NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 1: Danny Dimes and the G-Men Will Struggle Against the Broncos D

The NFL season is here and so are all the glorious prop bet markets that come with it. We are looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. 

We’re backing a pair of weak offenses — and hitting the Under on their team totals — as well as hitting a QB's rushing total in their NFL debut.

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Midlife Giants

A lot has been said about the depth of the New York Giants' offense heading into the 2021 season with Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Sterling Shepard all options for Daniel Jones in the offense. Unfortunately for the G-Men, heading into Sunday’s matchup (versus a legit Denver defense) Barkley is questionable, Golladay missed practices but looks like a go while Engram has been ruled out.

The Giants are getting three points at home versus Denver after opening at +1. They have a team total of 20.5 points but have fallen to 19.5 in many books. Last season, New York didn’t reach the 20-point mark until Week 5 and averaged a league-low 16.4 points per game at MetLife Stadium.

Pro Football Focus has the Broncos as the No. 1 secondary heading into the season after the additions of Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby, and Top-10 pick Patrick Surtain II. Their two safeties both rank inside the Top-10 at their positions and might be the best safety duo in football. On top of that, they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb as their edge rushers and have plenty of talent on the D-line, with Shelby Harris ranking as one of PFF's best interior D-linemen.

The New York offense keeps hinting that it will start slow to begin the year, which is pretty concerning to hear when it comes from its No. 1 wide receiver. We’re going to trust Golladay and fade this banged-up unit by hitting the Under on its team total.

PREDICTION: New York Giants team total Under 20.5 (best odds: -130 at DraftKings)

Lawrence Depot

Quarterback rushing totals have become of the more exciting player prop markets. One single rush can cash backers’ tickets, which makes every offensive play a possible winner.

QB rushing total favorites like Daniel Jones have seen their totals creep up to the 20-yard mark, which isn’t ideal for non-dual-threat signal-callers. Russell Wilson’s is at 24.5 yards, Kyler Murray’s total is set at 43.5 yards and Jalen Hurts’ rushing prop total can be found at 45.5 yards.

So instead of proven Over winners, we’re looking at rookie who checks a lot of boxes.

Trevor Lawrence’s rushing total is set at a very reasonable 16.5 yards. The 2021 No. 1 pick rushed for over 940 yards in three years at Clemson and took off 6.8 times a game on average last season.

Another angle we love for rookie QB rushing totals in debuts is the speed of the NFL game. Lawrence is a special talent but the difference in game speed between college and the NFL is exponential. If Lawrence can’t go through his progressions quick enough, it’s not beneath him to tuck and run — and at 16.5 total rushing yards, we aren’t saying no against a terrible Houston defense that finished 29th in DVOA rushing defense.

PREDICTION: Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 rushing yards (best odds: -111 at BetMGM) 

Visual Defense

It means something when you open up the 2021 season as 7.5-point chalk on the road. That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers — and their vaunted defense. Because let's be honest: we all know the offense isn’t the reason why the 49ers are laying over seven points on the road.

With a front seven that enters the season healthy, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions offense are in a rough spot for Week 1.

Nick Bosa is finally healthy and ready to wreak havoc after missing his sophomore season due to injury. PFF ranks only four edge defenders higher than him coming into the year while San Fan still finished as the No. 5 weighted DVOA defense a year ago without him.

Without Sean McVay, Goff may be lost with first-time coach Dan Campbell, who likely won’t be holding the signal-caller’s hand until 15 seconds on the play clock. Detroit could rival the Texans for the 2021 top draft pick and enter Sunday with one of the worst receiving corps in all of football — and a running game that just declared D’Andre Swift active despite questions about his health ahead of Sunday.

The Lions’ team total can be found at a few books as high 19.5 points but is posting 17.5’s in most places. With a total of 46 points, well under the key number of 47, points are not to be expected — and with a new QB and HC in Detroit, it could take some time for Campbell and Goff’s offense to build familiarity.

