Zack Moss Odds and Props for Week 15: Zack Attack

The Indianapolis Colts had their win streak broken in a bad way last week in Cincinnati but are still very much alive in the playoff hunt. They return home this evening to face off against the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. 

The Colts are slight favorites in the Week 15 NFL odds and will be looking to win the battle of 7-6 AFC playoff bubble teams behind the play of Zack Moss in place of the injured Jonathan Taylor. 

We take a closer look at the Zack Moss odds and give our best free NFL picks for Steelers vs. Colts on December 16. Be sure to keep up to date on the Saturday odds and check out our Steelers vs. Colts predictions, along with our Steelers vs. Colts props.

Zack Moss Week 15 prop picks

• Longest reception Over 9.5 yards
• Longest reception Over 9.5 yards + Over 2.5 receptions + Colts -1.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Zack Moss Week 15 prop pick

Longest reception Over 9.5 yards (-106 at Caesars)

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been very hot and cold this season, as it ranks seventh in the NFL in points allowed, but 21st in total yards allowed. It also ranks 21st in both rushing attempts and rushing yards allowed. However, it has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in three of its past four games. 

Zack Moss was very good early in the year in replacement of Jonathan Taylor, as he averaged 111.3 yards per game on the ground in the first four weeks of the season. However, the last two weeks without Taylor have been a different story. Moss averaged 39.5 yards per game on the ground and 2.5 yards per carry. 

Neither of those defenses were great run-stoppers, but the game script did not lean towards a big run game. The Indianapolis Colts needed to play a shootout-style game with the Titans and then fell behind big and had to mount a comeback against the Bengals. This game is unlikely to be high-scoring, so the game script should serve Moss better. 

The one area where Moss has been a bit more consistent is in the passing game. While he does not see a huge volume, he does consistently get around three targets in every game in which he plays most of the snaps. He is also averaging 7.2 yards per reception this season. 

The Steelers have allowed big plays in the passing game to backs out of the backfield this year. They have allowed 12 different backs to have at least one catch of more than 10 yards out of the backfield in 13 games this season. Last week, Ezekiel Elliott had a longest reception of 16 yards and Ty Montgomery had a longest of 17 yards for the Patriots.

Moss has had four games this season in which he has had at least one reception of more than 10 yards in seven games with either no Taylor or a limited Taylor. I think there is an excellent shot that Moss will be targeted at least four times in this game due to heavy pass rush from the Steelers. He is very likely to take at least one for double-digit yards. 

Prop: Longest reception Over 9.5 yards (-106 at Caesars)

Zack Moss Week 15 same-game parlay

Zack Moss longest reception Over 9.5 yards

Zack Moss Over 2.5 receptions

Colts -1.5

+310 at Caesars

There are a couple of plays I like in this game to combine with our best bet for a nice parlay.

We will start with the number of catches I believe we will see from Moss since the yardage total does almost nothing to our odds here. The total is set at 2.5 and based on game script I like the Over here. Moss has seen three games this season with more than three catches and last week saw four catches on eight targets.

Finally, we can finish off this parlay with the Colts to cover the spread. This is a huge game for both teams, but the home team has been playing much better ball as of late. The Colts had won four straight before their road loss last week, while the Steelers lost their third of four games last week against one of the worst teams in the league behind backup quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. 

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