After a spirited two-week stretch of winning hockey, the Montreal Canadiens are back to looking like the lottery-bound club they've been all season when they host the Boston Bruins tonight at the Bell Centre.
The Bruins come in winning four of five and bolstered the blueline with a pre-trade deadline acquisition this past weekend, although both rosters (and the NHL betting odds for tonight) could change if any other major moves are made by either club prior to today's 3 p.m. ET trade deadline.
Any potential deals shouldn't really change our free NHL picks and predictions for this Bruins vs. Canadiens matchup, though — read on to see why.
Bruins vs Canadiens odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened Boston -225/Montreal +195 and as of 9:30 a.m. Monday, the Bruins can be found anywhere from -225 to -245 while the Habs sit between +205 and +175 — a number that's closer to the first matchup in November (Montreal closed +214) than the more recent game in January (closed +312), both of which were in Boston. The total opened at 6 and still sits at that number at most operators, with some offering a 5.5 heavily juiced to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bruins vs Canadiens predictions
Predictions made on 3/21/2022 at 12:44 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bruins vs Canadiens game info
• Location: Centre Bell, Montreal, QC
• Date: Monday, March 21, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NHL Network, NESN, Sportsnet, RDS
Bruins vs Canadiens betting preview
Key injuries
Bruins: Patrice Bergeron C (Out), Hampus Lindholm D (Out), Jack Studnicka C (Day-to-Day).
Canadiens: Brendan Gallagher RW (Day-to-Day), David Savard D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Bruins vs Canadiens head-to-head record
Bruins: 2-0-0, 10 goals for.
Canadiens: 0-2-0, 3 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 19-6-1 in the Canadiens' last 26 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Canadiens.
Bruins vs Canadiens picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Puck line analysis
The Montreal Canadiens spent the majority of the season as a doormat for opposing teams, by virtue of having terrible coaching and key injuries to an already talent-thin roster.
After posting a heinous 8-30-7 record to start the season, the Habs began to show life under interim head coach Martin St. Louis, going 9-6-2 since he took over on February 9, including a two-week span where Montreal won seven of eight games. However, with the impending trade deadline looming over the team — minutes-eating defensemen Ben Chiarot and Brett Kulak, along with forwards Tyler Toffoli and Artturi Lehkonen, are already gone while the likes of Jeff Petry and Jake Allen were also in the rumor mill — the Habs have gone back into a swoon, losing four of their last six with the wins coming against fellow sell-off clubs in Philadelphia and Ottawa.
While Montreal has shown some spunk under St. Louis, it's still in dead last in the NHL standings, has already lost some key players (with more potentially going out the door), and is back to being outplayed by better teams... which is exactly what the Bruins are.
Boston, which is currently ninth in the NHL in points (but seventh in the East because the conference is absolutely stacked), has won four of its last five games, most recently a 4-2 win over the Winnipeg Jets — without star center Patrice Bergeron.
Despite being without the veteran pivot, the Bruins dominated that game, posting 5.31 expected goals (per Moneypuck) and 61 shot attempts — the highest total for the team since early January. Boston has posted a positive CF% in 11 of its last 12 games, with the exception being last Wednesday's game at Minnesota when Bergeron's spot was filled by depth center Eric Haula and the Bs posted an abysmal 39.0 CF%.
Head coach Bruce Cassidy opted to go with top prospect Jack Studnicka in that spot against the Jets and the team performed much better, so we can expect him to line up on that top line again tonight, despite being considered day-to-day from soreness after blocking a shot on Saturday.
The only other question, for tonight's roster at least, is whether forward Jake DeBrusk will still be a member of the team. The 25-year-old winger has had a trade request out for months after being unhappy with a depth role and logging just 10 points through his first 25 games. He then posted 16 points in 23 games in January and February, getting elevated to a top-six spot, but has just two points in nine March contests.
He skated alongside Studnicka and Brad Marchand in Boston's last game, so a trade would weaken the Bruins' offensive depth — but not as much as the Habs in trading away Lehkonen (who lead all Montreal forwards in expected goals and CF%) and possibly Petry (who leads the team in minutes per game).
The Bruins are a strong team playing good hockey (despite missing a star player), while the Habs are building for the future and could lose more key players between now and puck drop. Boston won the first two matchups this year by scores of 5-1 and 5-2, and while both of those were at home, we're going to bank on another multi-goal victory for the better team tonight.
Prediction: Bruins -1.5 (+117)
Over/Under analysis
Now, while the Habs have somewhat regressed from their winning ways, they're still playing better hockey overall — especially on offense, seeing their 5-on-5 ranks go from 27th in Corsi For percentage (46.80%) and expected goals for per 60 (2.2) to 15th (49.97% and 2.57 xGF/60) in both categories (per Natural Stat Trick) since St. Louis took over.
The power play has also improved, going from 31st (13.6%) under former coach Dominique Ducharme to cashing in in four straight games and seven of its last nine contests (8-for-40), in large part because St. Louis has been giving ample opportunities to his best offensive talents in Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki — with both players taking full advantage of the opportunity.
| Player | Under Ducharme | Under St. Louis |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 45 GP, 9 G, 27 P, 19:56 TOI/G (2:56 PP TOI/G) | 17 GP, 8 G, 19 P, 21:37 TOI/G (3:48 PP TOI/G) |
| Cole Caufield | 30 GP, 1 G, 8 P, 14:42 TOI/G (2:31 PP TOI/G) | 17 GP, 12 G, 22 P, 18:28 TOI/G (3:40 PP TOI/G) |
As you can see, St. Louis is letting his most dynamic forwards have every chance to score — and they have been doing just that as Montreal has scored at least three goals in nine straight games and 11 and their last 12.
While Boston's Linus Ullmark has been solid over the last month (.931 SV%, 1.66 goals saved above expected), the absence of Bergeron, who is one of the premier defensive forwards in hockey, should open up some room for Suzuki, Caufield, and the rest of the Habs to at least scratch a few goals across.
On the flip side, Jake Allen is expected to make his third start for Montreal since returning from a lower-body injury. He had one good start (stopping 29 of 30 shots against Ottawa) and one bad start (four goals against, .886 SV% versus Dallas) but considering the Bruins offense is closer to the Stars than Senators — and the Habs lost more key defensive players today — we're leaning with the likelihood that Boston hangs a crooked number tonight.
The Bs have seen the total go 4-1 in their last fives games as a road favorite, while the total has cashed in eight of Montreal's last 10 games as a home pup. With the Over 6 available at -105 at some outlets, we're going to grab that now — the price could likely rise if (when?) the Habs ship out some more key guys.
Prediction: Over 6 (-105)
Best bet
The Bruins have been one of the best teams in hockey in terms of getting pucks on net, firing 35.8 shots on goal per game since the beginning of February (third in the league), with winger Brad Marchand being among the most trigger-happy Bruins of them all.
The superstar winger is averaging 4.5 sog per game during that span (most among active Boston skaters), while recently posting sog totals of 4, 5, 6, and 6 over his last four games.
He'll be going against a Montreal team that has conceded at least 30 shots in eight of its last nine games, with Marchand recording 11 sog in his two previous games against the Habs.
Facing a total of just 3.5 sog, we'll happily take the mercurial winger to Over that total tonight — especially at plus money.
Pick: Brad Marchand Over 3.5 sog (+105)
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