The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down four to five units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re coming off just our second losing week of the season but are still up 6.67units on the season. We have a great mix of touchdown props for Week 9 that range from -125 up to +350. Without further ado, we bring you our Week 9 player TD props.
NFL Week 9 touchdown props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 9 TD props
Taysom Hill anytime TD (+225 at bet365)
The New Orleans Saints are back to square one at quarterback, as Jameis Winston is out and Taysom Hill is expected to return to the lineup after getting a limited practice on Wednesday and full practice on Thursday. Even if Trevor Sieman starts as expected, Hill will likely get reps around the goal line where he is a threat to score.
Hill already has three rushing touchdowns this season. He added eight rushing TDs last season, with four in the four games he started. If there ever was a teacher’s pet award given to an NFL player, it would be Hill for his relationship with head coach Sean Payton, who loves him like a son.
New Orleans plays at home versus a bad Atlanta defense that has yet to concede a rushing score to a quarterback but does allow the second-most QB rushing yards at 35 per game. Playing at home could also help Hill call his own number in the red zone with a quieter atmosphere.
Hill is paying +225 to score a TD at bet365, which is a great price with other books offering it at +170. That’s going to be a 1.35-unit play for us to win three units and we’ll be waiting for his two-plus TD market to open to sprinkle a little there.
Boston Scott anytime TD (+240 at bet365)
The Chargers have been the league’s worst run defense by success rate and have allowed a whopping seven rushing TDs over the last three weeks. Damien Harris had a TD last week, three different Ravens running backs scored versus the Chargers in Week 7, while the Browns’ backfield totaled three rushing TDs in Week 6. This week, the Eagles get to rack up points on the ground but with a crowded backfield, where is the best TD bet?
Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell all had at least 12 carries in last week’s thumping of the Lions. Scott led the way with a 45 percent snap share but conceded carries to Howard and Gainwell later in the game with a lopsided score.
Scott saw the team’s first seven rushes of the game last week and gave way to Howard and Gainwell after getting the early reps in the series. Both Howard and Scott saw red zone carries but Scott turned his three into two TDs while Howard needed seven to get one score.
Both guys are paying +240 to score a TD and we think the better play is on Scott for Week 9. At +240, that’s a 1.25-unit play for us to win three units.
Tommy Sweeney anytime TD (+350 at PointsBet)
The Buffalo Bills will be without TE Dawson Knox for another week, as he has been ruled out for the Week 9 matchup against the Jaguars. Tommy Sweeney will take his place in the starting lineup and played 60 snaps (43 of those on passing downs) last week versus the Dolphins. He ran a route on 77 percent of Josh Allen’s passes and finished with three catches (on four targets) and 30 yards.
Although the numbers aren’t huge, Allen loves looking to the TE in the red zone, as Sweeney had three RZ targets last week with one catch. Things could be more profitable this week, as the Jaguars give up 0.6 TDs and 69 yards to opposing tight ends per game, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Sweeney closed at +305 to score a TD last week but can be had for +350 this week at PointsBet. We’d likely play this number to +300 and expect it to drop quickly. This is just a dart on a great price and we’re throwing down 0.6 units to win 2.1 units.
Nick Chubb anytime TD (-125 at PointsBet)
The Bengals are one of the league’s worst tackling teams and Week 8 proved this. Running backs Michael Carter and Ty Johnson combined for 258 all-purpose yards and two scores. Now the Bengals’ defense has to deal with Nick Chubb and Cleveland's offensive line.
The Browns are a piss-poor passing team, which is why Odell Beckham wants out. What the Browns do well is get the ball to their backs. Chubb is -125 to score a TD, which is a solid price especially considering his rushing total is at 85-plus yards. D’Ernest Johnson stole only four carries away from the No. 1 back last week as the Browns are still without Kareem Hunt.
Chubb will be a few more days over his previous calf injury and should be closer to pre-injury form, when he ran for 261 yards and one score in Weeks 4 and 5. Cincy looked poor in stopping anything in the open field last week and getting a Top 5 RB at -125 is something we’re willing to put one unit on.
Season to date: 12-21 SU +6.67
