that’s true.

The Fins have stomped a mudhole in the Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers, but got exposed against the Bills in Week 5 and failed to step up against elite competition in Mike McDaniel’s first year in 2022.

That said, Philly hasn’t exactly run the gauntlet in the opening six weeks of football and has looked downright pedestrian in some of those contests. That’s led to a 3-2-1 ATS record.

The market has been very anti-Eagles so far, shrinking their openers almost every week. And while we could see Philadelphia slide to -2 at some books, I do think you’ll get a shot at Dolphins +3 given where the vig is trending on the Eagles -2.5 lines (-115).

Browns at Colts (Under 41.5): Bet Now

This total is sinking like a stone in the hour since opening, hitting the board at 41.5 and dropping to as low as 39 at some sportsbooks Sunday night. As of this writing, there are a handful of 41.5 totals still out there with 40.5 on the board.

As it stands, we could have two backup quarterbacks going at it. Gardiner Minshew will be under center for the Indianapolis Colts while the status of Deshaun Watson remains a mystery. 

Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said Watson was still day-to-day and that the team is being “smart” with his shoulder injury, which would be on four weeks of rest by the time Sunday rolls around.

Indianapolis is going to be rooted in the ground game with Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor going up against the top defense in the NFL. Cleveland enters Week 7 head and shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of EPA allowed per play and is allowing a success rate of just 31.2%.

Cleveland ran the ball 34 times in the upset win over San Francisco and chewed up more than 33 minutes of possession. The Browns kept everything short and safe with P.J. Walker at QB, averaging 4.8 yards per play in the victory.

It’s going to be an ugly, ugly game. So put some makeup on this pig and bet the Under now.

Best odds to bet Under 41.5 right now

Lions at Ravens (Over 44): Bet Later

The Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions were a combined 1-for-8 inside the red zone in Week 6, with Baltimore doing the worst of that work with a 1-for-6 day against Tennessee in London early Sunday morning.

That’s a shit ton of points left on the table. Those missed opportunities for six points have this opening Over/Under on a downward trajectory in the first hours of action, with the total falling from as high as 44.5 to as low as 43.5 points.

Yes, these defenses rank among the elite in many advanced metrics but there’s more meat on the bone offensively, especially for Baltimore. The Ravens are a collective 2-for-9 inside the red zone the past two games but face a Lions defense giving up paydirt on almost 58% of their opponents’ trips inside the twenty.

These offenses could also be aiming to air it out more in Week 7, with Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken calling for the pass more often (Lamar Jackson has thrown 68 passes the past two games).

Detroit could be down RB David Montgomery, who left Sunday with a rib injury. Quarterback Jared Goff threw the ball 44 times in the win over Tampa Bay, which is a season-high and the most pass attempts Goff has thrown since his Lions debut in Week 1 of 2021 (57).

Keep an eye on the total and if keeps tumbling, think about coming back on the Over. 

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