The Montreal Canadiens returned to the win column with a solid 5-1 victory over the Blue Jackets on Saturday, while the overtime luck went against the Edmonton Oilers in their 4-3 OT loss to the Maple Leafs.
Montreal hosts Edmonton at the Bell Centre on Monday, November 18, and our top Oilers vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks expect plenty of goals.
Canadiens vs Oilers prediction
My Canadiens pick
Over 6.5 (-105 at BET99)
My Canadiens analysis
The Montreal Canadiens found a splash of 5-on-5 success last week with seven tallies and a 15.2 team shooting percentage. Still, the underlying numbers highlight the same defensive shortcomings with a 42.68 high-danger scoring chances for percentage and a 46.21 expected goals percentage.
Montreal will have its hands full with an Edmonton Oilers squad that’s scored 17 times across its past four games and still has statistical correction ahead of its 30th-ranked 6.56 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5. For comparison, the Oil were good for an 8.81% mark last season.
The Oilers are also set for improved power-play results. Edmonton ranks 22nd in power-play percentage (17.4%) after posting a top-ranked 29.5 PP% across the prior two seasons.
Additionally, the Canadians are also playing well up a man, with a 10th-ranked 22.2 PP%, and the Oil have the worst penalty-kill percentage (66.0%) in the league.
Of course, goaltending has also been a shortcoming for both clubs. Montreal has the lowest team save percentage (0.881) at 5-on-5, while Edmonton ranks 21st with a .906 mark. I also value the Oilers playing to the Over in three of their past four games.
Canadiens vs Oilers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 6.5
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 assists
Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid has been a force during the noted four-game stretch. He’s recorded 24 shots on 39 attempts while marking the scoresheet 11 times. He’s also sporting an elite 62.7 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 for the campaign, and Montreal has allowed the eighth-most shots per game (30.2) and ranks 30th with a 44.8 CF% at 5-on-5.
Oilers winger Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has picked up an assist in three of the past four games, and he’s projected to be skating alongside McDavid in all situations again tonight. Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid have been on the ice for an elite 8.08 goals per 60 minutes over the past three seasons, and he drops to just 2.86 when he isn’t playing with McDavid.
The duo crushes the fancy stats with a combined 59.5 CF% and 62.6 xGF% at 5-on-5, and as noted, Edmonton's No. 1 power-play unit has statistical correction ahead. Nugent-Hopkins also only has three PP points through 18 games after recording 20+ in each of his last six seasons.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Canadiens vs Oilers odds
Canadiens vs Oilers live odds
Canadiens vs Oilers opening odds
- Puck line: Montreal +1.5 (-115) | Edmonton -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Montreal +205 | Edmonton -250
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Odds courtesy of BET99.
Canadiens vs Oilers trend
The Oilers have played to the Over in three of their past four games. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Oilers.
How to watch Canadiens vs Oilers
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Monday, 11-18-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RDS, Prime |
Canadiens vs Oilers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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