After finally getting a convincing win under their belts, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to pause the parade as the best team in hockey, the Boston Bruins, come to Scotiabank Arena tonight with the visitors being priced as the underdog at +110.
With Brad Marchand back, healthy, and producing, can this weak Toronto blueline slow down the league’s No.1 offense, which comes in riding a seven-game winning streak?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Maple Leafs.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs best odds
Bruins vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Brad Marchand returned earlier than expected from hip surgery and the star forward hasn’t missed a beat since suiting back up. He has three goals and an assist over three games, is playing over 19 minutes per match, and has helped the power play go 4-for-11 since joining that dangerous man advantage.
Now, he’ll face a Toronto team he loves to play against (a point per game over his career) and would love to make things worse for a struggling franchise he has terrorized over his career.
All his markets look great today. His power-play point, at +125, is solid considering how much better he makes this unit while the Leafs have been shorthanded 14 times over their last three games. His Over 3.5 shots at plus money is decent, but the Leafs are a good shot-suppressing team.
I think the real value lies in his assist market. He's playing on a line with Patrice Bergeron and Jake DeBrusk at 5-on-5, and both players are more than capable of burying. His power play also consists of David Pastrnak, who is in the Top-5 in shots on goals and shot attempts, while also tucking eight goals. He also sits ninth in assists since 2017, with 263 in 334 total games. He might only have one helper on the season, but they’re coming.
The Bruins and their league-leading offense will find the board today vs. a Toronto blue line that will be featuring Timothy Liljgren in his first game of the season on the second pairing and Justin Holl on the top pairing. This could easily be a multi-point night for Marchand and getting an assist at even money or -110 is the best bet tonight.
My best bet: Brad Marchand Over 0.5 assists (-110 at Sports Interaction)
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Bruins vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Bruins have been the biggest surprise of the season, in my opinion. Many labeled them as the fourth-best team in the division and possibly heading for regression, however, Jim Montgomery’s team has gone 10-1 SU to start the season and even scored five goals in its only loss.
The Bruins lead the league in goals per game at 4.45, have scored the most 5-on-5 goals in hockey, and sit sixth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGAA/60). They’re also doing this without top-pairing defenseman Charlie McAvoy.
The Bruins come in riding a seven-game winning streak, and the wins have come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. They've blown out opponents winning by multiple goals four times over the streak, had a multi-goal comeback (6-5 vs. the Penguins trailing by three), and have won three games in extra time (two in OT and another in a shootout). This is a malleable team that has shown it can play vs. any type of opponent and be successful.
Even their special teams are elite, as they lead the league in penalty kill at 95% and the power play currently ranks 12th, but with Marchand’s return, this will quickly become one of the best PP units in hockey again. As far as perfect teams go, it’s tough to find any problems with this Boston team. The same cannot be said about the Leafs.
The loss of Jake Muzzin on defense has forced the Leafs to give big minutes to players who would be on the third pairing for most other teams. Justin Holl and Rasmus Sandin have tried to do too much in their expanded roles. The Buds will get Timothy Liljgren back tonight but he is a No.5 defenseman at best.
With the lack of talent, Sheldon Keefe has tried to even out his pairings so each duo has a big risk, and facing a Boston team with elite talent in their top six, the Buds’ blue line will get exposed again tonight.
#Leafs lines during practice Nov. 4/22
— David Alter (@dalter) November 4, 2022
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Jarnkrok-Simmonds
AstonReese-Kampf-Malgin
Extra: Robertson, Holmberg
Brodie-Holl
Rielly-Liljegren
Giordano-Sandin
Extra: Mete, Aube-Kubel
Samsonov
Kallgren@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
Toronto will also be starting its fifth different third-line combination in six games tonight as Keefe continuously juggles the lines to try and get something going for an offense that has scored more than four goals just once this year.
Last season, the Leafs were the second-highest scoring team in hockey at 3.80 goals per game and in xGoals/60. This season, with the same offensive core, they sit 21st in goals per game at 2.91 and seventh in xGoals/60. Auston Matthews has just one point at even strength this season and David Kampf leads the team in goals at 5-on-5 with three.
The Leafs have been treading water all season. They’ve given up the first goal in seven of their 11 games and have been very fortunate to have won four games when giving up the first goal.
This moneyline is indicating that the Bruins would be slight favorites if the game were on neutral ice, but I think the Leafs are still being overvalued by the books, and their results after 11 games are indicative of a team with many issues, mainly the talent on the backend.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Leafs are 3-1 to the Over in their last four games but still 3-7-1 O/U on the year. Their only Overs have come against the Flyers, Ducks, and Sharks — three of the worst defensive teams in hockey. Tonight the Leafs have to beat a team that can roll either Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman and have similar results.
Boston is currently allowing 2.55 goals against (5th), 2.3 xGAA/60 (7th) at even strength, and has the best PK in hockey, having killed 37 of 39 penalties. Ullmark is also sporting a .929 save percentage, but he has not been confirmed as of Saturday morning.
The Leafs have been getting decent goaltending out of Ilya Samsonov (confirmed starter) who has a SV% of .920 with a 2.30 GAA. The Toronto goalie might be a little luckier than Ullmark on the season, with a higher goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60), but the young Russian has been one of the lone bright spots for the Buds this year and has been consistent in the crease.
Toronto has been heavily reliant on its power play for offensive production this season, as it's scored with the man advantage in nine of its last 10 games with 11 tallies over that stretch. But the Bs just don’t give up shorthanded markers, having killed off 18 straight and 31 of their last 32.
Boston has seen a closing total of 6 or lower in five of its last 10 games but tonight’s total is teetering on 7 with most books at -125 or -130 on the Over 6.5. If this hits 7, there will be an automatic buyback on the Under, myself included.
With how well the Bruins have been playing and their PK taking away the Leafs’ biggest strength, I’m leaning on the Under 6.5 for plus money and wouldn’t even mind a Toronto team total Under 3.5 at -105.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last five Saturday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs Maple Leafs.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, November 5, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Bruins vs Maple Leafs key injuries
