The NFL season is in full swing and so are all the glorious prop markets that come with it. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to.
Week 8 is here and we’re high on a pair of tight ends, fading the Texans for one more week, and dropping a two-unit play on an interception.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 8.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Pitts Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Texans Under 14.5 (-120)
- Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-180)
- Goedert Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Pitts Stop
Top 5 pick Kyle Pitts has flipped a switch and has started to dominate in the passing game. He has 282 yards and 16 catches over his last two weeks, which is the most in all of football over that stretch.
Pitts is finding his confidence and Matt Ryan is feeding him. Ryan sits third in the league in passes per game, at 40.67, and there are a ton of opportunities in an Atlanta offense that continues to struggle to run the ball. Even with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage in the lineup in Week 7, Pitts set a career-high in yards with 163.
Pitts is getting used all over the field and is lining up outside at 31 percent of his snaps, which is the highest rate among TEs, while he is getting used as an in-line TE just 12 percent of the time.
Pitts’ receiving total sits at 61.5 yards this week versus the Carolina Panthers, who have the third-best defensive success rate, but are mediocre when it comes to covering TEs. Pitts is a mismatch with Carolina’s corners, who Pitts has as many as eight inches and 80 pounds on. Let the Pitts train keep rolling on this small total.
PICK: Kyle Pitts Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
The Mills Have No Eyes
Stepping away from player props, one of our favorite team props is fading a struggling team and hitting the Under on a team total. For the second-straight week, that will be the Houston Texans.
This Davis Mills-led offense has scored zero, three, five, and nine points in four of its last five games. The Texans have scored a pathetic four touchdowns since Mills has taken over and we don’t like them to all of sudden get hot against the Rams’ fourth-ranked defense by DVOA. Although we think the Rams’ defense is overrated (No. 25 defensive success rate), this is still a Houston team who has a terrible defense (No. 30 success rate) and also the worst offense by success rate.
This may be Mills’ last game as a quarterback as Tyrod Taylor is getting healthier but until the Mills experiment is over, we don’t trust the Texans to score more than three times. Brandin Cooks accounts for 45 percent of the team’s air yard share since Week 3 and could get locked up with Jalen Ramsey on the outside. There is a massive difference in getting this number at 14.5 and 13.5, which might happen as it is tilting to the Under at 14.5.
PICK: Houston Texans team total Under 14.5 (-120 at bet365)
Tua Diving
The Bills have been ball-hawking on defense this year and sit second in the league at 1.7 interceptions per game. Over their last three games, they have seven picks and have recorded one in every game since Week 2. They're coming off a bye and have had plenty of time to game plan against Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense.
Tua didn’t play much in the Week 2 meeting (just four passes before exiting) but the Bills laid the hammer down and walked away with a 35-0 beatdown of the Fins. Tua did, however, play against the Bills in Week 17 last year, where the then-rookie QB tossed a trio of passes to the Bills’ defense.
The Bills should force the Dolphins to abandon the run pretty quickly, just like they did in Week 2. Miami is a poor running team to boot, which is why Tua has attempted 88 passes over his last two games.
With a price of -180 for the Miami QB to throw an INT vs. one of the best takeaway teams in football, that’s a hard yes for us on the Over and a risk of two units to win 1.12 units.
PICK: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-180 at Caesars)
Goedert of War
Dallas Goedert is now the man, or TE, in Philadelphia after Zach Ertz was shipped to the Cardinals last week. Without Ertz stealing snaps and targets, Goedert finished with season highs in snaps, routes, and slot percentage. He ran 57 percent of his snaps in the slot and finished with three catches for 70 yards in a game in which the offense struggled.
Goedert’s receiving total can be found at 49.5 (-110) for Sunday’s match against the Lions. Detroit has a bottom-10 success rate against the pass and is giving up 282 passing yards per game over its last three. The Lions give up nearly 50 yards per game to opposing TEs and Tyler Higbee, Mark Andrews, Robert Tonyan, and George Kittle have all gone over 45 yards this year versus Detroit.
Miles Sanders will also be out as he hit the I.R. this week. Sanders was getting anywhere from 10 to 16 touches a week and any extra possible looks in the offense is great news for Goedert and his modest total.
It’s never easy trusting this Philadelphia offense, but Goedert’s usage has been consistent and is now the No. 2 passing option on the team.
PICK: Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
NFL prop picks for Friday
MAC attack vol. 2
Sometimes you have to stick with what works — and that right now is Colts tight end Mo Alie-Cox. His receiving yard total is still just 20.5, yards despite topping that number in four straight weeks. This is a rare combination of a very low total and a consistent player.
