I’m coming off a night where I went 1-2 SU in this article but played all power-play points and cashed a +350 prop, so a profitable day here on Wednesday. I’m taking a different approach today with more to choose from in a 10-game slate.
Tonight, I’m continuing to back the St. Louis offense, getting a first-line center at great plus money for a point, pivoting on the Leafs, and looking at their team total instead of their moneyline.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Thursday, January 9.
NHL prop picks and best bets for January 9
Saad + Buchnevich + Thomas o0.5 points each (+375 at bet365)
Cozens o0.5 points (+140 at bet365)
Maple Leafs TT o3.5 (+210 at bet365)
Picks made on 1-9 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Brandon Saad + Pavel Buchnevich + Robert Thomas Over 0.5 points each
The St. Louis Blues have been a great team to stack. They are one of the only teams in hockey that play their first line all on PP1 and their second line all on PP2. At home, vs. the Anaheim Ducks, I’m stacking the first line of Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, and Brandon Saad. Saad is +135 for a point alone and helps boost this stack that is +375.
Saad is the toughest member of this stack but is also coming off a three-goal game last week and helped stack this line with an assist on Tuesday in the 6-4 loss to Minnesota. I always prefer taking first lines over second lines at home as that top line always gets the better matchups.
The Ducks have dropped seven straight games to the Blues and have given up 34 total goals over those defeats. The Blues also have a brutal penalty kill of late so the offense might have to stay engaged. Outside of the Columbus game, this is my next favorite Over game on the slate.
Prop bet #2: Dylan Cozens Over 0.5 points
The Ottawa Senators are a bad team without Linus Ullmark bailing them out. Without their top goalie who is on IR, Ottawa is 7-12 SU with a sub-.890 save percentage. Anton Forsberg has dropped back-to-back games and Buffalo might see Leevi Merilainen who has save percentages of under .860 in three of his four starts.
That is all pushing me to back the Buffalo Sabres offense tonight. Dylan Cozens is centering the top line and with Buffalo coming off a 4-3 shootout win vs. a good Washington team, the lines will likely stay together. Somehow, he is +140 for a point tonight and although he plays on the second power play (the only true stack is Tage Thompson and Jason Zucker), this is still a giant price for a first-line center.
Cozens is playing nearly two more minutes per game on this top line vs. his season numbers where I think the books are getting this number.
Prop bet #3: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5
I love the Toronto Maple Leafs moneyline at +145, but they are also paying +210 to score four goals tonight. Hell, their Over 2.5 team total is a very reasonable -120 for those not wanting to take a big swing.
The Carolina Hurricanes are being overvalued in the market right now. This is a .500 team over the last 30 days at 7-7 with a plus-1 goal differential. They’ve received awful goaltending from Pyotr Kochetkov who is 4-7 SU over his last 11 games (30 days) and Toronto is riding a five-game winning streak and looking like the best form of themselves in years.
The Canes have allowed 3+ goals in six of their last eight games and 4+ in four of those against the Wild, Blue Jackets, Devils, and Predators. I think the Leafs' offense will continue to roll after a physical home-and-home with Philadelphia.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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