Capitals vs Golden Knights Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Live Dogs in the Desert

The Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights host the Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals in what should be a terrific game. Winners of each of the last four matchups, Vegas looks to continue its success against Washington tonight.

Will the Golden Knights take care of business on home ice, or can the Capitals pull off the road upset? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Capitals vs. Golden Knights on Saturday, January 21.

Capitals vs Golden Knights best odds

Capitals vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

After winning just three of their last seven games, the Washington Capitals look to get back on track with goaltender Darcy Kuemper slated to start in net. A terrific signing over the offseason, Kuemper boasts a .920 save percentage (SV%) and 2.46 goals against average (GAA) through 30 starts for Washington this year.

After a dominant shutout performance over the Coyotes, Kuemper looks to keep his strong season going against Vegas, a team he has shined against. Through 15 career starts against the Golden Knights, he boasts a commanding .937 SV% and 2.08 GAA.

Regression should not be an issue for Kuemper, either, this season. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks ninth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

In front of the Capitals’ netminder is a team that is competent on both ends of the ice, ranking in the top half of the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. 

While Vegas also ranks nearly identical to Washington in both of those metrics, the difference in this contest is found in net, as rookie goaltender Logan Thompson is slated to take the crease for the Golden Knights.

Despite the tremendous start to his rookie campaign, regression has started to hit the young netminder recently, which is not surprising given his metrics. Among starting goaltenders, Thompson ranks 22nd in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

Across his two career starts against the Capitals, Thompson possesses a mere .889 SV%. With two relatively evenly matched clubs set to square off, take the road team with the better goaltender at plus money.

My best bet: Capitals moneyline (+105 at Barstool)

Capitals vs Golden Knights moneyline analysis

Another reason to back Washington is that these two teams are trending in opposite directions in terms of injuries. The Capitals are starting to get everyone back in the lineup while the injuries are starting to pile up for Vegas.

For Saturday’s contest, the Knights are expected to miss Mark Stone, William Carrier, Shea Theodore, Zach Whitecloud, and Daniil Miromanov, among others. The Golden Knights are missing a ton of pieces in this game, and most of its defensive talent, when you consider Stone’s importance as a two-way forward and the absence of three starting defensemen.

Keeping in mind that Thompson is currently in a regression period, as his surface-level stats are starting to dip down to where his underlying metrics say he should be, Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals should be able to take advantage and bury the biscuit often in this contest.

Capitals vs Golden Knights Over/Under analysis

With the defensive injuries to Vegas and Thompson regressing between the pipes, I would lean toward the Over in this game. However, I do not want to pull the trigger on the Over, given that Kuemper is projected to start across the ice for Washington.

Any way you look at it, Kuemper has been terrific for the Capitals this season. His surface-level stats are incredibly strong while his underlying metrics suggest he is playing at exactly the level we should expect.

Add into the mix that he has consistently fared well against the Golden Knights, and he should be able to shut them down once again.

Capitals vs Golden Knights betting trend to know

The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Golden Knights.

Capitals vs Golden Knights game info

Capitals vs Golden Knights key injuries

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