Blues vs Predators Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Niederreiter Takes Advantage

We have a Central Division tilt on Thursday night as the Nashville Predators host the St. Louis Blues. Last season, St. Louis won three of the four meetings between these two clubs.

Will the Blues take care of business once again, or can the Predators grab a victory as a home favorite? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Blues vs. Predators on Thursday, October 27.

Blues vs Predators best odds

Blues vs Predators picks and predictions

The Blues enter this matchup on the second half of a back-to-back after Wednesday night’s 3-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers, which marked their second loss of the season. We can expect backup goaltender Thomas Greiss to take the crease for St. Louis after Jordan Binnington dressed a night ago.

In his lone start this season, Greiss stopped 39 of 42 pucks for a .929 SV% in a 4-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets. While his surface-level stats were good in that game, regression is likely around the corner for the 36-year-old netminder.

First of all, his metrics did not align with those surface numbers as he saved (literally) zero goals above expected at 5v5. If he qualified, he would rank just 20th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.

Secondly, Greiss’ age started to show last season as he had the worst season of his career. Through 31 games, he posted a .891 SV% and 3.66 GAA.

This game is a good spot to sell on him after a strong opening start. Over his last seven against the Preds, he is 0-6-1 with a troubling .844 SV% and 4.40 GAA.

While Nashville should be a decent bet across the board, I'm specifically targeting one of their off-season acquisitions on the NHL props market: winger Nino Niederreiter. Skating on the second line alongside Yakov Trenin and Ryan Johansen, the former Carolina and Minnesota product has had a relatively decent start to the season with four goals and an assist through seven games.

In fact, switching to this line has been a great move by Nashville as it ranks first on the team in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) with 4.47. Bench boss John Hynes just made this switch last game, though we should expect the Preds to stay with it considering the high-danger scoring chances it produced.

Niederreiter has a knack for finding the open space in front of the net, generating 1.21 xGF/60. Going against a backup goaltender on home ice, he should be able to keep it going, especially considering has four points over his last four games against St. Louis.

My best bet: Nino Niederreiter Over 0.5 points (+102)

Blues vs Predators moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Predators moneyline in this contest, but the juice is probably not worth the squeeze at –170. You could go the route of taking the puck line (-1.5 at +160) or their regulation line (+100), but neither of those particularly interests me in this divisional matchup.

Despite its 2-4-1 start to the season, there should be some good opportunities to buy low on a Nashville team that is better than its results. The Preds have not looked good, but it is still a young season for a team that made the playoffs last year and only got better on paper over the offseason.

The books are begging people to take the Blues with this line, which makes sense considering they traveled to Nashville for this game on the second half of a back-to-back and are starting a backup goaltender that has historically struggled against the Preds. However, I am very bullish on St. Louis this season despite the circumstances of this particular game, which I view as more of a coin flip than the -170 line would otherwise suggest.

Blues vs Predators Over/Under analysis

The total is likely set too high at 6.5 given that Juuse Saros is projected to take the crease for the Predators on home ice, although I want no part of an Under with Greiss in net for St. Louis. One of the preseason Vezina Trophy favorites, Saros has gotten off to an uncharacteristically poor start.

Through five games, Saros is 1-3-1 with a .894 SV% and 3.03 GAA. His underlying metrics have also been poor as he ranks just 27th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5.

However, I am not buying this poor start for one of the league’s better netminders. Last season, Saros went 38-25-3 with a .918 SV% and 2.64 GAA.

In fact, he has never finished a season with a SV% south of .914 throughout his six-year career (excluding the one start he made in the 2015-16 season). Like the Preds as a whole, Saros should be a good person to buy low on after a slow start.

Blues vs Predators betting trend to know

Nino Niederreiter has recorded 10 points over his last 13 games against the Blues. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs Predators.

Blues vs Predators game info

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