And Week 1 versus the 49ers’ defense is not a great spot to prove doubters wrong.

PREDICTION: Detroit Lions team total Under 19.5 (best odds: -130 at Pinnacle)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Whose Line is it, Callaway

It’s a new world in New Orleans as Drew Brees has moved on, Michael Thomas is out and Jameis Winston is the new QB. Winston’s skillset is an immediate upgrade to all Saints receivers despite a tough matchup with the Packers’ secondary.

Last year with Brees at the helm, New Orleans attempted just 29 passes that traveled 20-plus yards, which was the lowest amount since 2014. Winston will push this offense downfield and we all know the former No. 1 overall pick isn’t afraid to throw into tight spaces.

Benefitting the most Sunday should be undrafted second-year receiver Marquez Callaway. Thomas is on the shelf and fellow wideout Tre’Quan Smith missed practice this week and is considered questionable for Sunday. 

Everyone was talking about Callaway out of training camp this year and the WR caught eight of his nine preseason targets for 165 yards and two scores over two warm-up games. It’s unlikely that Green Bay corner Jaire Alexander will shadow Callaway, knowing that Deonte Harris, possibly the fastest player in the league, is running routes as well.

Callaway’s receiving total sits at 51.5 yards with a few books posting 52.5 or 53.5. It could be the beginning of a solid season for both the receiver and the Saints’ passing game.

PREDICTION: Marquez Callaway Over 51.5 receiving yards (best odds: -115 at DraftKings)

Baby Back Gibs

It’s always a reassuring thing when Adam Chernoff, host of the Simple Handicap podcast, is also backing a player prop bet that we had locked and loaded in the midweek. If you read anything we did here last season, then you know we loved the receiving game of Washington’s running backs.

Antonio Gibson emerged as a top-end talent last season when the rookie finished with over 1,000 all-purpose yards despite sharing touches in the Washington backfield. He finished with 247 receiving yards but averaged 27 receiving yards per game between Weeks 4 and 12 before an injury in Week 13 sidelined him. 

This offense loved to get the RBs involved in 2020 (J.D. McKissic had 80 grabs for 500-plus yards) and with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, we doubt that will change the philosophy much.

The Football Team will also be missing a legit No. 2 receiving threat Sunday versus the Chargers, as Curtis Samuel has landed on the injured reserve.

Reports out of Washington are saying that the team is trying to morph Gibson’s role into something similar to Christian McCaffrey’s, which makes sense due to Ron Rivera’s ties with the Panthers. 

The Chargers allowed 5.8 receptions per game to opposing RBs last season, which tied them for the fourth-most in the league. 

Gibson’s rec total can be found at 15.5 yards at FanDuel, while most other books are posting 16.5 or higher. 

PREDICTION: Antonio Gibson Over 15.5 receiving yards (best odds: -115 at FanDuel)

Laviska Marketing

Sunday’s meeting between the Texans and Jaguars will feature two of last season’s worst pass defenses. Houston finished with the 29th-ranked DVOA pass defense and allowed an average of 13 catches for 174 yards and 1.4 TDs to opposing WRs per game in 2020. 

The Texans will also be trying to hide No. 2 Vernon Hargreaves and his sub-50 PFF grade on the outside. If Sean Payton is smart, he'll find ways to match his best receivers against the 5-foot-10 CB, who graded as the 117th corner last season.

First-overall pick Trevor Lawrence’s passing yard total sits at 245.5 yards, which comes in slightly lower than Houston’s allowed average of 256 passing yards per game last season.

The Jaguars do have some talent on the outside that could help Lawrence in his NFL debut. Second-year wideout Laviska Shenault has shown some solid chemistry with the rookie QB in the preseason and hauled in a TD in the preseason finale. There has been a ton of buzz about Shenault out of training camp and he could be in for some serious targets with the rest of the Jaguars' receivers nicked up.

