Shopping for the best Week 8 odds is a lot like trick-or-treating. You want to hit the houses with the full-sized chocolate bars first, knowing they’ll run out of candy quickly. And then it also pays off to stay out a little later as folks are more apt to dump out whatever leftover treats they have in your bag.
We take the same approach with NFL spreads and totals, grabbing the good lines quickly and waiting for the value to show up later on. Here are my best lines to bet now and the ones you should bet later.
Week 8 bet now, bet later picks
- New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5): Bet Now
- Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-5): Bet Later
- Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (Over 41): Bet Now
- Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 40): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5): Bet Now
In the whacky wagering world of the NFL in 2022, the Giants and the Seahawks are two of the biggest surprise teams through seven weeks of action. However, the betting markets are starting to sour on the 6-1 Giants, with late money coming in against New York the past two weeks.
Everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop for the G-Men, and the early money for this matchup has quickly bumped Seattle from an opener of -1.5. To -2.5 on Sunday night. There is even a field goal spread out there at one online shop.
The Seahawks have been a popular play the last two outings with their spreads slimming off the openers, and we’re seeing it again in Week 8 despite a knee injury to WR DK Metcalf. Seattle has won three of its last four during a tough road-heavy sked, which had them playing three of those games away from Lumen Field.
It returns to “The 12” this Sunday, facing a Giants team making a cross-country trip for a second straight road game and a stretch with three away games in four weeks — racking up the frequent flyer miles — thanks to that Week 5 trip to London.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-5): Bet Later
One of the most aggressive moves off the opening Week 8 odds saw Minnesota move from as high as -6 to as low as -3.5 on Sunday night — just an hour or so after post. Early sharp play jumped on Arizona as a road underdog, which is coming off a win over New Orleans on Thursday night.
The Vikings had a bye in Week 7 and are riding a four-game winning streak but aren’t exactly blowing opponents away. Minnesota has won those games by a collective 22 points and has been outgained in three of four contests while going 1-3 ATS.
That said, the Cardinals are coming off a Thursday win that wouldn’t have happened if not for two pick-six INTs off Andy Dalton. Arizona’s defense is terrible against the pass — 27th in EPA per dropback — and comes indoors to take on a Vikes passing attack sitting No. 8 in EPA per dropback during this winning run.
This line is as low as Minnesota -3.5 at some respected books both online in and Las Vegas, and the rest of the market is coming along too. If you’re putting your money on Minny, wait and see how low it goes — aim for below -4 (an undervalued second-tier key number).
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (Over 41): Bet Now
So much for the Carson Wentz return game. But you know what’s better? Points. With Wentz sidelined and the Commanders clicking with Taylor Heinicke back under center, this non-conference clash has the promise of points after Washington looked solid in a 23-21 win over Green Bay. That’s a huge turnaround compared to what this offense has done — or hasn’t done — in the previous four outings.
The Colts came out flat against the Titans on Sunday and early turnover troubles pumped the breaks on their production. Indianapolis showed better fight in the second half and a return home to the fast track of Lucas Oil Field could jump-start an offense that played fast and furious in its most recent homestand.
This Over/Under hit the board as low as 40.5 points and is sitting as high as 42 on Sunday night. Both offenses can do damage through the air and on the ground and run faster tempos, ranked out Top 10 in plays per game and Top 13 in pace (seconds per play).
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 40): Bet Later
The NFL international series starts up again with the Broncos getting an early wake-up call in London on Sunday morning. Denver is hoping to have quarterback Russell Wilson back under center for this neutral-site game and he’s trending in that direction, according to head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
Hackett told the media that Wilson is on track to play against the Jaguars in Week 8 after missing the loss to the New York Jets on Sunday due to a partially torn hamstring as well as a nagging lat ailment. Denver was left with backup Brett Rypien and the offense managed only nine points — the sixth time this season the Broncos have scored 16 points or less.
This total opened as low as 39.5 and has already started ticking upwards to 40 points with news of Wilson’s possible return. But, given his health and overall level of play in 2022 — ranked out 26th among starting QBs in EPA+CPOE — how much is Russ really worth to the total at this point?
Jacksonville has a sound defense, sitting 12th in EPA per play allowed, while the backbone of the Broncos remains the stop unit. Denver owns the second-lowest EPA allowed per play in the league, which has led to a 1-6 O/U count through seven games.
If you like the Under again in this UK matchup, wait for the official announcement on Wilson’s status and see if it adds a point or two to the total before coming back on the other side of that move later.
