NFL Week 9 Bet Now or Bet Later: Niners Could Be Finer With Time

We hit the midway mark of the NFL season which means spreads and totals are sharper than ever. That makes getting the best of the number even more important. Find out which lines to bet now and which ones to bet later in Week 9.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 1, 2021 • 17:18 ET • 4 min read

Woah, we’re halfway there. 

Sometimes NFL betting can feel like you’re living on a prayer, especially hitting Week 9 – the midway mark of the new 18-week season. 

At this point in the schedule, bookies know what’s up. That means that not only do you have to do the homework for your Week 9 picks, but you have to back them up with the best of the number.

We help you do so with our best NFL betting tips on which pointspreads and totals to bet now, and which ones to bet later. 

Week 9 bet now, bet later picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Alright New England, we see you. The Patriots crossed the country for an impressive win over the Chargers in Week 8 and stay on the highway with a Week 9 trip to face the Panthers. Books opened New England as low as -2.5 on the road and this is ticking up to a field goal – and beyond – if you don’t act now.

Carolina snapped a four-game slide with a fugly 19-13 win at Atlanta on Sunday but the offense is a mess (Christian McCaffrey maybe coming off IR in Week 9) and Sam Darnold is nursing a concussion that took him out of action against the Falcons. That may or may not be a good thing...

The Pats, on the other hand, have won three of their last four outings and that lone blemish was an overtime loss to Dallas. After a slow start to the season, New England is averaging almost 34 points during this four-game stretch. If you like New England, snap them up now and avoid the half-point hook that’s coming.

Kyler Murray was last seen in a walking boot after the Thursday loss to Green Bay, but it sounds like he’ll be good to go in Week 9 after enjoying a mini bye. The Cardinals no longer have the pressure of an undefeated record but hit the road for just their second away game in the last five weeks. 

San Francisco snapped its four-game skid with a victory at Chicago on Sunday, posting 33 points in its biggest offensive outpouring since Week 1. The Niners are holding out hope that many key bodies, on both sides of the ball, came return from the IR in Week 9.

San Francisco lost a hard-fought 17-10 game at Arizona in Week 5 and bookies are showing them respect with this opening Arizona -2.5. That spread carries a price tag of -115 and some books have already ticked up to a field goal. If you like the 49ers in this NFC West war, wait it out and get as many points as you can with the home side.

Editor's note: Written before Derrick Henry injury news was released on Monday morning. Total is sitting 54 points.

A high-scoring non-conference clash is set for Sunday Night Football in Week 9. The total for Titans at Rams opened as low as 53.5 and is quickly chugging upward as high as 54.5 at some shops. 

Tennessee is on a four-game winning run, backed behind an offense putting up more than 32 points in regulation per game in that span. The Titans have a great balance of rush and pass and have played Over the number in five of their first eight games in 2021.

Los Angeles is Top 5 in points and the defense has been a bit puffed up in recent weeks due to a cast of offensively-challenged opponents. The Rams played Over the number in their first four weeks of action, which included some capable scoring attacks. So, if you like another busy night for the scoreboard, bet the Over right now before this number swells to 55 points or more.

This total opened at 48.5 and quickly jumped to as high as 49.5 at some online shops. If you’re one of those folks betting the Over, you’re putting a lot of faith in the Bills to score the lion’s share of the points after the Jaguars squirted out a lonely touchdown in a loss at Seattle on Sunday.

Jacksonville has failed to score more than 21 points in all but one game this season (23 points in a win over Miami in London) and faces a Buffalo defense that locked down Miami to a mere 11 points in Week 8 and ranks among No. 1 in EPA per play at -0.196. The Jaguars defense is terrible – sitting 32 spots away from the Bills in that same advanced metric (+0.189 EPA per play) – which is what’s driving this total north.

But if you like the Bills to lock it down and lean to the Under, wait for a little bit and see how high this total goes before buying back. And just a FYI: NFL games with spreads of two touchdowns or more (-14 or higher) have produced a 19-33 Over/Under record (63% Unders) since 2015, including 1-4 O/U this season. Buffalo is giving -14 on the road in Week 9.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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