After 18 weeks of grueling action, the NFL Playoffs are finally here.
If you thought the regular season spreads and totals were tough, wait until you get a load of the NFL Wild Card Round odds.
With just a handful of games on the board, oddsmakers fine-tuning their numbers, and any rough spots are quickly sanded down by early action. That makes getting the best of the number a battle.
I run down the opening NFL odds for the Wild Card round and highlight the best spreads and totals to bet now with your NFL picks, as well as some lines you may want to wait to bet later.
Wild Card Round bet now, bet later picks
- Eagles at Buccaneers (Under 45): Bet Now
- Browns at Texans (Under 44.5): Bet Later
- Rams (+4) at Lions: Bet Now
- Steelers (+8.5) at Bills: Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 45): Bet Now
Odds for the NFC Wild Card Round started popping up before the Philadelphia Eagles even finished their game with the New York Giants, with the total opening at 45.5 points in Tampa Bay and quickly trimming to 45 with early play on the Under.
As of this writing, we don’t know the extent of the injury to Philadelphia star WR A.J. Brown, who left Week 18 with an apparent knee injury in the first half. From the looks of things on the field, it wasn’t good.
The Eagles also watched QB Jalen Hurts dislocate the middle finger on his throwing hand and while he did tape it up and come back out, he eventually left the game with the Giants running away on the scoreboard.
That’s two big hits for an Eagles offense that’s been hot and cold in the final weeks of the season — especially chilly on the road where they’ve scored just 22 points per contest. The Eagles back into the postseason playing their worst football with injuries to their two best players. Not a great look.
The Buccaneers won the booby prize known as the NFC South, but this team is anchored in defense, at least at home. Tampa Bay has allowed just over 17 points against per home stand and ranked No. 4 in yards per point allowed inside Raymond James Stadium.
Offensively, the Bucs aren’t blowing up the scoreboard but they’re efficient. Tampa Bay was 11th in third down conversion percentage, second when going for it on fourth down, and sat middle of the road in seconds per play.
Tampa Bay was 2-6 Over/Under in pirate waters during the regular season while Philadelphia will likely end up 2-7 O/U on the road (with the fourth quarter vs. N.Y. still wrapping up).
If you want to get out ahead of any injury news for Philly, bet the Under now.
Best odds to bet Under 45 right now
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (Under 44.5): Bet Later
This improbable Wild Card matchup opened with a total of 43 points and quickly started ticking up, with the number climbing to as high as 44.5 in the first hour of action on Sunday night.
This total isn’t done moving, especially when you consider these teams combined for 58 points just a few short weeks ago in Houston. The Texans had the duo of Davis Mills and Case Keenum under center — not C.J. Stroud — and that number closed at 40 points.
All that said, if you’re looking for value on the Under, let this total run wild in the next couple of days. I see it breaking 45 points and maybe even hitting 46 at some books. But I’m greedy.
The second coming (or third?) of Joe Flacco has been a boon for Over backers, but those numbers were built against some dog-shit defenses. Yes, that does include Houston, but the Texans were the walking wounded heading into that Week 16 matchup.
Houston allowed just over 20 points per home game and finished 3-6 Over/Under inside NRG Stadium. That made vast improvements in the second half of the schedule, sitting 12th in EPA allowed per play since Week 11 and boasting a 2-6 O/U count in that stretch.
And while Stroud has played beyond his years, he is a rookie making his first playoff start (those guys haven’t fared well) against a Browns stop unit that finished the year No. 1 in EPA allowed per play, No. 1 in success rate allowed, and boasts one of the nastiest pass rushes in the NFL.
The big question for side and total bettors is if that defense can travel in the Wild Card Round. If you believe in the Browns D, then wait this one out and buy back the Under when this total reaches those key stops.
Los Angeles Rams (+4) at Detroit Lions: Bet Now
The Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions took different paths to the postseason in Week 18.
Los Angeles protected most of its starters and walked away from the finale relatively unscathed.
Detroit, on the other hand, played everybody and watched as key offensive cogs like star TE Sam LaPorta and WR/special teams weapon Kalif Raymond left due to injuries. LaPorta is expected to miss time with a knee injury.
Los Angeles also enters the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league, riding momentum into the Wild Card.
Detroit’s defense is suspect and finished the second half of the season ranked 27th in EPA allowed per play. Los Angeles’ offense has been efficient all season and picked up steam in the home stretch, averaging more than 31 points per game from Week 12 to Week 17.
Books varied on their openers, with L.A. ranging from +3.5 (FanDuel) to +5 (DraftKings). Depending on your book, grab as much as you can above the key number of a field goal with the Rams now.
Best odds to bet Rams +4 right now
Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills: Bet Later
The sound of shattering tables is still echoing throughout Upstate New York, as the Buffalo Bills won the AFC East and locked down a home game for the Wild Card Round.
Buffalo opened as low as 7.5-point home chalk for Sunday’s showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers and it didn’t take long for that to climb, jumping as high as -10.5 at some online spots for a moment but settling in around -8.5 to -9.5 in the first minutes of action.
The market consensus will likely park this line just below the key number of -10, helped along by the knee injury suffered by Pittsburgh star pass rusher T.J. Watt in Saturday’s Week 18 win over Baltimore. Watt is expected to miss the Wild Card Round.
Given the Steelers are looked upon as lucky to even be in the tournament and the Bills are boasting one of the most memorable late-season surges, the public appeal will be with the Bills.
While the Bills’ wild win over Miami in Week 18 booked this home game, let’s not forget Josh Allen had three turnovers, and the Dolphins defense was down to a bunch of rusty lawn chairs.
This spread will likely get to Pittsburgh +10 at some point in the coming days. But will it get to +10.5? Wait and see.
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