Wild Card Round NFL Parlay Picks: Rams Make Campbell, Lions Boiling Mad

It's Wild Card weekend in the NFL odds, and the weather could not be more wild. The Dolphins vs. Chiefs weather report suggests that record-cold temperatures could be in store, while the Steelers vs. Bills weather report calls for cold temperatures and strong winds in the aftermath of a blizzard. The Wild Card odds have been impacted drastically.

I think Mother Nature will have a major impact on both those games, even in spite of the latter being postponed from Sunday to Monday, so each one will be featured in my NFL parlay picks. I'm also taking the Texans and Rams to improve upon their Super Bowl odds. Join me as I give out what I hope will be two lucrative NFL parlays for Wild Card weekend! 

Wild Card Round NFL parlay picks

• Texans +1.5 (1H) + MIA/KC u44 + Rams +3 = +559
• Steelers +10.5 + N. Harris o60.5 rush yds + S. Diggs u63.5 rec yds = +430

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Wild Card Round parlay pick

Texans +1.5 (1H)

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Under 44

Rams +3

+559 at FanDuel

FanDuel is on Rams +3 just like every site is as of Friday afternoon, but at -105 rather than -110, making them the go-to destination for this parlay play. But I'll start with the Saturday's early game, in which I expect the Texans to jump out to a halftime lead over the Browns.

Houston has been a solid first-half team this year, outscoring opponents by an average of 11 to 8.9. In the last two games C.J. Stroud suited up for, the Texans leaped out to leads of 20-3 and 14-6, respectively, after two quarters. Cleveland has a positive first-half point differential overall (+1.1), but on the road, it's -3.3. 

Frigid temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium will make the football as hard as a rock, and therefore much tougher to throw and catch when the Dolphins visit the Chiefs. Miami's struggles against winning teams have been well-documented this year and its offense is trending in the wrong direction, averaging 18.3 points over its last three regular season contests. The Fins go from averaging 31.9 points per game at home to 26.1 as a visitor, and the weather will not help.

Kansas City was a modest 15th in points per game in the regular season. Even if you exclude Week 18, where Patrick Mahomes did not play, the Chiefs are averaging only 20.4 points per game over their last five contests.

The Rams are arguably the hottest team in the NFL, with the only loss in their last eight games occurring in overtime when they visited the Super Bowl-favorite Ravens. L.A. is averaging over 28 points per game in that span.

Matt Stafford & Co. will take on a Lions defense that's been a train wreck since their bye week, ranking in the bottom third in the NFL in both defensive EPA/Play and defensive dropback EPA. 

From an intangible point of view, the Lions had a chance to make a statement vs. the Cowboys in Week 17 and failed to do so as head coach Dan Campbell's playcalling went from aggressive to straight-up reckless. Detroit's roster is also much more green when it comes to postseason experience compared to the Rams, who won the Super Bowl just two years ago.

Best Wild Card Round SGP

Steelers +10.5

Najee Harris Over 60.5 rushing yards

Stefon Diggs Under 63.5 receiving yards

30% boost available

+430 +559 at DraftKings

When I gave out this SGP before the postponement of Steelers vs. Bills, the lines were Najee Harris Over/Under 57.5 rushing yards and Stefon Diggs Over/Under 60.5 receiving yards, so the updated lines are a wash. With DraftKings moving from the standard spread from Steelers +9 to +10, the juice I'm paying to get to +10.5 has gone down, improving the odds on this SPG slightly. That's not to mention DraftKings' Wild Card weekend promo that gets you three separate 30% profit boosts to use — one that's all-purpose, one for 4-leg parlays, and one for 4-leg SGPs.

Throwing and kicking the football will remain a difficult task for both sides even with the postponement due to cold and windy conditions. This makes the possibility of a Steelers cover vs. such a big spread much greater. Pittsburgh is built as a run-first team while the Bills are not, which will help the Steelers negate Buffalo's home-field advantage. 

Najee Harris has gotten the bulk of the carries these last two weeks, and downhill running is just what the doctor ordered for a game like this. It's easy to see Harris getting 20 or more carries again and exposing the Bills' 28th-ranked defense by yards allowed per rush.

Stefon Diggs was not a happy camper in the Bills' last home playoff game played in the cold, when the Bengals beat Buffalo 27-10 and held Diggs to a mere 35 receiving yards. An 87-yard effort vs. the Dolphins' reeling pass defense in Week 18 snapped a streak of four straight games of 48 or fewer receiving yards for Diggs, who's gone below 64 yards in seven of his last 11 overall following a flying start to the campaign.

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