The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to even their Round 1 series with the Montreal Canadiens Saturday night after losing Thursday’s opener and their captain in the process.
Toronto won’t have the services of John Tavares for Game as he was stretchered off the ice after an accidental collision with Montreal’s Corey Perry. Missing their No. 2 center, the Leafs will have to find motivation or risk heading to Montreal down two games to none.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, May 22, 2021
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA opened Toronto a -170 favorite Friday morning, and by lunch hour today, the Maple Leafs were up to -195, where the moneyline remains at 4:30 p.m. ET. It's almost all Maple Leafs action, at 84 percent of tickets and 91 percent of dollars. The total opened at 5.5 (Under -120) and adjusted a few cents each direction, first to Under -125, then to Under -115, with 65 percent of tickets on the Under and 54 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCanadiens vs Maple Leafs series odds
Canadiens: +120
Maple Leafs: -141
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Canadiens: Jonathan Drouin F (out), Jake Evans F (questionable).
Maple Leafs: John Tavares F (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.
Moneyline pick
It only took 10 minutes for the Leafs to face their first test of adversity in this year’s playoffs. Captain John Tavares got caught by an (accidental) Corey Perry knee to the head that required both teams’ medical staffs to rush to Tavares’ aid. It was as scary of a sight as one will see in a hockey game. Obviously, it took the wind out of the home team’s sails and caused the Leafs to readjust their forward lines.
We’re humming a different tune than before Game 1, as things have changed for Game 2's matchup. Montreal looked comfortable controlling the physical game, which was expected going into the series, but wasn’t expected was the play of Carey Price. We know his track record, but coming off an LBI, a concussion, and not playing more than five games since April 1, we were assuming we wouldn’t see 2020 playoff Price — we were mistaken.
Price is a game-changer when he is on and the Leafs will have to be at their best offensively to score three goals against the Montreal netminder. Sadly, with Tavares unavailable, the Leafs don’t have two great lines to roll out, meaning Montreal can play matchup versus the Auston Matthews line while the remaining Toronto lines try to develop some chemistry on the fly against a stout defensive team.
Toronto’s power play saw one goal, unfortunately, it was by Paul Byron shorthanded and stood up as the game-winner. The Leafs finished 0-for-5 with the man advantage and have hit the panic button as this PP group has nothing going for them.
The Leafs also took four dumb penalties that disrupted their flow as they constantly had to send out the PK units. The North’s top team showed flashes and dictated play for lengths at times, but the opportunistic Habs just held the fort and pounced. It’s a story we’ve seen this year as these two clubs have played each other competitively.
With the unfortunate loss of Tavares and the ripple effects that has on the offense, it’s tough to take the Leafs in regulation (-110). At -167, there isn’t much value on the ML and the same can be said for Montreal +1.5 at -175. With Montreal paying a +145 with a hot goalie and facing a team who just lost its captain and No. 2 center, we have to take the value Saturday night. They were +175 with question marks surrounding Price and facing a healthy Tavares heading into Game 1, so the price adjustment seems minimal.
PREDICTION: Montreal ML (+145)
Over/Under pick
We may seem a little unconvincing on the ML play, but it is much easier to sell Saturday’s Under 5.5.
For starters, both goalies played exceptionally Thursday and created zero second-opportunity chances — that’s right, zero. Per Money Puck, both Price and Toronto’s Jack Campbell allowed zero shots on goal due to rebounds. Both goalies also double their expected freezes, which means no easy tap-ins for either team. Both goalies had great looks at outside shots and slowed the play down by getting a whistle when needed.
For the Canadiens, it’s easy to like their chances at an Under. Price looks great even after so much time off, the PK looks great, and the PP doesn’t. They also lack finishers despite having some of the fastest skaters in the league. Hitting the three-goal mark is not a common occurrence for the Francophones.
Toronto came into this series with very few holes in its game, but the Canadiens showed the Leafs’ weakness after the Tavares injury. The Leafs have spent all season building depth and had so much success with their top two scoring lines. Without JT centering William Nylander and Nick Foligno or Zach Hyman, the Buds looked one-dimensional again in the second and third periods Thursday with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander getting heavy minutes late in the game to no avail.
We’re expecting another close game Saturday night and with the Leafs likely coming out with a purpose, we could see a battle with very little ice given up.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-120)
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs betting card
- Montreal ML (+145)
- Under 5.5 (-120)
Picks made on 5/22/2021 at 6:05 a.m. ET
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