There are a couple of key similarities between the Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche.
Both teams control five-on-five possession while limiting the opponent’s shots. Calgary ranks seventh in Corsi For percentage (52.9%) while allowing the fourth-fewest 5-on-5 shots per 60 minutes (27.3), while Colorado sports respective ranks of sixth (53.3%) and 10th (28.1).
What separates the two Western Conference teams in the NHL odds on Monday is goaltending, and that's where I'm turning my attention with my NHL player props for the matchup. The Flames have been without No. 1 netminder Jakob Markstrom since he sustained a fractured finger Monday, Dec. 1, while Colorado Avalanche No. 1 is set for statistical correction following a so-so start.
Add Colorado in dire need of a victory after winning just one of its past six games, and it isn’t surprising to see the Avs trading as a sizable NHL odds home favorite.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Flames vs. Avalanche game on Monday, December 11.
Flames vs Avalanche odds
Flames vs Avalanche predictions
Colorado Avalanche No. 1 goalie Alexandar Georgiev is a prime candidate for positive regression. His .900 save percentage and 2.86 GAA are notably worse than last year’s .918 and 2.53 marks, and the Calgary Flames are a ripe opponent for statistical correction, too.
The Flames rank 24th in goals per 60 minutes despite attempting the eighth most shots and recording the 13th most. Additionally, a quick peek at the Calgary lineup showcases a lack of proven scorers, so I consider their 23rd-ranked 9.2 shooting percentage on point.
I also value Colorado’s recent dip in shot suppression.
| Shots allowed per 60 | Shot attempts allowed per 60 | |
|---|---|---|
| First 21 games | 28.08 | 55.21 |
| Last six games | 32.95 | 60.38 |
As a result, it all adds up to a target-worthy 26.5 total. I have Georgiev projected to comfortably clear the number with wiggle room for him to let in a muffin, or Colorado to tighten up defensively and allow a couple fewer shots than they have across their past six games.
| SIA odds | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -120 | 29.7 | -162 | 13% |
My best bet: Alexandar Georgiev Over 26.5 saves (-120 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Flames vs Avalanche same-game parlay
Avalanche moneyline
Under 6.5 goals
Mikko Rantanen anytime goal
As noted, the Avs are skidding along an uncharacteristic 1-3-2 stretch, and Colorado has the luxury of drawing the Flames without Markstrom. Calgary is 5-5-1 with an underwhelming .885 team save percentage. Additionally, if it is Daneil Vladar in net for the Flames, he sports a confidence-shattering -5.6 goals saved above average across his eight starts.
The Avs moneyline and the Under 6.5 goals both correlate with Georgiev having a solid game and recording Over 26.5 saves. And, finally, Mikko Rantanen is sludging along a nine-game goal drought despite there being just a slight downtick across two key goal-scoring metrics.
| Individual expected goals per 60 | Individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 | |
|---|---|---|
| First 18 games | 1.14 | 3.41 |
| Last nine games | 0.84 | 3.32 |
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Flames vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There’s been limited movement to the moneyline for this game at SIA. The Avs opened at a -185 favorite, and they’ve since moved to -175 chalk. Movement to the Calgary side is consistent with other sportsbooks, too.
The total has been just the opposite. There was a major move from 6.5 to a consensus 6.0 on Monday morning. I don’t suspect we’ll see the number fall any further, but it is notable that the Under is carrying the higher vig at SIA as of Monday afternoon.
Flames vs Avalanche betting trend to know
Colorado has an active 5-1 streak against Calgary, and the Under has hit in five of those six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Avalanche.
Flames vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, December 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Altitude |
Flames vs Avalanche latest injuries
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