MAC is averaging nearly three catches a game since Week 4 and 36.25 yards per game over that stretch. The TE has been flying so low under the radar that this is the first week that his receiving totals have opened early. MAC can get it done in a negative game script (see Houston game) and with just one catch.
He faces a Tennessee team on Sunday that gives up nearly four catches per game to opposing TEs but is one of the better TE-defending teams in football. This would scare us off a larger total, but at a modest 20.5 yards, with a possible 15-20 snaps in the passing game behind Jack Doyle, that’s an Over for us.
Alie-Cox has quietly become Pro Football Focus’ No. 12-graded receiving tight end.
PICK: Mo Alie-Cox Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Slots of fun
The New England Patriots will go into their Week 8 matchup without slot corner Jonathan Jones, who hit the IR this week. Jones wasn’t that great, grading out as PFF’s No. 97 corner (out of 112). His replacement, Jalen Mills, grades poorly in coverage as well and allowed Jamison Crowder to catch four balls in the slot last week with poor quarterback play.
Keenan Allen isn’t having his best season, having topped 60 yards just twice this year, but there are a few things in his favor this week. Mike Williams is coming back — which may sound like a bad thing but the Ravens keyed in on Allen in Week 6 (with Williams playing limited snaps) as the slot receiver saw a season-low five targets. Secondly — and more importantly — Austin Ekler missed practice on Thursday, which puts a massive question mark on his availability for Sunday.
Ekeler sees about 6-8 targets per game.
Allen’s inconsistent season has seen his Week 8 receiving yard total drop to 65.5 yards after closing at 82.5 as recently as Week 4. This is a great buy-low spot for the sure-handed receiver against a New England defense that gave up 445 yards passing to the Cowboys in Week 6.
PICK: Keenan Allen Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Taylormade
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Over on his rushing prop in four of the last five weeks and has three 100-yard games over that stretch as well. Since Week 4, he’s averaging 104 yards on the ground and nearly 16 carries per game. Despite the huge success on the ground, the Indy running back is looking at a rushing total of 68.5 yards this weekend versus the Titans.
Things could get even better for Taylor this week as right tackle Braden Smith returned to practice and should be good to go after exiting in Week 1. Smith graded as one of the best run-blockers in the league a season ago and is a huge boost to this O-line, which created just 87 yards rushing in the last meeting in Week 3.
Tennessee is strongest at defending the run on the left side of their defensive line (No. 1 in adjusted yards allowed) so the addition of Smith at RT should even things out. The strength of the Indy rushing attack is off the left tackle, where they rank third in adjusted line yards at 5.34, while the Titans rank 30th at defending the run on that side of the line.
With a competitive game likely in store for Sunday between the Colts and Titans, Taylor should be the featured piece of that offense as Frank Reich tries to keep Derrick Henry from grinding down his Indianapolis defense. Over 68.5 yards it is.
PICK: Jonathan Taylor Over 68.5 rushing yards (-110 at William Hill)
Blessed are the Gesicki
Since Week 2, Miami tight end Mike Gesicki is a perfect 6-0 to the Over on his receiving yards prop. He has become a favorite target of his QB and his 25 percent air yard share ranks second on the team. His receiving total was in the mid-20s to open the year but after three 85+-yard games under his belt, his total has ballooned to 46.5 yards — and that is still a bargain for us.
Gesicki has really come into his own over the last two weeks, with 15 grabs and 200 yards to show for it since crossing the pond. WR DeVante Parker is highly questionable for Sunday’s game against the Bills and this number will surely go up if the oft-injured receiver misses the game.
The Miami TE went 3/41/0 versus the Bills in Week 2 but that was with Jacoby Brissett under center. Tua Tagovailoa has turned Gesicki into one of his favorite targets and the TE amassed 177 yards versus the Bills in his two games against them last season.
This number will likely head north as Sunday draws closer and getting on it now is advised. We like Gesicki to move to 7-1 to the Over on his receiving yard total this week.
PICK: Mike Gesicki Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Season to date: 43-51, -7.45 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
NFL Week 8 prop betting card
- Kyle Pitts Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Houston Texans team total Under 14.5 (-120 at bet365)
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-180 at Caesars)
- Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
- Mo Alie-Cox Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Keenan Aleen Over 65.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
- Jonathan Taylor Over 68.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
- Mike Gesicki Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
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