Week 7 looks to be a competitive one, with seven games with spreads under a touchdown or less on the schedule. We see some teams in must-win scenarios looking to avoid falling behind in tight divisional races, and Week 7 looks to be filled with some of those matchups.
While some of the spreads and totals really stand out, I always like to try and exploit player matchups as well, trying to find some good bets offering fair value.
Here's a look at my two favorite NFL parlay picks for Week 7.
Week 7 NFL parlay picks
- Adams Over 7.5 receptions (-130) + Mahomes longest completion Over 38.5 yards (-110) = +237
- Jets vs. Patriots Under 43 (-105) + Eagles vs. Raiders 1H Under 24.5 (-110) = +272
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Davante Adams Over 7.5 receptions (-130) + Patrick Mahomes longest completion Over 38.5 yards (-110) = +237
Davante Adams Over 7.5 receptions (-130)
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a dominant victory versus the Chicago Bears last week, pushing their win streak to six games. This week, they find themselves in a favorable matchup against a struggling Washington Football Team.
Green Bay's Davante Adams is tied for the league lead in receptions at 46, on 66 targets. He's been a focal point of its offense all year long. Last week was one of the first times we really saw him contained. Outside of a 41-yard reception, he was held to four catches by the Bears. Don't expect the same kind of defensive success out of Washington this week, and instead expect Adams targeted early and often, and bet Over his reception total of 7.5.
Patrick Mahomes longest completion Over 38.5 yards (-110)
The highest total of the week occurs in Tennessee, as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to take on the Titans with the number set at 57.5. The Chiefs will have their hands full with Derrick Henry, who could run for upwards of 150 yards on Sunday, but need to match that kind of offensive showing with a great effort out of Patrick Mahomes.
The Titans are giving up an average of 384 passing yards per game, ranking 24th, and have surrendered 24 receptions of 20 or more yards, and the third-most catches of 40+ yards with six. With one of the most explosive offenses coming to play, any dropback could result in a massive gain for the Chiefs. I like Mahomes to connect on a few long receptions.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Under 43 (-105) + Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders 1st half Under 24.5 (-110) = +272
New York Jets vs New England Patriots Under 43 (-105)
The New York Jets lost to the New England Patriots when these two teams met up in Week 2, by a score of 25-9. In their prior meeting, Zach Wilson threw four interceptions, and the Patriots kept their offense fully contained. The Jets have been horrible thus far this year but are coming off a Week 6 bye following a London game, whereas the Patriots are coming off a tough loss at home to the Dallas Cowboys.
The Under is a strong play in this matchup as the Jets’ defense continues to improve, and the Patriots look to secure a much-needed victory. The Under has gone 4-1 in their last five divisional games and that's not surprising, given the conservative approach the Patriots have taken.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Las Vegas Raiders 1st half Under 24.5 (-110)
As the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders, a greater emphasis on the rushing game is necessary as the Eagles have struggled offensively. It's a good game to get back to the rushing attack, as the Raiders rank 25th in run defense and have surrendered 130.7 rushing yards per game. As for the Eagles’ rushing defense, they have struggled as well, although their defense remains the strength of their team they’re surrendering 135.3 rushing yards per game.
Although I do lean towards the Under for the game overall, both teams have been prone to slow starts, tied for 26th in the league, averaging only 8.5 first half points per game. With an emphasis on the run game likely for both squads, take the first half total Under 24.5.
NFL parlays
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