Canada vs Sweden Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's 4 Nations Face-Off Game

The Canadians have plenty of firepower up front that will more than make up for the question marks in net.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Feb 12, 2025 • 12:07 ET • 4 min read
Sidney Crosby Team Canada
Photo By - Imagn Images. Sidney Crosby dons the Team Canada Jersey.

The NHL takes a two-week layoff for the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off, and the action starts with Canada and Sweden hitting the ice at the Bell Centre in Montreal on Wednesday, February 12.

A loaded Canadian lineup is jumping the boards in front of a home crowd, and my top Canada vs. Sweden predictions and betting picks expect Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon to lead the way to a decisive Canadian win tonight.

Canada vs Sweden prediction

My Canada pick
Canada -1.5 (+110 at BET99)

My Canada analysis
While I don't think Team Canada is icing the best collection of players it could, there’s absolutely no denying the elite talent that’ll lead the way. 

The Canadians have five players who rank inside the Top 11 in 5-on-5 points, including Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Mitch Marner. They also all rank in the Top 5 in overall points for the season.

Canada having the ability for MacKinnon and McDavid to jump the boards and be the go-to scorers on the top two lines will be a nightmare for Team Sweden on Wednesday night. 

There’s a case they’re the two best offensive players in the tournament, but No. 29 and No. 97 also have elite underlying 5-on-5 numbers. McDavid has a dominant 60.3 Corsi For percentage and 60.5 expected goals percentage, while MacKinnon checks in just below with respective 58.3% and 57.2% marks.

The Swedes just don’t have the same offensive skill, with Jesper Bratt and Lucas Raymond their only skaters inside the Top 25 in overall points. For comparison, the Canadians have another six, in addition to MacKinnon, McDavid, and Marner.

Canadian defenseman Cale Makar also headlines a solid collection of blueliners, with goaltending the lone question mark clouding the club. There’s no sugarcoating it, either; Team Canada doesn't have a go-to netminder with international experience or a tendy in good NHL form.

As a result, I’m expecting Sweden to also put a couple past whoever starts for the Canadiens while coming up short in the final score.

Canada vs Sweden same-game parlay (SGP)

Canada moneyline

Over 5.5

William Nylander Over 3.5 shots

Pair the elite offensive talent jumping the boards with the suspect goaltending of the Canadians, and I’m anticipating there to be plenty of goals tonight. Canada starter Jordan Binnington sports an underwhelming .897 save percentage, 2.89 GAA, and -0.15 goals saved above average per 60 minutes.

Additionally, while Sweden doesn’t boast the same high-end scorers or scoring depth as the Canadians, the Swedes will be dangerous. I also expect all four teams to tighten up defensively with team chemistry and attention to defensive detail as the tournament progresses.

Turning to the final leg of this boosted same-game parlay, Swede winger William Nylander is projected to start Wednesday’s game on a line with center Mika Zibanejad and opposite Rickard Rakell, and I’m expecting Nylander to be the go-to shooter of the three. 

Zibanejad has seen his five-on-five shots per 60 minutes decline in three consecutive seasons, and the same can be said for Rakell following his 19-game stint with the Pens during the 2021-22 campaign. I’m also anticipating Nylander being a primary shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit for Sweden, with Filip Forsberg projected to skate with the second group.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Canada vs Sweden odds

Canada Sweden
-233 Moneyline +190
-1.5 (+110) Puck line +1.5 (-130)
Over 6 (-105) Total Under 6 (-115)

Odds courtesy of BET99

How to watch Canada vs Sweden

Location Centre Bell, Montreal, QC
Date Wednesday, 2-12-2025
Puck drop 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Sportsnet, TNT

Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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