The Toronto Maple Leafs will meet the St. Louis Blues for the second time in eight days after a 5-4 OT win for the Buds. Since then, Toronto has gotten healthier while St. Louis has dropped four of its last five and is missing some key bodies.
The Leafs have been one of the best offensive teams over the last 30 days, but are still being priced as an elite Under team in a game vs. one of the best Over teams. There is value tonight in many Over markets, especially the home side’s team total.
Find out more in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for the Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche.
Blues vs Maple Leafs best odds
Blues vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Leafs’ offense is back on track after a three-game road trip where it totaled 14 goals — including five against Jordan Binnington and the Blues last week. They're also getting healthier, as their two most offensive rearguards, Morgan Rielly and Rasmus Sandin, will both be back tonight.
#Leafs lines at practice Jan. 2/23
— David Alter (@dalter) January 2, 2023
Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Jarnkrok-Tavares-Marner
Kerfoot-Kampf-Engvall
AstonReese-Holmberg-Hunt
Extra: Simmonds
Rielly-Brodie
Girodano-Holl
Sandin-Liljegren
Extra: Benn-Timmins@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR https://t.co/c8E4uG7pnB
Rielly is a point-per-game D-man and will be playing his third game since returning to the lineup while Sandin had eight points in his last 10 games before missing five games.
The addition of the two blueliners makes this a better offensive team as they are two of the team’s best puck movers. Neither player was in the lineup in Toronto’s 5-4 win in St. Louis last week.
The Leafs are just one of three teams that are scoring 4.00 or more goals over the last 30 days at 4.08. The power play is 5-for-14 over the last five games, and they face a St. Louis side that is missing both Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly.
The team is giving up 3.62 goals per game which is a Bottom 10 mark, and O’Reilly’s loss in the faceoff circle could be massive — potentially leading to more offensive-zone possession time for Toronto.
The Blues are one of the best Over teams in hockey at 23-11-3 O/U, and with a negative goal differential of -22, a lot of that blame is on the defense and goaltending.
Jordan Binnington has allowed four or more goals in eight of his last 14 games and has given up 14 goals over his last four. Getting the Leafs’ team total Over 3.5 at a decent price vs. a goalie with a sub-.900 save percentage and a GAA north of 3.00 is a deal for bettors.
The Buds are massive -275 home favorites, but their Over 3.5 team total at -125 is better value than the team’s puck line at -105. If St. Louis can score a single goal, the Over 3.5 is live as Toronto could easily win 4-1 with an empty netter.
Plus, this gives us a few more outs as the Leafs’ goaltending hasn’t been elite coming out of the break and is regressing after an unsustainable start.
My best bet: Maple Leafs' team total Over 3.5 (-125 at bet365)
Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Blues vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Leafs closed as -175 road favorites vs. the Blues last week in a game that the Buds allowed St. Louis to stay alive multiple times. Toronto blew three separate leads before winning in overtime and now it sits as a -275 home favorite after opening at -270. Although the 100-point swing seems excessive, it’s certainly warranted.
In that last game, Toronto was without No. 1 defensemen Morgan Rielly, who has since returned and is back to speed after getting two games in and is back to playing 20 minutes a night. The blue line will also get a boost with Rasmus Sandin set to return tonight, making this the healthiest defense the Buds have had in months.
Those two additions are worth roughly 15-20 points in the moneyline, but the real reason for the steep price that could move to -300, is the health of the visitors.
The Blues were struggling before and after the holiday and now will be without a pair of top-six forwards in Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly — both played vs. Toronto, had a point, played 20 minutes, and had five shots on goal each.
The @StLouisBlues announced O’Reilly and Tarasenko have been placed on IR. The captain has a broken foot and will be re-evaluated in few weeks and Tarasenko has a hand injury and will be dealing for 4 weeks.
— Mark Bland (@markbland) January 2, 2023
Craziness. Hope them to get well too.
This is a rough shorthanded spot for the Blues who aren’t getting help in the goaltending department either and begin a four-game, six-day road trip tonight.
Jordan Binnington has a 3.52 GAA and a .878 SV% over his last 14 games and the netminder has allowed four or more goals in eight of those. He gave up five goals on 37 shots last week vs. the Buds and has a negative goals saved above expected /60 (GSAx/60) on the season, per Money Puck.
The Toronto goaltending hasn’t been great since the restart, but Matt Murray is coming off a two-goal outing vs. the Avalanche on Saturday and should likely get the start.
The Leafs' power play, which has run a five-forward approach of late, is heating up which is bad news for St. Louis and its No. 29 penalty kill. Toronto has scored three times over its last six opportunities with the man advantage and is 5-for-14 on the power play over their last five games.
At the -275 price tag, it’s hard to swallow the juice, but this may be a decent parlay piece for some as it’s hard to trust the Blues who were struggling before the injuries. Now St. Louis will be very shorthanded vs. a Toronto team that is healthy and playing like a Top 5 team in the league.
There is much more value with the Leafs’ team total Over 3.5, which is a very strong play tonight.
Blues vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Leafs are still being priced as an elite Under team and tonight’s total of 6 (-105 to the Over) is still short, in my opinion.
The Leafs’ goaltending has regressed and the offense is better now with Sandin and Rielly back in the lineup. This total closed at the same number and price last week in a game that saw nine goals and hit the Over 15 minutes into the second period.
The losses of Tarasenko and O’Reilly are notable, but the two defensemen returning for Toronto offset that. The Blues are still one of the best Over teams in hockey with a 23-11-3 O/U mark on the season, but it's been because of defense and goaltending more than the St. Louis offense. The Blues rank 24th in xGoal% and in the Bottom 10 in Corsi% and Fenwick%.
At 5-on-5, St. Louis has a worse goal differential than the Flyers, and when it's shorthanded, it has the fourth-worst penalty kill in the league. The Blues should easily be seeing totals of 6.5 and even with the injuries, are worth a bet on the Over any time at 6.
Blues vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 vs. the Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs Maple Leafs.
Blues vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 3, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Midwest, Sportsnet Ontario |
Blues vs Maple Leafs key injuries