No. 1 WR D.J. Chark is working his way back from a broken hand in August that had him sidelined for the entire preseason, while veteran slot receiver Marvin Jones sprained his AC joint in the preseason but will likely suit up on Sunday. This leaves the hyped Shenault as the Jags’ healthiest receiver, and with a receiving yards total of just 44.5 yards at DraftKings, we aren’t passing this up. His +275 anytime TD at BetMGM is also something to think about.

PREDICTION: Laviska Shenault Over 44.5 receiving yards (best odds: -110 at DraftKings)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Burrow Boost

Joe Burrow is back, and hopefully, so is the Bengals offense. This team is loaded at the skill positions on offense and all signs are pointing to a pass-heavy attack this season. Last season, Cincinnati led the league in neutral-script pass rate at 64 percent and passing palsy per game (40) when Burrow was under center last year.

The Vikings finished with the league’s 26th-ranked weighted DVOA defense a season ago and although they are stronger against the pass than the rush, this is still a team starting three players in the secondary who rank poorly at their respective positions. Things don’t get any better for the Vikes in their nickel package with Mackensie Alexander and his 63rd rank out of 121 CBs filling in. PFF is not very high on this secondary.

Burrow’s passing attempt total is set at 35.5 and can be found at +100 at BetMGM. The sophomore QB went 9-2 O/U on this attempt total last year and now has better weapons at his disposal. He should be playing in a negative game script thanks to the terrible state of the Cincy cornerbacks who could get roasted against Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.         

PREDICTION: Joe Burrow Over 35.5 pass attempts (best odds: +100 at BetMGM) 

Skipping Leg Day

The Detroit Lions cut both of their kickers a week ago after Randy Bullock and Zan Gonzalez both got the pink slip. They later signed Austin Seibert off waivers from the Bengals. Seibert has made just 31 of his 38 NFL field-goal attempts and was 6 for 9 last season with Cleveland including 1 for 5 from 40-plus yards.

New Lions head coach Dan Campbell has said he plans on going for two often — if the offense does score — and go for it more than usual on fourth down. Either way, the Lions are projected to have one of the worst offenses in football and their kicking situation is as bad as it gets.

Detroit enters Week 1 as 7.5-point home underdogs meaning there could be a lot of catch-up in the Lions’ future. Playing from behind means even less kicking, which has us scouring the kicking prop market and finding the best numbers.

The 49ers to score the longest field goal is paying -125 at Bet365. Seibert can’t even hit 40-yarders and will have to beat San Francisco’s Robbie Gould, who went 9 for 10 from 40-49 yards and 2 for 4 from 50-plus in a down year in 2021. We aren’t huge fans of kicking props, but Detroit’s situation can’t be overlooked.

PREDICTION: San Francisco to kick longest field goal (best odds: -125 at Bet365)

Jumping the Market on Jackson

The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler has been a DNP twice at practice this week with a hamstring issue (which is also the reason why he missed time last season). There is a real chance that the RB will be limited Sunday versus Washington or even possibly sit out.

The Chargers have some competent backups, and ones who have seen plenty of reps in Ekeler’s previous absences. It was Justin Jackson that had the bigger role when Ekeler was out last season. Jackson had 50 touches in three games before the RB went down with an injury himself. Over those three games, he totaled 291 yards but failed to find the endzone. Jackson out-touched Joshua Kelley 50-37 in the three games that Ekeler was out and Jackson was healthy.

Washington poses a tough task for any RB, but the WFT did surrender 1,300 yards on the ground last year and eight scores. With the uncertainty of Ekeler’s participation on Sunday, Jackson’s prop markets aren’t widely available. However, his TD prop can be had for as high as +430 at FanDuel, which is a great number if we’re trying to get ahead of the market as other books have this play as low as +160. 

