We're running out of adjectives to describe the recent play of the Toronto Maple Leafs. They’ve won 14 of 16 and are coming back home after sweeping a four-game road trip where they outscored their opponents 18-4 and covered the puck line in each win. Wednesday will be their toughest task of late as they host the betting favorites to win the Cup in the Colorado Avalanche, who are 7-1 SU in their last eight.
Can the Leafs get past the West’s best? Can Nathan MacKinnon be cleared to return to the lineup? Find out in our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as -130 favorites on the moneyline with a total sitting at 6 and leaning to the Under. This price is on par with Toronto home games versus the Bruins (-130) and the Lightning (-140).
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-130)
- Prediction: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+135)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs ML (-130)
Predictions made on 11/30/2021 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Avalanche vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Wednesday, December 1, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon F (Questionable), Ryan Murray D (Questionable), J.T. Compher F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Questionable), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2016)
Avalanche: 5-3 SU, 25 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 3-5 SU, 26 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 14-2 SU in their last 16 overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs.
Avalanche vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs have returned home after a road trip that saw them allow just four goals in four games, and two of those games featured backup goalie, Joseph Woll. No team in hockey had a better November than the Maple Leafs who finished the month with a 12-2 SU record and a 1.43 goals-against average. This is hockey’s best team at the moment. They're getting Vezina-style goaltending and the offense is starting to positively regress, just like the metrics forecasted.
The Leafs were the No. 1 team in expected goals before heading off on a four-game road trip but were scoring just 2.58 goals per game, which ranked 25th in the league. The Leafs were still winning games and had won 10 of 12, but one of the best offenses was struggling to bury. Well, the road trip fixed that problem as the Buds managed 18 goals over four games, including 14 at even-strength. The Leafs were a dominant team, but with the offense now rolling at 5-on-5, this is the best and most-rounded team in the NHL.
If Colorado wants to start its five-game road trip on the right foot, it'll have to beat Jack Campbell, who is playing better than any other goalie on the planet. The goalie known as Soup is 12-4-1 on the year and leads the league in GAA (1.64) and save percentage (.946). Colorado scored a league-best 4.94 goals per game in November, but the Leafs haven’t allowed more than two goals in seven straight games.
The Avs’ power play has been rolling of late but the Leafs have a Top-10 penalty kill and killed 14 of 15 penalties at home last month. Also in Toronto’s favor is Colorado’s awful penalty killing that has allowed seven PP goals in its last 15 opportunities. During this incredible 14-2 SU run for the Leafs, their power play is scoring at 30 percent.
Nathan MacKinnon could likely return to the Colorado lineup Wednesday, which wouldn’t be terrible for the Buds as his replacement, Nazem Kadri, has been on fire of late with 24 points in his last 12 games. Nate Mac’s possible return would bump the former Leaf off the top line and likely off the No. 1 PP unit.
This is a perfect test for the Leafs to see where they stand in the Stanley Cup conversation. Coach Sheldon Keefe has this team focused and healthy at home where they are 9-3-1 on the season. We aren't betting against this Toronto team who is 4-0 SU with ML odds of -140 or better since November 3.
Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-130)
Over/Under analysis
Betting the Over on the Leafs has been an unprofitable experience this season as the Buds are a league-best to the Under at 15-8. The goaltending has been too consistent to hit Overs despite the offense heating up. Toronto’s opponents haven’t scored more than two goals in seven straight games. Since the beginning of November, the Leafs have seen just one game where both teams scored at least three goals. That was on the second half of a travel back-to-back with Joseph Woll making his first NHL start.
The Avs are 8-1-1 O/U in their last 10 games but running up the score against teams like Anaheim, Ottawa, Seattle, Vancouver (2x), San Jose, and Columbus doesn’t mean they’ll do it versus the Leafs, who have a league-best 1.43 GAA since November 1.
Of course, both teams are loaded with offensive talent, but Campbell is putting together a historic season, and the Toronto blueline is fresh and gaining confidence while Keefe is comfortable rolling with four lines. The Toronto bench boss also gets the last change and can get the matchup he wants versus the MacKinnon-Rantanen-Landeskog line.
Colorado goalie Darcy Kuemper has a 3.85 GAA over his last four starts and hasn’t looked like a Top-10 netminder this season. The Leafs have shown they can beat some of the league’s hottest goaltenders of late, but we'd rather take the Over on their team total of 3.5 for plus money than the full game Over. Campbell has been too good to bet against.
Prediction: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+135)
Best bet
Before the Leafs’ road trip, they were happy to win one-goal games. Now that the pucks are starting to go in these one-goal games are turning into one-sided onslaughts as Toronto has covered the puck line in four straight.
Colorado has played anything but tight hockey of late despite winning seven of its last eight games. On the season, the Avs sit 24th in GAA at 3.11 and have struggled on the penalty kill. This could easily have them playing from behind against a Toronto team that is 11-1 SU when it scores first. The Avs also have to head to Montreal for a game the following day versus the Canadiens while the Leafs don’t play again until Saturday in Minnesota.
Give us the best team in hockey that still has room to get better.
Pick: Maple Leafs ML (-130)
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