The Green Bay Packers play host to the Houston Texans at Lambeau Field on Sunday, October 20, in a bout between a pair of teams looking to put another tally in the wins column.
Green Bay has come up short against its two toughest opponents this season, and my Texans vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks expect Houston to pull off the road upset in Week 7.
Texans vs Packers SGP for NFL Week 7
Texans moneyline
Under 47.5
Joe Mixon Over 18.5 receiving yards
The Houston Texans should give the Green Bay Packers trouble on both sides of the ball this week. The Texans rank second in defensive DVOA, and quarterback C.J. Stroud has a splash of statistical correction coming his way.
Stroud’s yards per attempt, aDOT, and success rate are all down from last year’s marks, and the Green Bay defense might be the perfect opponent to kick-start the improvement for the second-year QB.
Green Bay has only faced a pair of winning teams this season, and they’ve gone 0-2 SU while struggling against the pass. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts posted the fourth-highest EPA per dropback in Week 1, and Minnesota's Sam Darnold ranked fifth in Week 4.
Despite Stroud being due for success, the Packers' defense has managed to surrender just 18.0 points per game at home. Meanwhile, the Texans have played to the Under in four of their past five, with the outlier being their 41-21 win last week against New England.
The Packers have allowed the sixth-most yards per target (7.27) to running backs this year, and Texans running back Joe Mixon has been a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield throughout his career. Mixon has hauled in eight of 11 targets for 74 yards this season, and he’s cleared this total in all three games.
I also value that in both of Green Bay’s losses, the opposing No. 1 RB had solid showings through the air. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley caught both his targets for 23 yards, while Vikings back Aaron Jones hauled in four of five targets for 46 yards.
BetMGM has this SGP priced at just +650, so there’s a sizable positive expected value of 13% attached to the +750 odds that bet365 is offering.
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