The Los Angeles Kings host the Calgary Flames at Crypto.com Arena on Saturday, and the Flames will look to make it four consecutive wins as a road underdog in the NHL odds.
Los Angeles has been a juggernaut, and the Kings have climbed the Stanley Cup odds lists while battling the Vancouver Canucks for top spot in the Pacific Division.
The Flames haven’t been as hot.
Calgary’s current three-game winning streak is its longest of the season, and the Flames will need the victories coming to avoid missing the playoffs for a second consecutive year.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Flames vs. Kings matchup on Saturday, Dec. 23.
Flames vs Kings odds
Flames vs Kings predictions
The Los Angeles Kings rank No. 1 in my defense rankings, and they also check out atop the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.2). Add ranking second in Corsi For percentage (56.5%) at five-on-five and second in penalty-kill percentage (86.8%), and I’m expecting the Calgary Flames to have trouble hitting the scoreboard Saturday.
Calgary has been more ho-hum defensively, but a lot of the shortcomings can be chalked up to poor goaltending. The Flames had the second-worst team save percentage (.896) at 5-on-5 through the first 31 games of the season. But, now, No. 1 goalie Jacob Markstrom is back and healthy.
Markstrom has stopped 58 of 59 shots the past two games since returning from a fractured finger. He posted a .914 save percentage and 2.62 GAA across 328 games from 2015-16 through 2021-22, so I’m expecting the veteran to settle into a groove considering the Flames drive possession (51.5 CF%) and limit chances (2.46 xGA) at 5-on-5.
I also envision both the Kings and Flames holding their cards close to their chests while limiting mistakes and playing conservatively on Saturday. Both teams are generally disciplined, with Los Angeles taking the 12th-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 and Calgary the sixth-fewest.
As a result, I’m expecting goals to be few and far between, and especially early. I prefer the Under 1.5 first-period goals compared to the Under 6.0 goals for two reasons:
- 1. The odds for Under 6.0 are -115 compared to -105 for the first-period Under
- 2. Calgary has scored the seventh-fewest first-period goals (25 through 33 games)
My best bet: Under 1.5 first-period goals (-105 at SIA)
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Flames vs Kings same-game parlay
Kings moneyline
Under 1.5 first-period goals
Under 6.5 goals
The Under 6.5 goals correlates with my best bet, and I have the Kings winning this game 64.8% of the time (-184). Los Angeles is ripe for statistical correction with an unsustainably low 2.96 shooting percentage at 5-on-5 during its active 2-3-1 slump, so the goals are coming.
Additionally, while I expect Markstrom to continue playing well, he’s not going to continue turning away 98.3% of the shots he faces.
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Flames vs Kings moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This moneyline hasn’t seen significant movement since opening. The Kings were listed as a -160 favorite through SIA, and there has only been a slight adjustment to make it Los Angeles -155 as of Saturday morning. The total has seen a similar small move to the Under. It opened at Under 6.0 -110, and is now listed at -115.
Flames vs Kings betting trend to know
The Under has cashed in six of the past seven Los Angeles games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Kings.
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Flames vs Kings game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 23, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, BSW |
Flames vs Kings latest injuries
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