PREDICTION: Justin Jackson anytime TD (best odds: +430 at FanDuel)

NFL prop picks for Thursday

An Early Christmas Prescott

The wait is finally over as the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will kick off the NFL regular seasons under the lights of Thursday Night Football. Dallas QB Dak Prescott missed the majority of last year with a dislocated ankle and has been dealing with shoulder soreness in the preseason. Even if the reports are true that the quarterback is fully healthy ahead of Thursday’s tilt, the Cowboys’ offense still has a lot to worry about with a Tampa Bay defense that could be pushing around their O-line.

Dallas will be without RG Zack Martin (COVID), backup Brandon Knight, Josh Ball and starting RT La'el Collins is questionable with a stinger. This is not the ideal setup for Prescott against a Tampa front seven that had Patrick Mahomes running for his life in February. 

Tampa finished tied for first last year with an average of 1.1 interceptions per game. They have every starter returning from last year and with the D-line having a plus matchup, it should help force Prescott into some uncomfortable situations in his first regular season game since October of last year. The Dallas QB threw four picks in his five starts last year. 

PREDICTION: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 interceptions (-130)

Jefferson’s Day

The Cincinnati Bengals finished the 2020 season with the 27th-ranked DVOA pass defense. Now they will enter the 2021 season down one starting corner in Trae Waynes and have to stop one of the best receiving duos in the league in Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

The Bengals will try to fill the gap at CB with Eli Apple. If that name is familiar, it might be because he has been a massive bust after being picked 10th overall by the New York Giants in 2016 and has made stops in New Orleans and Carolina. He was cut twice last year for conditioning reasons. Whoever lines up across the former Buckeye could be in for a big day. 

Thielen’s receiving total sits at 59.5 yards while Jefferson sits at 79.5. We bounced around between both receivers, but with Jefferson topping 80 yards in nine of his last 14 games and reaching at least 100 yards in seven of his 17 games, we're going with the sophomore this Sunday. 

Jefferson had an AC sprain in his shoulder during the preseason but has had nearly four weeks to recover and is entering an offense where not much has changed in regards to QB play, coaching and play-calling from last year. 

PREDICTION: Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 receiving yards (-118)

No Cam Scams

Cam Newton took 31 rushes inside the 10-yard line last year, which includes 19 rushes inside the five-yard line. Those 19 totes produced nine rushing TDs but also accounted for 79 percent of New England’s rushes from that distance. With Cam gone and newcomer Mac Jones seldom leaving the pocket, all of sudden there are a lot of rushing TDs up for grabs in New England.

The Patriots shipped out Sony Michel to the Rams for a reason: they love third-year runner Damien Harris. The former Alabama running back averaged 5.0 yards per carry a season ago and finished with nearly 70 yards on the ground per game. He only rushed for two TDs in 2021 but will have plenty of opportunities this year, starting with the Miami Dolphins this Sunday.

Harris did not see the Dolphins last year but in the two games New England had against its division rival, Michel averaged four yards per carry and the Pats scored three rushing touchdowns. We also like New England leaning on the run a little more with Jones under center and getting conservative inside the 20-yard line. 

At +110 to score a TD, we’re getting on board with an RB who we’re predicting to have a big season.

PREDICTION: Damien Harris anytime TD (+110)

NFL Week 1 prop betting card

• New York Giants team total Under 20.5 (-130 at DraftKings )
• Trevor Lawrence Over 16.5 rushing yards (-111 at BetMGM)
• Detroit Lions team total Under 19.5 (-130 at Pinnacle)

     - - 

• Marquez Callaway Over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
• Antonio Gibson Over 15.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
• Laviska Shenault Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

     - - 

• Joe Burrow Over 35.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
• San Francisco to kick longest field goal (-125 at Bet365)
• Justin Jackson anytime TD (+430 at FanDuel)

     - - 

• Dak Prescott Over 0.5 interceptions (-130)
• Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 receiving yards (-118)
• Damien Harris anytime TD (+110)

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