The NHL betting board for Thursday is highlighted by Round 4 of the Battle of Pennsylvania, as the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins renew hostilities yet again.
These clubs faced off two days ago, with the Penguins winning despite being lofty home underdogs, and NHL betting lines have Pittsburgh in the same situation again.
Will tonight render a different result? See what we think in our free NHL picks and predictions for Flyers vs. Penguins, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins betting preview
Injuries
Flyers: Isaac Ratcliffe RW (Out).
Penguins: Jason Zucker LW (Out), Brian Dumoulin D (Questionable), Evan Rodrigues LW (Questionable), Mark Jankowski C (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Penguins.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonEarlier this afternoon, the Flyers were taking 65 percent of moneyline tickets and 72 percent of moneyline cash at FanDuel. But since then, Penguins star Sydney Crosby was cleared from COVID protocols, so he should play tonight. Philadelphia opened -126, moved to -134 overnight, returned to -126 midafternoon, then dipped to -118 on the Crosby news out of Pittsburgh. All that said, the Flyers are still landing 65 percent of bets and 75 percent of money. The total didn't move from the pre-Crosby-news price of 6.5 (Under -134), with 71 percent of tickets/69 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
(Editor's Note: The picks for Flyers vs. Penguins were made prior to Thursday afternoon's news that Sidney Crosby would be activated by Pittsburgh in time for their game against Philadelphia.)
Everything was pointing up for the Flyers: They were riding a three-game win streak and finally got all their star forwards back into the lineup heading into Pittsburgh Tuesday. They were facing a Penguins team they destroyed in each of the first two games of the season—and they wouldn't have to face Sidney Crosby to boot.
So, obviously, the result of the game was a 5-2 Pittsburgh win. Duh.
It was a disappointing loss for Philadelphia, especially when you factor in how they dominated play: The Flyers outshot Pittsburgh 42-27, had a Corsi For Percentage of 58 percent, a 57.6 percent Fenwick For rate, won 61.5 percent of faceoffs, and had 55.2 percent of draws in the offensive zone. Simply put, they just outplayed and outworked the Penguins, but were stymied by stellar goaltending from Pittsburgh's Tristan Jarry—while not getting an adequate performance from their own netminder, Carter Hart.
That said, the 40-save performance by Jarry was more the exception than the rule this season, as he owns a 3.06 goals-against average and .900 save percentage on the year. The Pens will again be without Crosby for tonight's game, and I expect the Flyers' big guns, namely Travis Konecny and Jakub Vorachek, to be firing on all cylinders after recently returning from lengthy absences.
The Flyers were -125 favorites on Tuesday and oddsmakers weren't swayed too much by that result, as they sit at the same number right now. Back the Broad St. Bullies to bounce back.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia ML (-125)
Over/Under pick
As mentioned above, Hart did not have a good performance Tuesday, which has been indicative of his season.
In what was supposed to be the season where he establishes himself among the league's true elite, Hart instead has had a disastrous start to the year. After posting a 2.42 goals-against average and .914 save percentage last season, the 22-year-old Hart has a dismal 3.49 GAA and .893 SV% through 14 games this season.
Some of it has been shoddy defense in front of him (case in point: four of Pittsburgh's goals Tuesday came in front of the net or the slot), but as Charlie O'Connor from The Athletic points out, a good chunk of his goals allowed have come on the high glove side, as well as coming as a result of rebounds. This has led to Hart posting a quality start in just 46.2 percent of his outings so far, while having a negative-6.1 goals saved above average.
On the flip side, Jarry is coming off a great start, but it was the fourth time he's ever faced 40+ shots...and the first time he's given up fewer than three goals.
I expect the Flyers to keep up the pressure on the banged-up Penguins, with Jarry unlikely to repeat Tuesday's effort, while Hart is still trying to regain his form from the past two seasons. The Over has also cashed in three of Pittsburgh's last four games, five of Philly's last six against teams with winning records, and each of the last four head-to-head matchups. Back it again tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 6 (-120)
Flyers vs Penguins betting card
- Philadelphia ML (-125)
- Over 6 (-120)
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