Week 7 NFL Parlay Picks: Jones and Dillon Lead the Way

There are some intriguing totals on the NFL betting board for Week 7, so they’ll be the focus of this week’s parlay plays.

We’ll “follow the money” with one of our parlay wagers, in which both legs are totals. We’ll also mix in a road favorite with another total play.

Below are our parlay picks for Week 7.

Week 7 NFL parlay picks

• •Seahawks-Chargers Over 50 (-107) + Buccaneers-Panthers Under 39.5 (-105) = +278
• •Packers -4.5 (-113) + Texans-Raiders Over 45 (-113) = +255

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Parlay Pick 1

PARLAY: Seahawks-Chargers Over 50 (-107) + Buccaneers-Panthers Under 39.5 (-105) = +278 at PointsBet

Seahawks-Chargers Over 50 (-107)

After some early-week action on the Seahawks-Chargers Under, the total on this tilt has come down a couple of points, and now the money is flooding in on the Over. Despite 57% of the tickets taking the Under, the Over has garnered 69% of the handle.

Although L.A. is outgaining Seattle in yards per game (374.8, seventh in the NFL, to 356.0, 12th in the NFL), the Seahawks have their measure in yards per play, 6.2 (tied for second) to 5.4 (tied for 15th).

Geno Smith has been the driving force behind a Seattle aerial attack that ranks seventh in net yards per attempt (6.8). DK Metcalf should get loose against a secondary featuring the recently-benched J.C. Jackson all afternoon. Promising rookie running back Kenneth Walker III only adds fuel to the fire for Pete Carroll’s squad.

Justin Herbert failed to throw for a touchdown for just the second time in his 38-game NFL career last Monday against a difficult Denver defense. He should right the ship in a big way against a Seahawks defense that’s 29th in net yards per attempt (7.3).

Buccaneers-Panthers Under 39.5 (-105)

It’s difficult to endorse the Buccaneers as double-digit favorites on the road against a division rival, but the path to an Under against the Panthers is clear.

PJ Walker did not impress under center for Carolina last week, going 10-for-16 with only 60 passing yards and no touchdowns in a listless 24-10 loss to the Rams. Although Sam Darnold was activated off the IR this week, interim head coach Steve Wilks has named Walker the starter once more.

Unlike last week, Walker won’t even have halfback Christian McCaffrey the — newest San Francisco 49er — to bail him out. It’s difficult to see how the Panthers will move the chains against a Tampa defense that’s tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (4.7).

Meanwhile, Tom Brady’s troops have been far from an offensive dynamo in 2022, registering only 20.2 points per game en route to a 3-3 record. The Bucs’ rush attack is the worst in the league by both yards per game (67.5) and yards per carry (3.1).

The Carolina pass defense — 10th by yards allowed per attempt (6.8) can also keep Brady and Co. somewhat contained. This line has been falling all week, with the Under getting 60% of the bets and a staggering 88% of the money, which isn’t all that surprising considering this has the look of an ugly 20-6 type of game.

Parlay Pick 2

PARLAY: Packers -4.5 (-113) + Texans-Raiders Over 45 (-113) = +255 at Unibet

Packers -4.5 (-113)

Things are trending down for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who have lost two straight games following a nail-biter win against the Patriots in overtime. But the Commanders have played poorly on offense for the last month (11.8 points per game), and it’s unlikely they’ll wake up in this spot.

Taylor Heinicke steps in for the injured Carson Wentz, and while Wentz has been bad at times this year, Washington fans know that Heinicke can be worse. He played in all 16 games last year and authored a mediocre 20-15 touchdown-interception ratio with 6.9 yards per attempt. Heinicke takes on the Packers’ top-ranked pass defense by yards allowed per game in this one.

Rookie running back Brian Robinson Jr. is a great story for the Commanders, but Matt LaFleur isn’t quaking in his boots against their 24th-ranked rushing attack. Green Bay’s rushing attack, spearheaded by Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, should rule the roost against Washington’s 25th-rated run-stoppers and control the clock.

The Packers are in a good situational spot, as they’re 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 outdoor games.

Texans-Raiders Over 45 (-113)

Both the Texans and the Raiders offenses should be ready to roll off their respective bye weeks on Sunday. Houston’s 26th-ranked offense by points per game (17.2) draws a good matchup with a Las Vegas defense that ranks 21st in yards allowed per game (359.2) and 28th in points allowed (26.0).

Rookie tailback Dameon Pierce is averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game, giving the opposition reason to respect the run game. The Texans are surrendering 414.2 yards per game, the second-worst mark in football.

Josh Jacobs has gone off in his last two games for the Raiders, rushing for 144 yards and 154 yards, respectively. Houston’s 30th-ranked rush defense should offer little resistance.

Trend bettors should note that the Over is 6-2 in Las Vegas’ last eight games following a bye.

Pages related to this topic