Ducks vs Golden Knights Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Vegas Rolls in Low-Scoring Affair

Three of the last four matchups between Vegas and Anaheim have resulted in the Under and you should expect more of the same tonight — find out why in our NHL betting picks below.

Tony Sartori - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Feb 12, 2023 • 09:04 ET • 4 min read
Adin Hill Vegas Golden Knights NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Concluding Sunday's NHL slate is a Pacific Division tilt between the first-place Vegas Golden Knights and eighth-place Anaheim Ducks.

 Low-scoring contests have been a trend when these two clubs collide, with five or fewer total goals scored in three of the last four meetings.

Will that be the case again tonight or will scoring pick up? Find out in our NHL betting picks for Ducks vs. Golden Knights below.

Ducks vs Golden Knights best odds

Ducks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

The Anaheim Ducks have been involved in lower-scoring contests recently, with six or fewer total goals scored in three of their last four games. The biggest reason for this stretch of low-scoring games is Anaheim’s uninspiring offense, which is not a surprise given its offensive metrics.

At 5-on-5, the Ducks rank 29th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). It has been a (depending on your point of view) disappointing campaign for Anaheim, a product of an extremely weak lineup without any depth.

Mason McTavish is coming into his own, the team knows what it has in Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, and Adam Henrique continues to serve as a solid veteran presence. Outside of those four guys, Ducks fans have not had much to be proud of this year other than the fact that they could win the draft lottery and draft Connor Bedard.

To make matters worse for Anaheim, it placed Terry on injured reserve on Friday with an upper-body injury. On the flip side, the Vegas Golden Knights’ offense has gone stale over the last month, particularly with the lack of production from the top-six forwards.

Like the Ducks, Vegas is dealing with a key injury as star winger Mark Stone is out indefinitely after undergoing back surgery. However, this team continues to dominate defensively.

At 5-on-5, the Golden Knights rank fourth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). With this combination of strong defensive play and a struggling offense, there have now been six or fewer total goals in 10 of Vegas’ last 12 games.

Backing up this strong blue line is goaltender Adin Hill, who is projected to start in the crease on Sunday. Entering this contest in dominant form, Hill is 3-2 with a .934 save percentage (SV%) and 1.98 goals against average (GAA). There were six or fewer total goals scored in four of those five outings.

This strong play will likely continue against Anaheim, a team he's fared extremely well against previously. Across six career outings against the Ducks, Hill is 4-0-1 with a .907 SV% and 2.82 GAA.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

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Ducks vs Golden Knights moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Golden Knights’ puck line in this contest, especially against the lowly Ducks. Vegas is better offensively, defensively, on special teams, in net, and behind the bench.

However, I have no interest in laying 40 cents of juice on a -1.5 puck line. While the Knights’ have struggled without Stone in the lineup, they are starting to adapt after rattling off two straight 5-1 victories.

I am not taking a side in this game because I love the Under at 6.5. However, if I had to choose, it makes sense why Vegas is such a long favorite as they should take care of business on home ice.

Ducks vs Golden Knights Over/Under analysis

My main concern with taking the Under in this contest is Anaheim’s defense and goaltending. While the Ducks are terrible offensively, they are just as bad defensively and in net.

At 5-on-5, Anaheim ranks last in the league in xGA/60. Backing up this poor blue line is goaltender John Gibson, who's had a difficult campaign.

We cannot put a ton of blame on Gibson, who has been below-average in his own right but has to put up with a defense that allows almost 40 shots on goal per game. However, since the Ducks also struggle to score, we could see yet another 5-1 Vegas victory.

Ducks vs Golden Knights betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 10 of the Knights’ last 12 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Ducks vs Golden Knights.

Ducks vs Golden Knights game info

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Sunday, February 12, 2023
Puck drop: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports SoCal, AT&T SportsNet

Ducks vs Golden Knights key injuries

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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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